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Nov. 2, 2023 | 4:24 p.m.
Villain is reg, hero caller. Cant say much more, he is probably lurking here around. Its 10/20$ on GG Poker.
We both have 250BB. I open BTN with Ac Jh 9c 3s, he 3bets from BB.
3h 7c Ts
Hero: Pot 390$
3h 7c Ts 8s
Hero: Pot 1170$
RIVER 3510$ - We have 3400$ behind.
3h 7c Ts 8s 3c
Hero: AI 3400$.
Villain : Calls with Kd Jc 8d 8c
It seems to me like GTO I have close shove on the river and villain is a hero caller in big spots.
I have some doubts now :) My hand is definetly bet on the river. Maybe I was thinking 1/3 PSB and then fold to a CRAI.
I would not have pot if I did not have 3s. I would have not pot river, if turn brought no flush draw.
I was pretty sure 77 and TT is out of VIllain range 99% of the time. I was playing my hand but if I start asking myself what is Villain calling with here, it gets dicey. I have seen some big pots where overpair here with some blockers calls or something beside 69+blockers...
Jan. 7, 2023 | 1:20 p.m.
Great content, though video is a bit blurry on some areas.Luckily I have 2 screens, and its blurry on both displays. Also when I move the window around the screen, blurry area followed. So it must be bug with a video.
Dec. 30, 2020 | 10:45 a.m.
Aren't you leaving out one important thingy..
Applying MDF before river streets has problem, because you have to account for future bets and that kills the calc.
I'm aware now, thanks to the video, that ranges also play a role.
Lets say on the river where MDF applies the most, our range does not support/does not have enough bluffcatchers to meet 1-alpha. Doesn't that mean that our range is structured wrongly?
Thinking now ahead, that would mean that GTO strategy would always have enough bluffcatchers to meet potsize bet requirements to defend?
Dec. 24, 2020 | 10:46 a.m.
For some reason I see blurry at screen names. Anyone else having this bug?
There were couple of preflop spots.
AQ86r on BTN and KQ96 on CO with Khigh suit. Both were folded. I don't have software active atm so I can't check. I'm suprised how quickly you folded.
I'm not even 100% sure that they are folds. I think they are worth at least considering for a sec and then folding:)
Dec. 23, 2020 | 9:13 a.m.
Hey I've been running pretty bad on PP for the last 3 years. It is below EV each year and it doesn't even turn around anywhere. Its just slow widening of the graph overtime. The sample is about 1mio hands. On Prima poker it was the same. Overall I'm running 230BI below EV, 130 on PP alone. Thats just all-in EV. Same way the EV curve itself can be fucked with bad run outs. They suppose to smoothen out on long run. But All-in EV is just widening, and so can bad runouts. I'm a breakeven/slightly winning player according to EV line. Which again, can be fucked with opponents flopping sets in 4bet pots every other hand. Or oponents hitting draws with "1$" left on the river..
I'm just curious, are there regs that have winnings above EV line? Because from my perspective, its 98% that both sides are rigged.
Its just impossible to believe that after all this bad run, it still keeps happening over and over again . I can get 70 vs 30 allin, run twice and lose twice? And then again and then again, and then again and its happening for so long and its still happening. I thought after 1 year it will change. Then I thought after 2 year it will change. Or at least to run fair. It doesn't stop widening. Thats 140k€ below EV as I write, and its widening by the day...
Any others have same experience? If its just me than I guess I was born under wrong star. But if there are others, then its suspicious AF...
Oct. 29, 2020 | 9:48 a.m.
I'm still waiting to get an option in Vision,which is mono paired boards..
Sept. 2, 2020 | 5:47 p.m.
It would be interesting to search into IP PSB bet OTT. At the end you mentioned he leads cca21% in this spot for this sizing. Given his 45BB stack, he should be opening more high equity / high card hands. In RL , this sizing is super valueheavy and devoid of bet/folds. So it seems to me that IP range (in RL) is kind a strong made hands and combo draws. Monker does folds lot of sets here (We've seen half of 55). I guess players play this spot okey.
Ok back to Monkerland. It would be nice to see if IP has any bet/folds here at all OTT ? Given that the card is better for OOP.
Furthermore, what are his bluffs (weak draws that bet/fold)if there are any? Do they contain any kind of relevant blockers at all, given the BTN opening range with 45BB.
I speculate that Monker has bluffs (weak draws that bet/fold)here OTT. That hands become tripplebarrel blufs.
And lastly, results?:)
Nov. 22, 2019 | 6:52 p.m.
Okey I'm just glad that my intiutive gut tingling was correct here without actualy knowing it definetly.
Thallo, if everyone tighten up, then it makes sense to loosen up. And the position it makes most sense is the BTN. I mean playing KQ52ds is not even loosening up..
I would tigthen up in the blinds, which actually just feeds into the first point.
Nov. 3, 2019 | 4:06 p.m.
Mostly suprised by KQ52hds (high double suits) fold on BTN...I mean, so , feel free to correct me anywhere. I would say that KQ52hds is top50% range . And if we play 50% range on BTN, and not playing these hands, then we should be playing some of the bot50% hands..Which are? Unless we are suppose to play like less than 50% range on BTN .. Kind a confused there with a fold..
I know solver loves double suits.. And just to throw out, by my memory only cca 16% of the hands are double suited.. Add there 2 high suits and hands become kind a "rare". I would imagine solver would love them..
Oct. 30, 2019 | 10:56 p.m.
Hey, 18:50 3b pot, you decide to bet when checked to on the BTN with KT99 Thigh clubs on 246cc.
I presume you fold to check raise? What do we accomplish with this bet??
I guess betting small and checking turn gives us cheap way to reach the river and if opponent just check calls, that kind a defines more his range. Just we have to avoid the CR. It makes hand easier to play.
I kind a don't like betting here. Thing is he can CR with AA+nfd.. or 578A with 8high FD. I guess also 5678 wihtout FD. Our equity vs CR range is bad due to domination and the range being weighted towards AA+nfd. But on the other hand we still have good equity vs other parts of the range - what I mentioned + naked higher flush draws. We have 2 gin cards (9's).
We have a pair +fd which makes his non-pair overcard hands worse. So checking doesn't give up too much. We have advantage in nutiness but not sure what % of our range really hits this bord. We are not playing all 22 an 44 and even 66/35 combos.
To me its seems like that we should be betting similiar hands with no pair, which can be easily folded to a CR. But I'm not sure:)
Oct. 29, 2019 | 4 p.m.
Hey nice video.
Hand 3, villain had 17out wrap... Should he have a pair to go with it?
On the solver chart , there is no category for this hand class. I'm really curious if it's a "overbluff"(from solver perspective) or not.
I would imagine this hand would be in b/3b range OTF with BDFD ...
Sept. 13, 2019 | 12:54 a.m.
Hey Nick , great video:)
Nice spots , interesting thoughts on live play..
The only thing that I would not agree with is bluff with KK67 last hand.
Also the sizing on the flop could be less than pot. Reasons for that is that SPR's are already low and if you make it 3\4 PSB (or even 2\3) we achieve same results. Players are binded amongst themselves to make a call OTF, especialy player left of you. If somebody goes with the hand we save the bucks.
Secondly, river bluff with KK67 combo is kind a redundant. We have enough showdown value with KK and we beat his 789 type draws with pair. To bluff him only off an Ace is kind a not efficient. He had to call OTF with no pair and NFD, thats the only hand we bluff him off. And he can have lot of 2 pair that don't bet the river. Fearing you might have a straight or sometimes even lower set(ok thats really seldom I guess, but he doesn't know how you play).
Adding the fact that players in live game go to showdowns more often and like to make big calls (ok, its player dependant). But for you to be poting the river, you represent straight and not sure you represent anything else. If he has only an Ace with some straight blocker he might decide to calldown. And to mention again, we beat his 1 pair Qxxx hands, and also us having KK, we block him having KK(+ some additional equity), which would sometimes call OTF and is folding the river.
July 25, 2019 | 5:13 p.m.
Just minor note or inaccuracy.At around 29:26 you were checking in Monker what should you do with AK87 hand. But in hand you have trips, and in Monker sim you only have top pair with same hand. Or maybe Im missing something.