Puha Jekka

Hi PAPACHOSMAFIA,

Try JT:QQ, 98, 69, 68, KK ,A9

Actually we dont have needed equity to call preflop with this hand. Question was can we justify minus EV call with frequency of flops where we have at least 33% of equity. At least 33% happens 38% of time. 62% of time it doesn't.
If we shove always on flop we can calculate EV of our play by using our average equity on flop.
I found we can do this in Odds Oracle but I'm not now in home so I can't do it right away.

How tight you guys play from CO? This specific hand his top 23% and if you aren't opening this..what then?
God_of_War Did you mean your RFI from CO should be 25%? But still not opening Qd9s9h8h?

This is intresting because this seems clear open for me and I thought I play little bit nitty.

Like I say before you need average equity to manage calculations like these. I just watched a video from Leszek Badurowicz called "Playing Without Stats (part 2)" where he calculates EV of his action when calling 4-bet. The hand starts 24:08.
And in famous webseries "Plo from Scratch" the average equity and EV is explained very well.

This spot is same time interesting and weird. Only think what I can say for sure is that I would be folding this hand on flop. Is it right or wrong...I don't know. :)

What kind hands villain calls the turn and bluffs the river? If villain gets fd on turn to go with his two pairs/sets would he shove it on turn instead of calling?

I think you can not compare frequency of flops where you have 33% to your pot odds.

You don't always have to 3-bet your AAxx hands, specially when you are OOP. Cbetting from IP is so much easier like situation you described.
I don't know the stakes you're playing but with my experience from micros I can say there is not much folding against 3-bets, so villains can have literally anything.
In T23ss board you can try to figure out what is villains 3-bet calling range from CO. Would he open from CO with T2xx, T3xx or 32xx combos and call 3-bet? And what are your side cards, are they blocking anything?

Currect if I'm wrong but I think we have to know what is our average equity on those 38% of flops where you have the pot odds to call flop shove. Then you can calculate EV of your play.

Thanks for the answer! I really have to practice these ranges for different lines in different situations. If I had been playing that hand, I would just call.

In time about 49.20 on video you're thinking between raising or folding with Kc9c9s5s. You decided to fold and that made me wondering why calling wasn't an option?

Just checked your link and if we assume villain folds always when he don't have flush to our bluff bet, its +EV move to make. That means villain folds 64,5% of time and other times he calls or raises and we give up.

5,11/(5,11+5,11) = 52,2%
This means we have to have 52,2% fold equity to make bluff as break even. If you bluff like 2/3 pot sized bet its even more profitable.

Please correct me if my calculations or terms are wrong.

I think villains calling range otf is full of flush draw's so I wouldn't bet the turn.