sjfraley1975's avatar

sjfraley1975

102 points

Am I the only one who thinks that with our hand and the board blocking a lot of the Queens V would 3B and our holding blocking KK, OESDs, and some spade draws that a raise IP on the flop seems like a good move here? If not with this kind of hand what part of your range are you raising here?

Aug. 15, 2021 | 1:06 a.m.

LOL, I just cashed out down to $30 to make rent this month. Hopefully after finances stabilize I can inject some into my bankroll to jump to $25NL without grinding.

Aug. 12, 2021 | 6:05 a.m.

Post | sjfraley1975 posted in NLHE: 100k Hand checkup.

In April after life needs required me to cashout all but $40 of my bankroll. Since I had been putting in some effort into improving for about a year since that point it seemed a good time to start a new database and track my progress from 2NL up without my previous BS cluttering it up. Now I am 100k hands into that database and it seems a good time to post results and stats for so I can get some feedback from you guys for a checkup.

Graph
Results By Stake
Stats Pt 1
Stats Pt 2

Note: When playing normal speed tables I tend to start new tables and wait for someone to sit. This may skew some of the PF stats due to SB being your BTN when HU.

Aug. 12, 2021 | 2:53 a.m.

See Bytien? Playing for the joy of it is what makes (wet) dreams come true.

Aug. 11, 2021 | 3:49 a.m.

Comment | sjfraley1975 commented on 50z JJ squeezing

I'm not betting that small on the flop multiway since we unblock diamonds and 87s may be in some of the Villains' calling ranges depending on how they put together their PF strategy. Even a bet as small as 1/2 pot leaves us with so little behind that we can't will have a hard time really making them pay to realize their equity with a turn bet. With two people to call and the texture of the flop I think a PSB is absolutely reasonable here and hope that ATs or a 30%+ equity draw decides to give us some value.

As for bet/folding the flop: Don't even consider folding to a raise on this flop. As mentioned before, their are enough draws in even a reasonable player's range here that the only real option on this flop is getting it in if raised. This is another reason for a big bet on the flop. We can't really be folding here if one of them raises a hand that beats us so there is no incentive to give them better implied odds for their draw.

Aug. 11, 2021 | 3:46 a.m.

Viewing the possibility of poker being a primary income while working through uNL and SSNL is not the way to look at this. If you have a positive winrate, then you are making some money at this. It is an amazing thing to have a hobby that can possibly provide some actual money in your pocket on a regular basis. It is also great to have a hobby that allows you to challenge yourself as an act of self improvement, especially one that allows you to track it somehow so you can see how you are steadily improving over time. Poker is best viewed as an awesome combination of these two things. Take pride when the last 100k hands has a higher average winrate than the previous 100k. Feel the sense of accomplishment when you manage to win enough to move up, because that means you improved enough to be a positive winner at a stake that you most likely used to be a loser at. Let these things be your motivation to learn and play. Approaching it this way will let your passion for the game grow and fuel the path upward.

As for the money, don't pick some pre-determined amount as the point you want to be satisfied at. Back pre Black Friday I started grinding the .02/.04 limit HE games on Party Poker just because a website transferred me $50 if I filled out a huge marketing questionnaire. I remember when I finally had enough that half my winnings since the start was enough to meet the minimum cashout requirements. I got to brag at the bar that as I bought some friends some beers that it was paid for with online poker winnings. That was satisfying as hell. Who cares if you can't win enough to pay your bills right now? Cash out 50% of your winnings at the end of every month you finish in the black. Do something nice for yourself. Use it for a date. Buy yourself that new game you want, or that cool pair of shoes, whatever. Just take some of that money and use if for something that you can say to yourself "I have this now because I am a winner at 10NL." It motivates you, it feels good. Then maybe, over time, as you slowly get better at the game because now you are doing it for how good it feels to slowly master a difficult skill, you may look up and see that for the past year your monthly cashouts are not so small any more. Maybe the nice things you are buying is a new TV, or paying for a weekend to Vegas. Even if it isn't enough to make a living, an extra few hundred a month is nice. 18 months after I started grinding micro limit games, I was regularly 4-tabling 100NL. I never made near enough to make a living off it, but it was really nice to save two months of cashouts and buy a decent laptop. It was nice to know my day job paid all the bills and the poker meant I could spend some money on nice things.

I don't know how hard it is right now to become a poker pro grinding out a modest income. I do absolutely believe that anyone who puts at one hour of study and hand review for every two or three playing can get themselves to a point where the extra money makes a noticeable difference in quality of life, even if it is just having some extra money for something nice once in a while.

Aug. 11, 2021 | 2:29 a.m.

Preflop loose players reduce the chance of cleanly stealing the blinds with just your opening raise. Some preflop hands are only profitable if they successfully steal the blinds a certain percentage of the time.

Next is the increased possibility of multi-way pots. Weaker pairs and non-nut draws, and lower equity draws do worse in multi-way pots so hands that tend to flop these more than anything else lose value preflop.

If the loose player(s) is also pretty loose post flop then these two factors also are in play. Loose callers get to realize more of their equity (though they often pay more than they should to do so). One or more loose players in multi-way pots calling your bets results in situations where they are getting correct odds to chase draws and make it worse because you are playing against four or more cards instead of just two. The end result of this is that a number of hands that would love from break even or worse post flop but get nudged into profitability from our opponents overfolding equity to our CBs and 2nd barrels now become losers either due to their equity dropping when multi-way or opponents not making those overfolds.

Tightening our range so that at showdown we either have top pair of are drawing to it and that our draws on the flop are more often either to the nuts or giving us closer to breakeven equity helps combat these factors.

July 22, 2021 | 10:47 a.m.

You unblock aces, hearts, and any other wonky draws on that flop. I would x-r and consider getting called by a straight or better set a cooler.

July 4, 2021 | 9:54 a.m.

At these stakes you should worry less about being unexploitable and worry more about exploiting the other players better than they exploit you.

July 4, 2021 | 9:48 a.m.

Opponent looks normal over 17 hands.

Unless opponent has been far from normal (very loose or very nitty) 17 hands isn't enough to know much of anything.

On the flop you benefit far more from taking a free card hoping to turn a 6 or Ace than you do by c-betting this very wet flop.

Let's look at Villain's range compared to ours. Depending on how Villain plays the SB, medium PPs may well be in their 3B range so sets are a possibility looking to x-r, especially since the Ace of Spades would likely call that x-r. Speaking of the Ace of Spades, this is a 3B pot so there are a lot more Ax hands in Villain's range that their would be in a single raised pot and I don't see the Ace of Spades either on the board or in my hand, it isn't folding to my CB, and will make it's flush 1/3 of the time. That means it has to be included in Villain's range. Now how do we fair against Aces in general? If we hit an ace there are more aces that outkick us than ones that we outkick. This is not good news if we hit an ace. What if we hit a Six? Well, there aren't a lot of Fives in Villain's range for us to split with so that is good, but AT, KT, QTs, JTs, TT are all in V's SB 3B range to leave us the possibility of facing a better straight if we try to get value from ours. To make matters worse, with all the combos that may call with a single spade we have effectively only two outs to top pair instead of three. No, this flop absolutely hit Villain's range better than ours.

Now, since it is a 3B pot, we are in a bind as far a CB sizing. We can make a smaller CB but since we have no spades in our hand that means that if Villain has literally any spade they would be correct to call since with a board this wet, that hit our opponent's range so hard, we have basically no option to 2nd barrel unimproved if we get called. What if we do improve? We still can't 2nd barrel since even if we hit an ace or straight we risk being dominated but still have to call a big bet on the river. Checking to hope for pot control is our only option. What about a bigger CB? Well, you just need to look at the hand you posted to see why that causes a problem by bloating the pot early in the hand when the board is this wet and it is all but impossible for us to even draw to the nuts.

July 4, 2021 | 9:46 a.m.

Everything GTO Warrior said plus this: this spot is the time to pull up your HUD popups and any notes you have and start figuring out what the best exploitative action is. Does the Villain defend to wide OTB and then fold to CBs a lot? Bet. Is their call Fold to Flop CB low and their Fold to Turn CB high in general? 2 barrels are starting to look good. Do you have a lot of hands so you can see how those stats relate in 3B pots in particular? Look and see and start working from there. No info for this spot? Bet if you have the BDNFD so you have 10-16 outs to a NFD or TPTK on the turn and don't fail to take a note if the hand gets to showdown. You may lose a pot now but a note like "3BP: flats CB IP w/ weak pair, will x-back T&R to SD" or "3BP: flatted CB IP w/ GS+BDFD, 1/2 pot float on blank turn" may make future hands against them far more profitable. There is nothing wrong with paying some money now for info that will win it back with interest later.

July 4, 2021 | 9 a.m.

If your opponent is not playing GTO but the solver assumes they are then yes, you would fail to maximize your EV vs. their mistakes because the solver is designed to calculate the equilibrium (where the EV for each player would be 0) as opposed to maximizing EV through exploitative play. You will gain EV from their mistakes they make by their deviating from GTO strategy but this will not be as much you could win by changing your range to make them pay as much as possible for those mistakes. As an example, if GTO for a node says Villain should be probing the river for 3/4 pot 40% of the time when the IP PFR checks back the turn after their CB gets called but they are doing so 80% of the time, you won't lose money by calling with the range the solver says, you will gain some money the times their significantly weaker betting range runs into you range composed on the assumption that they are betting tighter than than they are, but you will win significantly more if you start adding more bluff catchers into your range.

July 4, 2021 | 8:28 a.m.

Some very smart and experienced guys say that it's easier to learn and improve playing reg tables. Easier to pick up on player patterns, exploit fish better and fish lose at a much higher rate there. Something to consider if you have thoughts about becoming a pro or want to move up quickly.

Regular tables are where it is at. The key to wining at poker is play against people who suck at it more than you do. Not only is the overall pool softer at regular tables, but so long as you make it a point to switch seats or tables to make sure you spend as many hands a possible against bad recreational players you will see a tremendous boost in your winrate. Even if you could squeak out a bigger hourly volume wise at your current stakes playing zoom, it is probably not as much as you could make hourly playing one or two levels higher at regular tables. Play regular tables, work to position yourself with the fish one or two seats to your right, and use your HUD stats to pound the other players for every exploitable weakness you can find, and make bank.

June 29, 2021 | 7:16 a.m.

Learn to fear the overcall (when a third player calls after a bet and call in front of them). The first player to call could be calling wide under the assumption that you are bluffing. The second caller is not. They are calling because they think they have a good hand. With two calls on a flop this dry you have to be afraid of slow played trips.

June 29, 2021 | 3:35 a.m.

The 100bb stack HU range at preflopguru.com shows 71% (48% call, 23% 3B) defense frequency vs. a 2.5bb SB raise so 70% looks pretty good.

June 15, 2021 | 11:12 p.m.

x-c is probably the best action, and I understand that sucks. We have a really mediocre hand on a wet, coordinated, medium flop OOP. All the things you said are true and we don't have to like the taste of that but we do have to accept that in this situation we are better off getting bluffed off of, outdrawn on, or for that matter out-flopped in a small pot here than a larger one.

Basically, this situation is bad and there is no way to make it better, but we can make it worse and check-raising does so.

June 15, 2021 | 5:47 p.m.

I would rather have a club in my hand here in addition to the straight blocker to raise the turn like this.

June 15, 2021 | 4:02 p.m.

maco I agree. That combined with the number of rivers we don't want to see makes me feel that we shouldn't be turning this into a bluff.

June 15, 2021 | 3:59 p.m.

If I were to do so I wouldn't do it on the turn as too many players are going to insist on calling at least one bet with their 99-JJ that we can't rely on our SDV, plus there will be enough Q+gs or spade+gs calling that we are going to face a lot of rivers that we hate OOP. Without reads I would call check the turn willing to call a bet because of the possibility of draws trying to stab at the pot but would fold to a river barrel.

June 15, 2021 | 3:52 p.m.

1) We are OOP
2) We have a medium strength hand. We don't even have the best kicker.
3) Any diamond, any six, any 9, T, J, Q, or A on the turn turns our hand into a basically a bluff if we bet the turn or a bluff catcher if we x-c. That is at least half the remaining cards in the deck.

Inflating the pot on the flop when we are guaranteed to be in a dicey spot OOP on the turn over 50% of the time is not "thin value". It's basically setting ourselves ground to dust between reverse implied odds and the turn bluffs we will face OOP.

June 15, 2021 | 3:39 p.m.

Don't think there will be much difference between swings in Zoom/Zone vs regular speed tables, the hands just come out substantially faster.

I don't agree with this.

Even if there was some pool analysis of both the regular and fast-fold tables on a site that showed that there wasn't a large difference between the number of fishy recs in the zoom pool vs. the regular tables (and my experience on ACR leads me to believe that there is a non-trivial difference between the two) the inability to seat and table select makes for a considerable difference in profitability.

On the regular speed tables once the fish sits we have an opportunity against them every single hand until they leave. This gets magnified the better position we get on them. Having 100 hands in a row dealt to you with a 40vpip/8pfr sitting to your immediate right is a big opportunity for profit. The effort to seek out the players we have the biggest edge against and spending as much time possible playing raised pots in position against them is the single biggest thing we can do to improve our winrate and fast poker tables take that away.

This benefit of regular tables gets magnified as we move up stakes. If we can maintain the same bb/100 at a 25NL regular table that we could at a 10NLz table, are we really getting enough extra volume per zoom table to make up the difference? This will be even more notable if it turns out that the level of play on regular tables doesn't change dramatically as you move up? How much more volume do you need on a 10NLz table to make it worth it if you could maintain 75% you bb/100 at a 50NL regular table?

If you can't tell, I think zoom is something that benefits the sites more than it does any dedicated players who have goals beyond being rakeback pros.

June 15, 2021 | 1:24 p.m.

How frequent, how big, and how long your swings are going to be is a factor of what your long term winrate is in the games that you are playing. Zoom pools tend towards tighter players who are less likely to pay off light so your winrate is going to be correspondingly lower. As such, you will see longer, bigger swings occurring with greater frequency compared to regular tables.

June 15, 2021 | 1:07 p.m.

I don't play zoom so i am periodically playing deep. I don't se how stack size would affect my session length though.

June 5, 2021 | 4:47 p.m.

Our equity isn't bad if called on this turn since our flop check means Villain still has all the worse pairs and draws that they had on the flop.

June 5, 2021 | 4:40 p.m.

I see the point there but handle it differently. If we would bet the decent draw because the equity makes our bluffs more profitable then the addition of the pair to it simply adds to that. We get an additional two outs and have some SDV in the mix for the times that we check back rivers vs. someone who is chasing NFDs. In addition, it is a simple way to merge some medium strength hands into our betting range. I don't really know if one option is notably better than the other in terms of EV though.

June 5, 2021 | 7:32 a.m.

As an example of how I do it:
On the days i play I set a soft goal of 1k hands. I play 4 normal tables so thst is about 4 to 4.5 hours of play. Once that 1k is hit, i stop no matter what. Every 250 hands I take at keast a 15 minute break and see how I geel and how I am running. If I am running bad and feel less than great then I quit early.

June 5, 2021 | 1:48 a.m.

Would you check back the flop with just a K high FD and no pair?

June 4, 2021 | 11:40 p.m.

With practically no decent draws on the flop, the fact that we have the Ac, and no confirmed reads that Vilain has done this before as a bluff then yes, turn is a b-f.

June 4, 2021 | 11:26 p.m.

Bet turn at least 2/3 pot.

1) We are in a 3 bet pot so TPGK holds up better.

2) A late position steal vs. a 3B from the blinds is almost always raising AK. AJo is more in a 4B/fold category as is A4s and A7s. JJ nay be flatted enough to consider a possibility on this flop. This means that we are really only worried about JJ and 44 most of the time.

3) the 7c just increses the number of worse hands that might call.

June 4, 2021 | 10:44 p.m.

LOL, we started a group months ago to share them amongst ourselves for free.

June 4, 2021 | 1:43 p.m.

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