As played, I don't see a fold here. As Jeff_ said the c-bet then check back could induce a bluff from air, a missed 87s, or possibly someone who doesn't know enough about the game to understand why leading the river w/ A8s isn't likely to get called by many worse hands.
One thing I will say about these situations is that I am more inclined to call if this is vs. a player who I don't have a note telling me what hand(s) I have seen them take this line with. Calling a bet here and making a note of what he had can help make future rivers a lot more profitable vs. them.
May 22, 2020 | 10:19 p.m.
I admit I miscounted the outs but I don't know if 12% equity against any made hand aside from 2x helps us much.
"What would be a scare card for you on this board ?"
Truthfully, not much. If this was a 953 flop and I didn't have a pair that fact would possibly be enough for me to not even c-bet since I would have so few options on the turn. Here you are least have SDV and the bet makes since to fold some of Villain's combos that have two overs to your 4s but have completely missed the flop so a bet makes sense. Now let's say the flop had two clubs and the turn was jack of clubs. That would be a scare card to bet. A flop where there are few ways for the turn to help us and few ways for it to look bad for top pair are reasons to consider not c-betting.
"I have AA,AK and more JJ than Vilain OTR so i have to find some bluff to équlibrate my betting range, what hand do you recommande ?"
Once again, with this kind of flop it's rough since there aren't a lot of turns that would make Ax think they are worse vs. the range I raise UTG. If I had to pick it would be when hands like KhQh, QhTh, KhTh pick up the FD (especially with Kh since I now have the NFD) and gutshot, plus some outs to pull ahead of hands like 65, 54 that called with a weak pair+draw. I don't know off the top of my head how much we need to bluff here to be optimal.
May 20, 2020 | 9:57 p.m.
I don't think this is good at all.
1) We raise suited aces semi-bluff like this because of the chance to hit NFDs and that they reduce the likelihood that our opponent has AA, AK by 25% increasing our preflop fold equity. They don't eliminate the possibility of having a hand like AA, AK here. All of the things we hoped for here (either a preflop fold or hitting the rare flop with a lot of equity) have failed.
2) If you make a Venn diagram of players that are willing to call a 4-bet with a medium PP and the players that are willing to flat big aces and kings, especially if they are suited, you will have a circle.
3) We don't block a king here at all. We have no reason to suddenly start playing like Villain can't have one.
Your preflop semi-bluff failed, there was no reason to bet the flop hoping that a) we are up against the bottom of Villain's range and b) he is the kind of player who will give up his nice PP once an overcard hits. Which brings us to...
4) If Villain's call leaves him with less than a PSB behind, considering your fold equity shot without a read isn't the worst idea.
May 20, 2020 | 9:03 p.m.
If you are going to 2nd barrel you want to either a) have a decent number of outs to beat the hands Villain is likely to call with so the fold equity to be profitable is reduced or b) a turn card that will make a Villain that called with a decent hand like top pair start thinking that you have likely pulled ahead of them. Your hand has only two outs to pull ahead of anything that beats it on this turn and that jack on the turn doesn't really give someone with an ace a reason to start worrying here.
May 20, 2020 | 8:07 p.m.
Why do you feel it makes sense to be checking the flop as PFR here? As you said, they are anonymous tables so I don't see how you can have enough time spent with this particular player to be confident that they will bet-call with almost anything when you have a hand that wants value, and it is less expensive to range bet the flop and either 2nd barrel or x-r the turn depending on how likely we have seen Villain be to float the turn.
On the turn, his flop call caps his range and there is no reason to believe that he won't check back the turn on a card that does nothing for most of the range that would call a flop x-r.
On the river, this line looks very much like something that queen helped as opposed to a slowplayed set/overpair or turned straight. The river shove could be a straight but it could also be two pair or something like AQ, KQ that decided to say fuck it since there is only $3.41 left behind if he flats. With those possiblities in mind you have to call getting 2.5:1
May 20, 2020 | 7:32 p.m.
What sample size are we working with here? 5-bet pots can't be super common so unless you have played a ridiculously large number of hands it is a very real possibility that the results haven't approached close enough to the mean. I would be much more inclined to believe that your sample size doesn't include your fair share of suckouts, and the times you are running into a better hand that doesn't fold vs. the times you run into a hand that does is more than the actual probabilities would indicate.
May 20, 2020 | 6:48 p.m.
Hand #364025141 - Holdem(No Limit) - $0.01/$0.02 - 2020/05/20 06:59:54 UTC
Rigby 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Icedlemonader ($2.12)
Seat 2: oldphonewhodis ($0.62)
Seat 3: LimpSin ($2.84)
Seat 4: 626playa ($5.05)
Seat 5: OhNoAces ($2.11)
Seat 6: xxxxxxx ($4.38)
oldphonewhodis posts the small blind $0.01
LimpSin posts the big blind $0.02
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to xxx [Ks Th]
626playa raises $0.07 to $0.07
LimpSin calls $0.05
FLOP [9d Qc 9s]
Main pot $0.15 | Rake $0.00
TURN [9d Qc 9s] [Kh]
Main pot $0.15 | Rake $0.00
LimpSin bets $0.08
626playa raises $0.23 to $0.23
Uncalled bet ($0.15) returned to 626playa
626playa does not show
Total pot $0.30 | Rake $0.01
Board [9d Qc 9s Kh]
Seat 1: Icedlemonader (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
Seat 2: oldphonewhodis (small blind) folded on the Pre-Flop
Seat 3: LimpSin (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: 626playa did not show and won $0.30
Seat 5: OhNoAces folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 6: xxx folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
I replaced my name with x's.
May 20, 2020 | 7:03 a.m.
I have tried the RAW hand histories from the PT4 hand history viewer and they just don't work. I've tried it with multiple hands and always get the same invalid hand error message. I play on ACR. Are there any known remedies for this?
May 20, 2020 | 4:49 a.m.
The turn is a blank for both or our ranges here, why are we continuing here? I admit that I am coming back from since Black Friday, but is calling with middle pair or TPWK after your c-bet is check-raised and then giving up on blanks really a thing that the population does often enough now to make this profitable? Assuming it is, why are we continuing on a blank river? Villain showed on the turn that he is willing to keep hold on to whatever he has once he sees that we aren't one and done with the check-raise so I don't see how that river gives us reason to believe he will be laying it down here as I don't see reason to believe the bulk of his range is diamond draws.
May 18, 2020 | 10:30 p.m.
I'm pretty much following the preflop charts from "The Grinder's Manual" and adjusting based on who I have left to act. They are pretty close to what I used back in the day so I don't really have to refer to them that much.
May 14, 2020 | 6:05 p.m.
Thank you all for the input, I appreciate it. I was playing 50NL and 100NL back before Black Friday with a good winrate over 300k+ hands for 50NL and almost 200k for 100NL and am just coming back to the game now. The ass-kicking I am getting at the lowest stakes is something I was not quite emotionally prepared for and has me questioning everything I thought I knew about how to play. I really do appreciate your being willing to provide some input while tearing down and rebuilding my skillset.
May 14, 2020 | 8:39 a.m.
That is a link to the report you requested. Thank you.
May 14, 2020 | 4:28 a.m.
I realize that the number of hands is small, but the difference is so huge that I think it may be more than just sample size. Over 14,082 hands my positional bb/100 outside of the blinds is as follows:
Am I just really bad at defending my steals and raises? The big difference has me kind of shocked.