Minute 36 the AQ fold on the AA board, given the line if you know ahead of time you are going to be folding to a river shove do you think you may be able to capture more equity with a blocker bet here? Can get called by worse A's and know a raise is almost always a boat since worse A's aren't raising and raising here without the A blocker would be extremely tough
May 24, 2019 | 8:07 p.m.
First hand. Not sure if I agree with these Monker results and some solver work I've done recently lead to different findings. Idk it's just due to this specific board texture or what not, but I think saving all your strongest hands for a check raise or even a check call is very unbalanced. I think we need to include about 20-25% of our sets/two pairs/straight draws into this leading range, hands we can fist pump 3 bet jam the flop with.
I think this is especially important as population adjusts more and more to realizing checking back flops in position on many textures is actually a higher EV line than just closing your eyes and c-betting
May 24, 2019 | 6:37 p.m.
27 minutes: You mention q-10. Seems like this can almost never bet here given the way the hand played since I don't see you calling with worse, would you even call with q-10-j-x or q10 other relevant blockers? I understand your range when leading is heavily skewed towards value, but I don't think IP player is bluffing much in this spot and will try to show down most hands that got here as most hands that got here have showdown value, and I think fewer hands are leading into you for value than are calling your bet, so I think leading is certainly the choice here.
You sounded not quite definitive in this break down but I think this is one of those overlooked leak spots you often mention, where people often check to trap, get check backs on hands that might call 1/2 pot, and never realized they made a mistake. That being said just calling there in HU pot is pretty impressive. Even if it's hard to see too many calls from worse on raises.
May 24, 2019 | 3:21 a.m.
May 23, 2019 | 12:12 a.m.
If I help pay for these personally can we get more of this type of video? As a mostly explo oriented player who has not done enough solver/equilibrium based study being able to watch/listen to an exceptional equilibrium based breakdown of explo thinking is invaluable. Was incredibly fascinating (surprising) to see some of the hands, especially what the solver is doing with blockers without additional equity seems to deviate a lot from population
May 20, 2019 | 10:18 p.m.
Was sent this hand from Lex Veldhuis's stream yesterday. In my opinion this is a clear example of a very common leak: Fear of Turns. Hero gets denied potentially huge equity due to fear of poor visibility on later streets. Now of course this should be a factor when evaluating hands, but not at the detriment of over-folding this badly. I don't play a ton of PLO tournaments but I can't imagine ICM factors in enough to ever justify this? Thoughts?
Additionally would be curious to see someone run this through a solver and see just how far ahead of OP's range we are here.
May 19, 2019 | 7:51 p.m.
Just getting to this series now. Last hand on bottom left, wasn't talked about at all with the focus on the X/R top right hand, but shouldn't this be a perfect candidate for smaller c-bet rather than your larger sizing? You have board crushed, Ks blocker to protect against virtually any turns, seems like a good value hand to use for smaller sizing to protect your smaller sizing bluffs here
May 16, 2019 | 10:43 a.m.
Ryan Martin Just wanted to say I've been extremely impressed with your content. I'm a PLO cash player with only recreational NLH MTT experience who has only started seriously studying more MTT information in the past few months. Your videos almost always offer a unique angle that I immediately feel like I've learned something from and have very little fluff. This one is no different. Exceptional value for essential videos and please keep up the great work.
May 14, 2019 | 7:42 a.m.
Nice to see you figured out the WSOP 4 deck colors. One of these days I'll catch you while your on and get some of that sweet RIO money. Hope the charity stream went well.
Always great to hear your thought process as you play through hands at any stakes, love the live videos.
May 12, 2019 | 8:37 a.m.
Minute 8, would love some more detail on why you feel it is optimal to slow-play most of your under-fulls other than letting OP turn back door draws. Vrs range BD draws have to be a very small % of his continuing range on the turn, given that A) he has to have a combo with a BD draw, B) has to hit the BD draw then C) choose to continue barreling with it on a paired board. My concern with slow-playing too often oop in these spots is that we often allow Qxxx that doesn't improve to get away with only firing one more street, where I think raising gets stacks in on the turn the majority of the time. I think this is especially true when A) the bottom full is this small given that (almost) all danglers to the queen will be overs and B) we unblock the A/K kickers that op will happily be stacking off with on the flop or turn. Against a hand like Kq10/10 the wasted potential value by slow playing and risking a check back on the river seems more significant than inducing from back door draws that got there on the turn.Is this too much of a 6max line of thinking where in reality a Q essentially always gets it in at this SPR HU?
I also feel like we lose visibility with each additional street here, so part of my reason for not wanting to slow play as often may come from the lack of being as confident where I'm at as the hand progresses vrs knowing I can get it on happily on the flop without making a mistake
May 8, 2019 | 5:04 a.m.
At 37 mins seems crazy to me that 678A with a suited Ace would be considered too wide to open in your position. Hand has exceptional post flop play-ability and gives you board coverage in spots where OP is going to play back at you not respecting your actual combo when you smash the flop. I think this is one of those hands that shows why solvers aren't the end all be all be all of pre-flop ranges.
At 39 minutes on the AQ2 flop you mention you might expect OP to c-bet "too often". Can you give an idea of what you feel too often might be in this spot? 80%? More?
May 1, 2019 | 9:56 a.m.
I do feel that population under-bluffs significantly on paired boards as the bb caller, and getting into that a little deeper I think we find hands that likely should be incorporated into a balanced x/r range x/calling the majority of the time. I believe this is for two reasons. A) people believe their "board locked" hands constitute anything with a full house or when the trips are the over-card, any good trips and thus believe they will lose action raising and are "trapping" by calling and B) over-estimate the range advantage the PFR has on these boards. Due to this I think we see a lot of players using a merged betting strategy with a low amount and an extremely high cbet%, and in many games where that isn't being defended against correctly I think this is the best play. I think I'm guilty of over-calling here as well.
Nick Johnson so because of this I'd like to see a video on the opposite angle, how we should be attacking a merge strategy that population seems to be incorrectly over-implementing. What hands actually make up the call portion of or range vrs the value raise and bluff/semi bluff portions?
April 27, 2019 | 10:23 a.m.
Confused by the hand on the right at minute 2. Your analysis seems still partially undecided about this line albeit not thrilled with the river lead. I'm confused as what the purpose of a river lead here with this combo would ever be? Do we think the low straight is folding enough to a lead here? On the surface this looks to only be bluffing out AQ exactly as most 10's taking this line have a straight or boat with them?
Edit: Oh ok after hand completion you say all in all you should likely check. I should wait until you re-analyze to type these questions ha.
April 24, 2019 | 7:27 p.m.
Love the breakdown in these videos and again especially as it's against players I'm recognizing. Although in hand 2 you should know its Omaha4rollz, he just has it, no need to analyze further Kappa. Very much looking forward to the 6 max video.
April 24, 2019 | 7:17 p.m.
LOVE this video. As someone playing in this game would love to see more of this content selfishly. If I can ask you about any reads/info you have on these players privately let me know. In general great insight and I especially liked the range analysis on the first hand. This is a spot I would be snap folding the flop but I think your point has merit about better players ranges. Def helpful to consider what the true equity vrs range is on this and similar spots.
April 3, 2019 | 7:45 a.m.
Pretty deep to get stacks in with KK and a gutter but having the 8 is huge. Problem is that flop is super dry, player raising in a 4 way pot is just always a set or a big wrap so you are never ahead in equity on the flop. If you put him on a wrap it's a reasonable call and plan, but another problem is many of his wraps may have the 6 in it. Def could have 5679 or 67910 here etc.
April 1, 2019 | 3:25 p.m.
First I think its equally likely BB has a 9 to a flush. 20% is high when you have a blocker.
SPR is low enough that you can't be making too huge mistake calling, but as GoW says i'd be making this decision based on opp's style most of the time. Without any variables probably reluctantly folding the turn
March 30, 2019 | 8:16 p.m.
Great glad we got all 3 options covered now Kappa.
This is the type of hand you can put in a simulator and find out the "correct' line, but in reality depends on oops stats and play. If your note and his stats indicate he's 3 betting with a wider range than solvers would can call or even 4-bet, but I don' think a 4 bet is ever right against a standard player here JJ combos have been shown to be extremely weak against his continuing range so would be turning your hand into a bluff.
March 30, 2019 | 8:10 p.m.
I am of the opinion that button straddle's reduce action in PLO games, especially if the blinds have to act first. Should only be allowed after the blinds for betterment of the game
Regarding strategy, assuming the ante is not counting towards the pot pre-flop seems like you are going to need a wider range with insane pot odds every hand. I would gauge how the game is playing, if it's limp heavy start raising more, if its raise heavy try to limp-3bet with the top of your range as your only real chance to isolate since I would imagine raises are getting called 4-6 ways most times preflop.
March 30, 2019 | 8:05 p.m.
If anyone is questioning the quality of ACR player just thought I would post this hilarious before and after picture. This is against a supposedly decent reg taking a very unusual line to say the least. Not exactly sure how this happened but happy to be the beneficiary. Amusing to try to figure out how we got from 375 in the pot and him checking back the flop to that result with that hand. Apologies for the awful image quality didn't screen shot.
How do we get from here....
March 30, 2019 | 7:56 p.m.
I don't agree that two players will have enough air on the A-J-x board that we are auto profiting from leading. I suspect the opposite that we actually get called here far more often than we should. I think this is a classic example of where the cliche "gto' is "o" for a reason. It is simply a more optimized line to check here, both with range AND with this specific combo. The theory that "we should lead because we are getting folds enough" on board textures that clearly favor the PFR is a very dangerous and likely costly line to go down.