Cash Game guy moving over to MTT territory...
7 handed - 1k/2k w/ 1k BB ANTE
Hero has 155k (second biggest stack at table)
Fold. Hero in MP/LJ raises to 5k with 8c8d
2 callers behind. SB and BB both call (26k in pot)
SB checks. BB checks. I bet 13k.
HJ folds. CO calls (only person to have me covered, and barely at that - everyone else has less than 75k).
SB calls. BB goes all in for 30k total.
What's my play now and why?
Want to wait to give result until I hear more.
Nov. 26, 2019 | 3:46 p.m.
I have a lot of questions for you - mostly from wanting to learn though and not because I don't agree with your line of thought...
I don't think he 3-bets AT, even suited and even against that opponent. My range for him was fairly accurate that day.
1) Would you have cold 4-bet preflop or folded, then? And why? Seemed like a good hand to hit a lot of flops hard with in a 3-bet pot that will have some $$ in it... If V2 4 bets I can safely get out of harms way for only $35. 6BB smoked to win a lot more (implied odds) seems worth it, right?
2) Where'd you get eight outs from?
I counted 17 raw outs to make my hand a winner:
KKK - 999 - JJ - (didn't even include the 10's because of AK being likely here)
The following diamonds are left: 2,3,4,5,6,7,9,K,A
Should be 17, right? That's roughly 36% equity on the flop, right?
3) Check shoving the flop seemed like a strong move - it would put his stack at risk (Would've been $305 bet into $195 pot, essentially), and unless he had flopped a set of QQ's, he's probably drawing almost dead to a lot of hands that are out there (Only one combo of JJ left). So 2 combos of QQ, and one combo of AK (diamonds) are going to be able to continue after a check raise, and that's about it. Most of the rest of his range would have to fold to that, right? And if he continues with something less than that (AKo, AQo, AJo, even AA or KK), then I'm in really good shape moving forward (better than a coin flip against most).
4) Calling $305 into $670 is roughly a little better than 2:1, so folding the turn made sense as with one card left, I'm not generally in the business of calling from behind a whole lot there. Especially as there's no money left to get paid from if I do hit my hand on the river... Do you agree here or not?
5) I really wasn't worried about V2 for reasons I mentioned earlier.
Jan. 30, 2018 | 5:10 p.m.
Read on Villian:Solid TAG player. Was only 3-betting AQo+ and JJ+ at that point. When he hit his hand though he was willing to go with it.
UTG opens to $15. Villian in UTG+2 3-bets to $35. Hero in BB dealt Jd10d. I complete in the BB. UTG calls so three ways to a flop. (Pot ~$110)
Flop: 8d Qd Jc
I check. UTG checks. Villian c-bets $85. I call and UTG calls as well.(~$365 now in pot)
Turn: 8d Qd Jc Ah
I check. UTG checks. Villian shoves for the rest of his stack ($305). I go into the tank.
My thoughts at the time were as follows:
-He probably just spiked his ace, which means my jack is without a doubt not good anymore (it could've been good on the flop against AK)
-The ace does give me three more outs (any K now completes my straight)
-I was worried about what UTG was calling with preflop and now on the flop. If he had a pair less than QQ, it was without a doubt not good anymore unless he had a set, and I had blockers to JJ and 1010. So it didn't make sense for him to call the flop with a pair. This made me think he had some sort of suited connectors (definitely something he'd open with) that also had blockers to my flush draw. He also had donk bet flops several times with two-pair/top-pair type hands, so that made me think connected diamonds (maybe 67 with backdoor straights) made a lot of sense here.
-At this point, I regretted not check-raising the flop. I think if I had check/raised the flop to $250 or so and taken the lead in the hand, I maybe get him off of one pair hands and AK (unless their both diamonds) and almost definitely get UTG to fold. And if he calls my equity has to be decent.
I folded. UTG folded, and Villian collects. Not sure if fold was the right move or not but I did run his exact holding (he showed) through equilab, so I have the percentages. At the end of the day I only lost $110 on the hand, so I cannot be too upset. But I'm not sure I was getting the right odds on the turn bet. I'm going to wait to reveal his exact holding until I get some insight.
Jan. 16, 2018 | 5:25 p.m.
With the nuts or second nuts - where you're confident you're good... How do you change your bet sizing on the turn and river?
Hand last week where I flopped top set of J's, and I rivered the nut full house (J's full of 8's). Against the guy who's a very solid reg, since I'm first to act on the river, I tanked a bit and then bet roughly 2/3 of the bet (~$75). I was trying to look nitty and make it look like I was bluffing - and he smiled and folded and added: "Don't worry, your AK was good there." I laughed it off and acted surprised, so I think that's what he actually put me on (neither paired the board). So I did what I wanted, which was make myself look like I was buying the pot, and I'm guessing based on the action he had a combo draw that missed so he just couldn't call, but if I had priced him in a little better maybe he calls and I make more off of my full house.
Second scenario was two days ago - I had 10's full of J's on the turn for the second nut full house. After the second J hit the turn, he checked to me and there was an obvious flush and straight draw on the board, which it turns out he had. I tanked a bit and bet roughly half the pot, trying to look annoyed at the J. The heads up guy folded with KQs (open ender and flush draw) and I still took down a nice pot ($200 or so from preflop and flop action), so I wasn't too bummed. Then the guy at our table who's made some WSOP cashes and is basically a pro, came up to me later and asked if I had K's or Q's. When I told him I had 10's full, he looked genuinely surprised and said I did a good job of making it look like I was annoyed at the J and was trying to get someone off their draw with my bet size. We talked about how tough of a situation that is in a straight cash game when you want to price someone in, but disguise your hand at the same time. He said if I was playing against a better player they probably recognize that and call there because they think they still have a shot at the pot if either flush or straight hits. He said I just priced this guy out, even though he had a lot behind, so you gotta know your customer.
So my question is, in situations like this where you're 99% sure you're good, what factors affect your bet sizing? Are you more leaning toward looking like a bluff hand / I want you to fold hand (Preflop both times Ax, AK, KK, QQ etc. were definitely in my range as I opened and didn't get 3 bet - and they all would've probably missed), or value betting and trying to price them in? How do you vary those factors?
In both scenarios I did a good job of disguising it, but now looking back I wish I would've just priced them in a little more. I appreciate all feedback.
Nov. 20, 2017 | 5:04 a.m.
Thank you for the feedback - I wish I had taken Tyler's line of thought on the flop and just checked to see the turn.
I tanked - thought it over, and folded. Wasn't willing to lose most of my stack five hands in on a board that beats me. I knew it was close either way though.
After I threw it away he laughed and threw his 6/7 of spades in my direction.
Nov. 15, 2017 | 4:48 a.m.
Lot's of AK in my range there with a big 3 bet pre flop, but he's probably behind unless he flopped a set, or flatted AK or maybe KQ suited. So I'm probably ahead - but I can make money off of 88-JJ and he almost definitely values his hand to flat it OOP preflop. That's why I bet.
Critique it. Why was I wrong?
Don't want to give the result just yet.
Nov. 14, 2017 | 10:16 p.m.
Hero on BTN with ~$300 behind and QQ. Villian MP with ~$175 or so.
A couple limpers and folds to Villian who opens for $13. Two calls to me on BTN I 3-bet to $35 to isolate and maybe just collect on the callers.
Folds to Villian who tanks and the calls. Fold fold so we see the flop heads up.
Flop comes K64 rainbow. Villian checks, I definitely have a K in my range and I'm in position, so I bet $45. Villian shoves.
What you got for me?
Side note: this was maybe my fifth hand after sitting down, and so I didn't have a feel yet for players and tendencies etc.