packallama's avatar


16 points

Thanks for taking a look at the sims. I admit they're not perfect. I weighted hands to better model gameplay and unknown tendencies. You can and sometimes should take multiple actions with each hand on any given street. Nice catch; I intended for villain to raise some% of his nfd's OTF but they must have slipped though the cracks.

I took a look at your sim. In the actual hand we were 124bb deep instead of the std 100bb. Also, you analyzed with the Jc river which is clearly a check with AK. The 3d river makes a much more interesting decision of bet sizing especially with the deeper stacks.

I'll send you my updated sims. I changed the frequencies around a bit and had villain fold JJ no spade OTF. Let me know what you think. I don't think they're that different or harder to read than your own.

How villain should defend flop and turn are the crux of the hand because they determine his defending frequencies of < AK to river bets. Idk how to solve the frequency villain should defend his low equity bluff catchers (QQ, JJ) in order to make my worst bluffs close to breakeven OTF and OTT. It's complicated because it depends on equities and future streets play on multiple runouts. I would love suggestions for a method to get closer to the right answer.

March 5, 2015 | 7:26 a.m.

I understand if you don't want to open a link on a forum, but I'm not sure how else to post the text blocks. I only analyzed villain's range in CREV and used this range for calling the 3bet: QQ-55,AQs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,87s,76s,65s,[75]AKs,AKo[/75],[25]KK[/25]
I had villain calling all QQ and most JJ OTT. If not, I can make very profitable turn bluffs. I'd have to analyze the EV of checking with weaker bluffing hands to say for sure though.

I've adopted Sauce's preflop IP 3bet size strategy from his 2 Table $10_$20 6-Max Zoom NLHE Live Session series: 170 IP vs 60 and adding 1bb from the BTN. My understanding is to point is to buy position with a cheaper 3bet size when not on the BTN. I don't 3bet linear, but I definitely mix calling and 3betting many hands in my continuing range.

Feb. 18, 2015 | 9:33 a.m.

Here is a link to a Gdrive folder with the text blocks in individual google docs. I'm definitely open to criticism, advice and questions. I balanced villain's river defending ranges based on defending vs Ah4h and then used those ranges to evaluate the EV of AdKd OTR. I also learned that villain had to call down much more with pps than I originally thought.

Feb. 17, 2015 | 5:49 a.m.

Posting multiple 2-3 page long exported text blocks from CREV seems unreasonable. Is there a better way to do it? Perhaps link to another site hosting the text?

Feb. 17, 2015 | 5:31 a.m.

I think you need to work on the fundamentals of river bet sizing. You're working on the assumption that villain will defend a static range OTR (because big bets look more "bluffy") which isn't provided. Without reads, the idea is to maximize the EV of our bet with AK based on villain defending correctly vs our sizing and bluffing hands' blockers (Ax). This is a bit more complicated with the large number of chops in villain's range.

It's easy to ~solve the river, but constructing villain's flop and turn continuing ranges and therefore his river range is the crux of determining the best bet sizing OTR. I did a CREV of the both the Jc and 3d river with a slightly different range than I posted in the OP. Checking is better than betting by roughly 4.5-6bbs on the Jc river and betting ~2/3 PSB or $1,200 seems to maximize EV on the 3d river.

It seems I was wrong that we needed to value bet <= 1/2 PSB to maximize EV because villain is forced to defend some QQ in my simulation because his AK combos are reduced by our Ax bluffs. This could easily change though with villain defending less OTF and OTT and having a much stronger river range.

Does anyone know how to post CREV sims on the forum? I'd love some critiques because I don't have as much experience with the program as others. Feel free to PM me.

Feb. 15, 2015 | 3:04 a.m.

Note: I created a Topic post because the RIO HH converter wasn't able to convert this hand played on Bovada and converted by Bovada Hand Converter (any tips?) and because I want more general strategy discussion about bet sizing over multiple streets vs a chop heavy range.

I estimate villain's preflop calling range to be: QQ-66,AKo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s. Villain may call some AQo, 4bet some AK and not 4bet KK every time. How do we maximize value over three streets on king high flops with low side cards (don't connect with his suited connectors)? If we barrel too big, we get called almost exclusively by AK. If we bet too small, we lose value from weaker hands. I see two options to solve this problem: bet all three streets for a small sizing (1/2 PSB or under) or check one of three streets and use larger sizing. The latter option has the benefit of inducing bluffs or the negative of allowing villain to realize equity depending on which street we check.

What would your plan be on the Kc6s5s flop? As played, how would you size a bet on the 3c river?

Feb. 10, 2015 | 1:32 a.m.

In this hand JayP-AA back-raise click back 4bets AA and M.O.P chooses to call the 4bet rather than 5bet jam and allow JayP-AA to 6bet all-in if Oddsen were to call. One of the main benefits of shortstacking PLO is that you're deeper stacked opponents can force each other off their equity creating an overlay/dead money while you're already all-in. Why did M.O.P. choose not to use this concept in this hand? Is it possible that his particular hand benefits more from allowing Oddsen to see the flop rather than force him off his equity? M.O.P. could have a hand that severely dominates Oddsen's range or perhaps M.O.P.'s hand has similar equity vs AA and vs AA and another hand. What kinds of hands fall into those categories? I say all this with the assumption that M.O.P. is almost never folding a flop given the price his is laid with .16 SPR.

On a side note, what hands are good enough for Oddsen to call the 6bet and 328k 7bet from JayP-AA?

PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $100/$200 - 3 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Odd_Oddsen (BU): $36934.95 (185 bb)
JayP-AA (SB): $43672.74 (218 bb)
M.O.P. (BB): $8200 (41 bb)

Pre Flop: ($300)
OddOddsen (BU) raises to $700, JayP-AA (SB) calls $600, M.O.P. (BB) 3-bets to $2800, OddOddsen (BU) calls $2100, JayP-AA (SB) 4-bets to $5500, M.O.P. (BB) calls $2700, Odd_Oddsen (BU) calls $2700

Flop: ($16500) A A 2 (3 players)
JayP-AA (SB) bets $3200, M.O.P. (BB) calls $2700 (all-in), 1 fold

First Turn: ($21900) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

First River: ($21900) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Second Turn: ($21900) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Second River: ($21900) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $21900 (Rake: $5)

First Showdown: Board: A A 2 5 4

JayP-AA (SB) shows T Q A A (four of a kind, Aces)
M.O.P. (BB) mucks
JayP-AA (SB) wins $10947.50

Second Showdown: Board: A A 2 9 3

JayP-AA (SB) shows T Q A A (four of a kind, Aces)
M.O.P. (BB) mucks
JayP-AA (SB) wins $10947.50

Feb. 5, 2015 | 7:05 a.m.

Comment | packallama commented on Toy Gaming (part 4)

Just thought I'd share that I loved the video!

Sept. 5, 2014 | 3:36 a.m.

yes i was wondering this as well (@22:35), plus why did you feel the T on the river was the best card for you to bluff, doesn't this make it less likely to have a stronger hand in his eyes and make him want to look you up lighter?

April 5, 2014 | 10:59 a.m.

HH overview of triple barrels that went good/bad and why you made them I think we can all benefit from this HU, 6max, sng' tourney players etc. Thanks!

March 15, 2014 | 5:36 a.m.

Thanks appreciate it!

March 11, 2014 | 6:38 a.m.

Thanks, found them. 

Feb. 25, 2014 | 12:44 a.m.

I think I found everything except for XF flop, turn, and river as PFR. What are those called?

Feb. 24, 2014 | 4:50 a.m.

Loved the vid and followed along in my own HEM database. I have just recently bought HEM so it was very helpful for me. The only issue is that I was unable to find a number of the statistics used in the video. Many statistics have different names in PT4 and the HEM stat searching system is not great. 

You mainly covered preflop situations. What ways do you use HEM's filtering capabilities to analyze your post flop play?

Feb. 24, 2014 | 3:14 a.m.

Check.Villain should be leading a polarized range so betting QJ OTR accomplishes nothing (especially with your perception of villain). 

Feb. 18, 2014 | 4:45 a.m.

I'd love it if you'd check what your opponents had when a hand goes to showdown. There were several spots that the viewer was left in the dark. It's very helpful specifically for instructional videos for viewers to improve our hand ranging. 

Dec. 26, 2013 | 3:16 a.m.

Hi James, 
At 11:00 top right AKs hand:
What do you think are the merits of betting flop vs. checking back in this spot? 

Dec. 23, 2013 | 7:57 p.m.

I am mapping out defending ranges vs 3Bets in 6max cash. With help I have created rough estimates, but I'd like to get more precise. Does anyone have a a general idea of what % of your opening range you should defend IP and OOP vs a 3bet. Using standard sizings, the minimum defense frequency is 33%. We should probably shoot to defend higher than that % since the 3bettor will realize equity when called. It would also be a reasonable assumption that when OOP facing a 3bet, you should defend a higher % of your range as you move closer to the button because the 3bettor will have fewer players behind to help you defend. I know there are many factors to take into account and that the % will vary by situation, but any input would be helpful (particularly by someone with good understanding of game theory). 

I watched Sean Lefort's defending the blinds series and have extrapolated his R% to this situation. By estimated R% of various types of hands in the 3bettor's bluffing range, I can calculate what hands I should defend in order to make the 3bettor indifferent to 3betting the weakest hands in his bluffing range. Using an excel spreadsheet I can take 4betting, cold 4betting, and card removal into effect. The only piece of the puzzle left is the R% of the 3bettors bluffing hands. 

In an example of the 3bettor using a 5bet or fold strategy vs a 4bet: MP2 opens and the CO 3bets KK+, AKs, A9s-A8s(2), A5s-A2s. Around what R% would A3s have vs MP2's calling range of QQ-TT, AQo+, AJs+, KQs in a 3bet pot with the lead? So far I've calculated that using my current strategy, the CO profits if his 3bet bluffs realize >106% of their equity in a 3bet pot. This # seems a bit low to me considering CO has position and a polarized range. 

R% varies by hand type: K9s has a different R% than 65s, J8s, and A5s BTN vs CO in a 3bet pot. The R% of hands also changes as both player's ranges change. I know this is very rough, any guestimates would be appreciated. 

Dec. 20, 2013 | 3:29 p.m.

It certainly wasn't a misclick, denoking timed down all the way before calling. 

My guess is that bbvis was bluffing and denoking called down with 76s.

Nov. 21, 2013 | 3:29 p.m.

I noticed a few hands with where lucas overbet-shoves 1.5-2x PSBs OTF or Turn in 3bet pots. I currently don't use this strategy and I'm not sure if I want to. Do you think it's a necessary tool to have in your game? From what I have seen, it's mainly used on wet boards and bluffing candidates often have a lot of equity such as: flush-draws  w/ an over or gutter. What kind of made hands would you include in an overbet-shoving range? And why?

Oct. 18, 2013 | 5:28 a.m.

I also screamed at my computer during the AA hand on the river. Thankfully he called because your analysis was spot on and he showed up with an airball. 

@32:48 you misread the preflop action. We isolated the fish instead of calling his open. That changes the whole hand to the point where bluffing the A on the river becomes a decent play imo. 

Sept. 14, 2013 | 6:59 p.m.

Probably doesn't matter whether we use A9s or A9o since the SB will peel very infrequently. Only using suited aces in that spot can help you monitor your frequencies, but it's not a necessity whatsoever. Just pick and choose which spots to cold 4b w/ random Ax & Kx blockers based on the opponent's stats and frequencies. 

Sept. 14, 2013 | 6:56 p.m.

Comment | packallama commented on ICM mistake?
Totally Standard. Would never think twice about shoving 44 in that spot.

Dec. 20, 2012 | 12:34 a.m.

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