Hey I've been running pretty bad on PP for the last 3 years. It is below EV each year and it doesn't even turn around anywhere. Its just slow widening of the graph overtime. The sample is about 1mio hands. On Prima poker it was the same. Overall I'm running 230BI below EV, 130 on PP alone. Thats just all-in EV. Same way the EV curve itself can be fucked with bad run outs. They suppose to smoothen out on long run. But All-in EV is just widening, and so can bad runouts. I'm a breakeven/slightly winning player according to EV line. Which again, can be fucked with opponents flopping sets in 4bet pots every other hand. Or oponents hitting draws with "1$" left on the river..
I'm just curious, are there regs that have winnings above EV line? Because from my perspective, its 98% that both sides are rigged.
Its just impossible to believe that after all this bad run, it still keeps happening over and over again . I can get 70 vs 30 allin, run twice and lose twice? And then again and then again, and then again and its happening for so long and its still happening. I thought after 1 year it will change. Then I thought after 2 year it will change. Or at least to run fair. It doesn't stop widening. Thats 140k€ below EV as I write, and its widening by the day...
Any others have same experience? If its just me than I guess I was born under wrong star. But if there are others, then its suspicious AF...
Oct. 29, 2020 | 9:48 a.m.
I'm still waiting to get an option in Vision,which is mono paired boards..
Sept. 2, 2020 | 5:47 p.m.
It would be interesting to search into IP PSB bet OTT. At the end you mentioned he leads cca21% in this spot for this sizing. Given his 45BB stack, he should be opening more high equity / high card hands. In RL , this sizing is super valueheavy and devoid of bet/folds. So it seems to me that IP range (in RL) is kind a strong made hands and combo draws. Monker does folds lot of sets here (We've seen half of 55). I guess players play this spot okey.
Ok back to Monkerland. It would be nice to see if IP has any bet/folds here at all OTT ? Given that the card is better for OOP.
Furthermore, what are his bluffs (weak draws that bet/fold)if there are any? Do they contain any kind of relevant blockers at all, given the BTN opening range with 45BB.
I speculate that Monker has bluffs (weak draws that bet/fold)here OTT. That hands become tripplebarrel blufs.
And lastly, results?:)
Nov. 22, 2019 | 6:52 p.m.
Okey I'm just glad that my intiutive gut tingling was correct here without actualy knowing it definetly.
Thallo, if everyone tighten up, then it makes sense to loosen up. And the position it makes most sense is the BTN. I mean playing KQ52ds is not even loosening up..
I would tigthen up in the blinds, which actually just feeds into the first point.
Nov. 3, 2019 | 4:06 p.m.
Mostly suprised by KQ52hds (high double suits) fold on BTN...I mean, so , feel free to correct me anywhere. I would say that KQ52hds is top50% range . And if we play 50% range on BTN, and not playing these hands, then we should be playing some of the bot50% hands..Which are? Unless we are suppose to play like less than 50% range on BTN .. Kind a confused there with a fold..
I know solver loves double suits.. And just to throw out, by my memory only cca 16% of the hands are double suited.. Add there 2 high suits and hands become kind a "rare". I would imagine solver would love them..
Oct. 30, 2019 | 10:56 p.m.
Hey, 18:50 3b pot, you decide to bet when checked to on the BTN with KT99 Thigh clubs on 246cc.
I presume you fold to check raise? What do we accomplish with this bet??
I guess betting small and checking turn gives us cheap way to reach the river and if opponent just check calls, that kind a defines more his range. Just we have to avoid the CR. It makes hand easier to play.
I kind a don't like betting here. Thing is he can CR with AA+nfd.. or 578A with 8high FD. I guess also 5678 wihtout FD. Our equity vs CR range is bad due to domination and the range being weighted towards AA+nfd. But on the other hand we still have good equity vs other parts of the range - what I mentioned + naked higher flush draws. We have 2 gin cards (9's).
We have a pair +fd which makes his non-pair overcard hands worse. So checking doesn't give up too much. We have advantage in nutiness but not sure what % of our range really hits this bord. We are not playing all 22 an 44 and even 66/35 combos.
To me its seems like that we should be betting similiar hands with no pair, which can be easily folded to a CR. But I'm not sure:)
Oct. 29, 2019 | 4 p.m.
Hey nice video.
Hand 3, villain had 17out wrap... Should he have a pair to go with it?
On the solver chart , there is no category for this hand class. I'm really curious if it's a "overbluff"(from solver perspective) or not.
I would imagine this hand would be in b/3b range OTF with BDFD ...
Sept. 13, 2019 | 12:54 a.m.
Hey Nick , great video:)
Nice spots , interesting thoughts on live play..
The only thing that I would not agree with is bluff with KK67 last hand.
Also the sizing on the flop could be less than pot. Reasons for that is that SPR's are already low and if you make it 3\4 PSB (or even 2\3) we achieve same results. Players are binded amongst themselves to make a call OTF, especialy player left of you. If somebody goes with the hand we save the bucks.
Secondly, river bluff with KK67 combo is kind a redundant. We have enough showdown value with KK and we beat his 789 type draws with pair. To bluff him only off an Ace is kind a not efficient. He had to call OTF with no pair and NFD, thats the only hand we bluff him off. And he can have lot of 2 pair that don't bet the river. Fearing you might have a straight or sometimes even lower set(ok thats really seldom I guess, but he doesn't know how you play).
Adding the fact that players in live game go to showdowns more often and like to make big calls (ok, its player dependant). But for you to be poting the river, you represent straight and not sure you represent anything else. If he has only an Ace with some straight blocker he might decide to calldown. And to mention again, we beat his 1 pair Qxxx hands, and also us having KK, we block him having KK(+ some additional equity), which would sometimes call OTF and is folding the river.
July 25, 2019 | 5:13 p.m.
Just minor note or inaccuracy.At around 29:26 you were checking in Monker what should you do with AK87 hand. But in hand you have trips, and in Monker sim you only have top pair with same hand. Or maybe Im missing something.
June 3, 2019 | 10:57 p.m.
I was running 240BI below EV. About 123k€ in cash terms.. Im still about 230BIs below:) That is sick.. Like 2 years and 2 months, thats 26 months of running bad day after day week after week:)
More than 1mio hands
May 13, 2019 | 9:41 p.m.
" If I bet the turn and can have a 0EV fold with one hand and a barely +EV call with a draw, the outcome is nearly the same. "
Its the difference between breakeven player and winning player ? :)
Half joke aside, I get your point. I guess this is spot for solver since its kind a better in theory if we barrel off lower equity hands. Being lower equity also means they unblock draws that oponent can have, making river bluff more succesfull.
May 12, 2019 | 6:43 p.m.
Leading OTT kind a implies to me that we check-called the flop and then bet the turn. So that is the information that is additionaly provided with the phrase..
Although if the flop gets checked through do we say lead?
Watching all the stuff here, by memory I would say that mostly it is said bet then... Not sure..
May 8, 2019 | 7:29 p.m.
You raised a good point here. Maybe we need excatly AKQ9 no spade in order to barrel off, just in case we get shoved on OTT we can call, but this hand probably should be folded and we lose a lot of equity.
On the other hand, what if we have same hand with spades.. And we pot the turn and river is blank. We probably give up with those hands.
Or do we try to check-shove the turn ?
May 7, 2019 | 6:37 p.m.
Lol ye ok, it was suspicious though from the pronounciation. If you havn't heard it , you wouldn't pronounce it like that ever..:) But I didn't deduce from it that you were trolling:)
April 30, 2019 | 2:45 p.m.
I've been inteding to mention this couple of vids ago ..
psjebemvas is probably serbian and jebem vas means "i f* you" kind a:)
April 29, 2019 | 6:42 p.m.
Hey, liked the video overall . Just I'd like to know what are the UTG and CO opening range in % points versus which you then constructed all these 3bet/call on BTN?
Also KT98ss (Khigh suit) call vs UTG seems suspect to me considering all the domination scenarios that can happen while we are dominating very rarely vs his range.
April 21, 2019 | 6:15 p.m.
Hey, about the JT97ds at 30:50.
We probably do want to have small leading range on this board, lets say with occasional sets (99 66) and dominating wraps. If we did had a leading range on this board, this hand would fit in nicely. For example, we unblock high cards so oponent can fold them and have decent equity vs our hand.
We can still be tricky OTT on some cards. Having a 9 in our hand reduces his raising frequency substaintialy, so does T and 7. Sizing would be 55%/60%.
On the other hand, he can raise some wraps or 66 and we have to fold lot of equity.
April 3, 2019 | 8:03 p.m.
Hey, how would you comment villain bluff with QT99 last hand.
To me it seems not so good. 99 does not block your value range since you check backed turn (or block very little of you value range due to occasional slowplay). It only blocks you from having blockers, which is something.
Having T is like blocks you from value betting 2 pair, and increases the chances you have 58.
Not sure how thin would you go river... On the other hand, having 88 would be excellent blockers for him. Thoughts?
April 2, 2019 | 7:21 p.m.
Honestly, for last hand, you should just say that we play vs solver.
Vs good player its an easy fold and IMO not close.
Current state of the game is that people dont triple barrel bluff so much. I see all videos here - players are reluctant to bet/fold turn much and rather check and realize equity. Happens to be that turn bet/fold hands are best tripple barrel bluffs.
And I may also add that a "good player" will try to play exploititive. Seeing double flush draw brick, will be less inclined to bluff.
Argument that IPP player will be checking 56 behind OTT, could be same made for the weak flush draws that must bet/fold and hence they check.
So in real life situation, I'd fold unless I'm against maniac.
March 2, 2019 | 1:11 a.m.
He only raised...
Jan. 31, 2019 | 4:43 p.m.
Some usefull stuff.
Hand QQ54ds 33:48 in the game where you decide to 4bet vs BTN 3bet vs maniac raise.
Isn't here better to cold call?
If we 4bet we might lose the maniac. Probability is low, but when it happens it hurt us a lot.
If BTN has KK or AA , we have cca same equity 2 way vs HIM or 3way with maniac. But of course with maniac there is more money in. Maniac takes most of the equity from BTN (if he is ahead of us). When we beat BTN's KK or AA, we also beat maniac hand most of the time...
And with low SPR it will be kind a "easy" to play this hand on the flop even OOP.
Jan. 30, 2019 | 9:53 p.m.
Hey thanks for answering.
That is interesting to me that there are "no range casaulties".. Its funny same thing Phil said in diferent words recently.
It makes sense.. Its just, what about bet sizings.. We throw ranges into single(or more) bet sizes.. So with nuts we would like to bet full pot, but range considerations, we bet smaller (depends on our value range). So I can see here that when deciding bet sizes, there are some "casaulties" which balances out with "benefits" of other hands and all is intertwined for the sake of balance. We are maximizing the value of the range, not particular hand per se. This thinking might be wrong, depends on the perspective. But if we compromise at bet sizes, aren't we doing the same when selecting actions with our range?
Im just thinking out loud, I'm not trying to force or prove something to be true...
Well after some thinking I can party answer myself :D Not sure the answer is sufficient. We compromise at bet sizings because its hard to be balanced having 3/4/5 different bet sizings (and we might lose more failing at execution). But is this answer sufficient to te original question?
Jan. 26, 2019 | 5:22 p.m.
Nailed the distributions..
Somehow I thought SPR is 1.08 /1.1 decided to always shove AA33..And always shove AQJ8... At 1.8SPR I would check AA33 and probably shove AQJ8:)
AQJ8s hand is interesting to me. Is this just "range casaulty" for this hand to must always check? Since checking this hand like, we have to fold on turn PSB bets. And we can rarely bet it, being afraid of CR, which then we have to fold? So only "good" turns are when we hit or maybe, maybe bord pairs (maybe). Otherwise we are just checking it down with low SD and pretty strong draw for a low SPR situation.
And also there are a lot of high diamonds seen , blocking some NFD's.. And there are tons pair+GS or pair + OESD which are put in a tough spot.. I guess all this is flawed logic, since the solver said otherwise:D
Not 40bb expert...Totaly failed the AJ42s /T986s/QQ58r .. Somehow I thought that AJ42 is mix, T986s is always raise and QQ58 is a fold:D I guess value of suited aces goes down dramaticly when stacks get shallower...
Jan. 25, 2019 | 11:14 p.m.
Hey,36:34 top left where you have trips OTT and Khigh NFD blocker.
Do you ever barrel off with trips repping boats to fold out flushes? In this case we also have NF blocker so... Or is barreling off with trips ill advised?