João Guimarães's avatar

João Guimarães

35 points

Vs this range we have 47.35% equity and it´s a no brainer call: 88,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,AsKd,AsQd

Vs this range we still have 40.45% equity, still a call:

He had the 7d6d, so my range mimics more or less what I think he would have that beats me + the worse hands.
Fish can have random junk some % of the time, but can´t be sure of a number so I´m letting it out.

June 10, 2022 | 2:20 p.m.

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (8 Players) MP+1: $12.65 (Hero)
CO: $12.79
BN: $20.44
SB: $10.00
BB: $12.31
UTG: $3.04
UTG+1: $10.00
MP: $4.26
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP+1 with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.24, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.38, Hero raises to $1.60, BB calls $1.22
Flop ($3.25) 5 A 8
BB checks, Hero bets $2.40, BB calls $2.40
Turn ($8.05) 5 A 8 4
BB bets $8.31 and is all in, Hero calls $8.31
River ($24.67) 5 A 8 4 6

June 10, 2022 | 1:31 p.m.

The moment I jammed, I realized the blunder. Not a few days ago, I remember watching a video of a session review where the student has top set IP, flop two tone it goes x b c flop, turn completes the flush and a str8 is possible, x b c again, then river comes the 4th flush card and also 4th str8, villain donk jams and hero says: I know you have the nuts, show me, I´m not folding, then calls and yeah, villain has it. Here it´s not the same thing but I think the mental leak is related for sure.

June 9, 2022 | 2:10 a.m.

emsterdad Yeah, 10nl. He can call with worse, sure, and maybe a flop cbet would be better exploitatively since he is passive and it is the fish who usually stabs uncontrolably. Facing a shove would be a very tough spot for sure on the flop, but since he can´t represent much value that beats me I would call, think this datapoint >>> the passivity and underbluffness of the spot, and ppl get on tilt sometimes. Semi bluff shoving IP on the flop don´t make much sense imho, so it´s close :)

June 8, 2022 | 12:23 p.m.

Sorry, KK and QQ out of the equation obv, my mistake :)

Equity of 55 goes bigger vs the range above without those 2 holdings. Also, villain is a nit 3bettor, but still he might be 3betting some suited A´s. Considering this, I inputted the following range:


*Villain doesn´t 3bet much and showed up with Ac2c, hence so many suited Ax of clubs in his calling range.

Equity vs those holdings came up to 44.44%.

June 7, 2022 | 8:13 p.m.

That is a risk, but the x/r makes the pot bigger when they stab. And in my experience the stabbing frequency isn´t that low to begin with. Maybe my x/r sizing was too low to make the EV high enough vs making the flop cbet?

But my strategy, for simplification purposes, is to usually x range on most boards. Guess I´m probably losing more EV on this particular flop texture, but on most the loss is low enough and the strategy simpler enough that I can execute it more accurately.

June 7, 2022 | 8:05 p.m.

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (7 Players) BN: $10.32
SB: $11.79
BB: $14.81
UTG: $17.38
UTG+1: $8.35
MP: $10.00 (Hero)
CO: $25.42
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with 5 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.24, CO calls $0.24, 3 folds
Flop ($0.63) K 5 Q
Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, CO calls $0.60
Turn ($2.43) K 5 Q 2
Hero bets $1.90, CO calls $1.90
River ($6.23) K 5 Q 2 9
Hero bets $6.96 and is all in, CO calls $6.96

June 7, 2022 | 4:07 p.m.

Idk, would be a candidate, at least at some frequency, if it was vs a normal reg. Not sure if a light 4 bet range vs a recreational is the better option tho.

Maybe I´m wrong, but exploitably speaking it always looked better to flat more vs this type of 3bet sizing and play for the implied odds.

June 3, 2022 | 4:48 p.m.

Exploit Warrior What confused me so much was that I thought the same thing. He has KK here and nothing else. I thought better and I don´t really think he has many or any 7x with a 3.3% overall 3bet (even BvB). Very small chance he still has because passive recs min 3bet weird holdings for no reason sometimes. What real bluff does he have that bets flop, b/c turn then raise river? He´d have to turn pairs into a bluff, and this rec doesn´t seem able or willing to do it.

June 3, 2022 | 11:22 a.m.

Villain plays 24/9 with a 3.3% 3bet frequency, and 2.6 overall postflop AF, over 153 hands. A bit tight, but after the sizing he used as a 3bet, I marked straight away as a nitty rec.

June 2, 2022 | 4:07 p.m.

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BB: $12.63
UTG: $11.07
MP: $11.09
CO: $10.00
BN: $8.94
SB: $13.23 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with 7 A
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.30
Flop ($1.20) 7 2 4
Hero checks, BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40
Turn ($2.00) 7 2 4 7
Hero checks, BB bets $0.60, Hero raises to $2.10, BB calls $1.50
River ($6.20) 7 2 4 7 K
Hero bets $3.20, BB raises to $9.53 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $12.03
Rake is $0.57

June 2, 2022 | 4:03 p.m.

KKillerss Sometimes I play for some weeks and then it comes to my mind: I should play 6-max as my main game, it´s the future, full ring is dying since 2000, most training material is for that format and blahblahblah :) then I play a few hands, like 500-1k or so and just can´t stand the format. Thought it was my nittiness also but no, I just can´t stand it. I´m just a weirdo and, contrary to everyone else, I find 6-max boring and full ring pretty cool.

ElSquancho Actually yes, I considered it a lot, only reason I didn´t do it yet is bc the first level at stars is NL50 and I´m not rolled for it. I´m close though.

May 3, 2022 | 8:04 p.m.

Long time no updates, so here we are again :)

Started last month at 25nl, didn´t work very well, so ended up playing it safe at 10nl. Not proud of myself, but finally made what might be the biggest decision pokerwise, maybe a turning point ( bit melodramatic I know): got a coach. Better yet, a coach who also believes in exploitative poker like I do and is also a fanboy of Nick Howard lol.

Anyway, even though he can´t convince me 6-max is the way to go (no one can, really), other than that he believes with my current knowledge + a few (important) changes in how I approach the game + a bit of self confidence and letting the bankroll nit tendencies behind, and I have a chance of reaching at least 100nl this year.

Hopefully at the end of this month I´ll be able to make a very good update. Fingers crossed.

May 2, 2022 | 4:27 p.m.

Congratulations :)

April 16, 2022 | 12:39 p.m.

It is indeed. Campeche and Campeche Island, Florianópolis SC :)

April 14, 2022 | 3:10 p.m.

So, 25nl didn´t go so well, ran bad, played bad, spewed, and I´m back to 10nl to reevaluate things. I won't be stuck there tho, just want to get my mindset in good shape before trying again.

One thing I really love to do here is hiking. It really helps my mind, is obv good exercise, the fresh air, nature and ofc the views. We have this hill here in my neighborhood with really gorgeous views of the beach, the ocean and that small little island lol, can´t really get tired of it :)

April 12, 2022 | 8:24 p.m.

My impressions so far on a small 25nl sample:

Plenty of real nits (think 13/5 guys at a 9-max table). I assume it should trend to less than 10nl, but still it's a lot more than I would expect.

Most regs are weak tight.

A bit less recreationals, but plenty of them, and no difference on skill levels.

I expect regs to be more adjusting prone (as a whole) than at 10nl, simply bc huds are more affordable in relation to the buy-in. A solid game plan should be enough imho to not see any real difference other than a smaller winrate ofc.

March 28, 2022 | 1:53 p.m.

KKillerss I know you guys are right, though I agree also that I should play the higher stakes when I feel I'm in a good state (in the zone etc). But yeah, I want to move up, my rational mind knows I should move up, and also I´m ready to do it.

I decided I will treat my game even more seriously. From now on, I will record all my sessions, and will talk thru all my decisions. From past experience, and just pure logic, I know this will dramatically increase my chances of play my A-game, and also of improving faster bc there will be less autopiloting. Reviewing hands while also listening my thought process should be a good thing also imho.

One of the aha moments I had a few years ago was that poker as a sport suits me better, and having sessions recorded seems like something any serious athlete seeking elite status on any sport should be doing.


March 27, 2022 | 7:26 p.m.

Thank you GEOabc , I have a firm belief that we can´t really achieve good things in poker without studying and learning the technical stuff (whether it´s theory, exploits, or both, it´s up to the particular style of the player. btw mental is technical also imo). Though I was saying it as "I´m way more in studying than I was a few years ago", because I was really bad back then, wasn´t studying and didn´t even know what studying was, subscribing to a coaching site didn´t cross my mind bc I thought they were suitable only for small stakes++, and was a winning 2nl/5nl player only because I was lucky enough to find a strategy that wins at those limits without losing more money as I had to as a full beginner, is easy/doesn´t require advanced thinking, and is forgiving to the many rookie mistakes I was consistently making. That is, ABC poker :)

March 25, 2022 | 6:14 p.m.

This is my graph since I started this blog until today. Just cleared my 40 USD challenge, feeling a bit drained from poker and want a week off, so great opportunity to do just that. But it will be a week off from playing, still want to do lab work. Next month will be NL25 exclusively, and I firmly believe my A-game beats it. Just have to make sure that I'll play my A-game consistently.


March 25, 2022 | 1:48 a.m.

Hey ElSquancho Aquila Thank you so much, hugely appreciate it, will def look at the books and the app.

March 23, 2022 | 5:07 p.m.

Yeah, meditation is something I want to incorporate into my routine since forever. I need to start, after I do it, maintaining won't be hard (was the same with lots of other things in my life, so I'm sure it will be the same with meditation). Thank you very much for the advice Demondoink

freenachos You're right, but it works the other way around too :) From 700,000 to 1,100,000 was me taking shots at 10nl and failing every single time, then going back to 5nl and repeating it. I mean, the scar tissue from this phase made me more risk averse than I should be. I have a better game, better processes, I´m way more into the studying/technical part of the game, and my mental game in all other aspects of the game improved a lot (back in the old days a failed shot would mean quitting poker for good, just to return a few months later and starting from ground zero).

I'm reading your blog, still in the beginnings (the 2019 recap post), but just loving it.

I know all of you guys are right, and I also know (rational mind) I will succeed. I just need the courage to start.

March 21, 2022 | 1:50 p.m.

Maybe I should just make a leap of faith here? :) Btw I did it when moving up from 2nl to 5nl, stayed a whole month without looking at results and just (tryed to) play same game, and it worked. So I could do the same and hope for the best again.

March 17, 2022 | 12:34 p.m.

Thank you very much for the advice, many people already pointed that I should be moving up way faster, and yet I'm still with these mental blocks. I know I´m not the only one suffering with this kind of issues, so if anyone reading this found a way to overcome it, feel free to post. (I mean, aversion to moving up, too nitty BRM, low confidence etc).

Those very well written/reasoned posts is what I´m really looking for, having a blog here at RIO. Really cool to have those at the start of my blog already :)


March 17, 2022 | 12:27 p.m.

Hello boys and girls, I finally decided to make my own RIO blog. Had quite a few on another well known forum, and although I was very lucky that most of my followers were very nice people, many even with nice blogs, RIO has a much more professional atmosphere and I think this suits me better.

My name is João and I´m a brazilian part time (but still very serious) poker player. I´m playing this game for a very, veeeeeeery long time, and even though I´m an overall winner at the main stakes I play, it took too many hands, too many years, too much effort, too much tears and quite some $ invested in poker related stuff (including this training site ofc).

100% of this is

I found poker a long time ago, by watching High Stakes Poker on TV, and began playing with play money right away. Took a few years to get brave enough to make my first real money deposit. Lost most of the (thankfully small) deposits, until I decided to start from the smallest stake - 2nl, focus on No Limit Hold'em and look for a way to be a winner on this game. At 2+2 found some very good posts which helped me a lot, and also got my hands on Blackrain's CTM book, and this is where the graph above begins.

Moving up from 2nl to 5nl, I did manage to win from the beginning, but my winrate dropped so much that I began to develop some bad mental habits. Anyway, bankroll was still growing, with more hiccups than I would like but growing nonetheless. Moving up to 10nl was like hitting a concrete wall. Believe it or not, took me almost 5 years of thinking, studying, playing, countless shots followed by frustration and having to move down to regrind, to begin winning. And it's supposed to still be one of the "easy" limits lol.

Used a lot of resources along the way, and all have their fair share of participation on my turnaround: 1) PokerSnowie; 2) Many subscriptions of RIO Essential; 3) The Grinder's Manual; 4) FTGU; 5) Finding a select few very nice players to talk about the game; 6) Putting my hands on GTO+; 7) Hand2note; 8) Nick Howard, his blog (including his brother's one), his Elite videos and especially the countless hours of valuable free content on youtube.

I still have lots of leaks on my game, obviously (if not, I'd be playing higher stakes by now, and winning way more at 10nl), but since August last year everything more or less clicked and this year I´m already winning at about 8 evbb/100 over a (lolsample) of 50k hands. Since the best players (better said, biggest winners) at my stake and format are achieving 10 bb/100+, and I'd already studied their games and it's not really rocket science, it's not perfect game 100% GTO approved, but more like a very exploitative (and exploitable) game. I'm very confident that if I keep the effort, keep good habits, keep improving, and don't run atrociously bad, I'll get the elusive 10 evbb/100 winrate at 10nl. Suffered from the mental block of not believing I'm good enough to be among the best for too long, but now I´m rid of this, saw the light in the end of the tunnel and just learned how important confidence is and we must aim bigger to get bigger.

I'd like to get 50k hands until April, 30. With this volume, the chests, leaderboards and challenges, I'll probably end up well rolled for shot taking 25nl (by my nitty standards, btw I´m also the biggest BR nit alive as well). I´ll do my best effort to not look at results til my "deadline", but will still try to post here as much as possible to keep my motivation high.

If any of you fellow runitoncers are still here after the wall of text above, thank you very much for reading this, hopefully this blog will deliver.


March 16, 2022 | 11:08 p.m.

I have recently fallen in love with mixed games and I love your videos they are great and very exciting to learn from! My only critique would be to use names or positions or the players hand instead of saying "he" when explaining the action. A lot of the time I have to rewind the video multiple times to figure out which player you were talking about. Despite this you have become my favorite videos to watch. Thank you for your service!

Nov. 19, 2021 | 4:53 p.m.

Hey Max, great video, thank you very much! But yeah, while I do enjoy live play videos and think we can learn from them when paying full attention, they don´t seem to me like the most optimal way of learning. IMHO HH review using hands that illustrate the concept/leak and explaining what we should be doing differently and the reasoning behind it, using a solver and your oen word,s seem the most effective to me.
Nice to have you here as a coach btw :)

Oct. 17, 2021 | 8:09 p.m.

Fellow brazilian here :) First of all, good luck. Second, 75 buy-ins downswings are a lot and shouldn´t happen at the three stakes you mentioned unless you were on a huge life tilt period, so you should quickly realize before anything else that your game is pretty much nonexistant. I´d go with any resource that can both teach you a winning strategy for NL2 and is easy to understand. Back in the old days, what helped me was the blackrain book, but I don´t think it´s relevant anymore. Check youtube maybe?

Then, moving up to NL5 after crushing NL2 over a reasonable sample (100k hands+), I recommend Peter Clarke´s course FTGU (here on this site :) ). I can´t really say how much it helped me, and I´m sure it will help you also.

Post hands, post difficult spots, review your sessions daily, and try to have fun in the process as this game can be very frustrating and if you don´t enjoy it, you´ll give up eventually.


Aug. 7, 2020 | 4:15 p.m.

I like your line, it´s how I would play also. Don´t think 5nl regs are finding many bluffs here, or barreling a worse A (and they´re 3betting AK/AQ as you just stated, along with other lower AXs), so yeah, I´m folding river too.

July 27, 2020 | 10:41 p.m.

Snowie imho should eventually converge to GTO, and I guess it plays great on common spots. If I´m not mistaken, they developed the AI before the solver age. Maybe if they had a chance to build a blueprint strategy based on the tools we have now, and then, and only then, playing billions of hands against itself in order to refine it, the solution would be perfect?

July 24, 2020 | 8:37 p.m.

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