johnmorgan's avatar


18 points

Thanks for the good insight.

Yes, I agree that MP+2's range should definitely be tighter than MP+1's. I think the main point is whether they have all AK in their range. If they do, the call is +EV (see below). If they don't, it is -EV (see 2nd example below)

When I run the following equity calculation, we have 26.1% equity:
MP+1 {QQ+, AK} | MP+2 {QQ+, AK} - Our call is +$4 EV.

When I run the following equity calculation, we have 20.1% equity:
MP+1 {QQ+, AK} | MP+2 {QQ+, AKs} - Our call is -$14 EV.

I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think we can completely discount AK here. Is my thinking flawed? I don't think fish will be differentiating between AKo and AKs here really.

June 14, 2020 | 10:32 a.m.

Cheers guys.

Am I right in thinking we need 68% equity against villain's range to make this a +EV call (109.23/(109.23+52)), which we just never have?

June 14, 2020 | 10:14 a.m.

Correct HH now uploaded

June 13, 2020 | 11:46 p.m.

CO is 32/9/AFq 42 over 68 hands. 3bet preflop 1/33 hands.
BB is 68/19/AFq 60 over 37 hands. 0% 3bet preflop.

RE: 46%

Do we overfold in this situation? Vs a simple range of 66+, we have 43% equity.
I think for this call to be breakeven, we need villain to have a range of at least {22, 66+, A7 and OESD's 98, 54, 85}.
However, vs just {22, 66+}, we have 40.7%.

June 13, 2020 | 11:10 p.m.

Note that MP+2 and CO post blinds OOP so I'm assuming they are fish. They have both just sat down at table.

MP is 19/10 (126 hands)
MP+1 is 29/18 (17 hands)
MP+2 unknown
CO unknown
SB is 25/0 (8 hands)

Are we folding vs MP 4bet but calling to any other shove from all other players here? We need at least 24.7% equity to call here.

Vs {99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo} for each player, we have 34%.
Vs {TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo} for each player, we have 29.2%.
Vs {TT+, AQs+, AKo} for each player, we have 28.4%.
Vs {TT+, AKs, AKo} for each player we have 27.3%.
Vs {QQ+, AKs, AKo} for each player, we have 26.1%.

They both need to only be shoving {AKs, QQ+} for us not to be +EV here (18% equity).

I guess I'm answering my own question! But opinions definitely welcome...

June 13, 2020 | 11:01 p.m.

Villain is 36/0 with AFq 60% over 14 hands.

Is this just always the nuts or can he have some KQ, QJ, K3 here?

June 13, 2020 | 10:48 p.m.

I would be 4betting here. I don't think you want to go to the flop 4-way with KK. Against 3 other players, you're likely to have around 45%.

I would be 4-betting to try and get the pot heads-up.

At full ring, I have seen players jam or call with such weak ranges in these spots because they don't understand pot odds and "there is just too much in the pot".

Yes, you'll run into AA sometimes and yes, they'll outdraw you but I think this is a clear 4-bet and KK should never really form part of our calling range here.

June 13, 2020 | 4:41 p.m.

Thanks Jeff. Yes, I would usually b/f w/o BDFD's here. Yes, I suppose we have to take into consideration that he is leading into a loose passive player and myself so likely to be more skewed towards the value part of his range.

June 13, 2020 | 4:33 p.m.

Thanks Raoul. I'm assuming he has more of a 9/10% 3-bet range here due to us opening OTB and the 6% is his total 3-bet %.

Do you think SB is always linear here and never has a flatting range? Even with the UTG fish involved?

Also, do you think there is any merit in giving consideration to his 3-bet sizing? Looks larger than a usual 3-bet from SB.

June 13, 2020 | 4:24 p.m.

An Honest Reflection
I've been reflecting a lot yesterday and today. This is mainly because I punted off 600bb's in a short-space of time in my session yesterday and I'm trying to find the cause of my tilt. This is the first time in a long time that I have allowed tilt to affect my game like it did yesterday. I believe my recent results lead me to believe that I could outplay my opponents and overrun them. This arrogance and illogical thinking is somewhat concerning to me but I am hopeful that it is a catalyst for me to take my poker game to the next level.

I will be going through each of the major hands from yesterday's session and dissecting them. I will post some of the hands & my thoughts here on RIO (either here or in the NLHE thread), including where I obviously spewed. It is only with honest and constructive analysis that my game will improve and hopefully rewire my thinking.

However, it is clear that there are at least two issues at large here: 1) in those spots where I punted my stack(s) off (mainly triple barrelling), I am playing between an unconscious incompetence level and a conscious incompetence level; and 2) I am being affected by Entitlement Tilt, which then led to Desperation Tilt, with the latter affecting the former. Therefore, it is imperative that take steps to address these issues.

In my review of yesterday's session, I can see clearly why I made a mistake in certain hands after applying a logical thought process to the hand. Here is an example:

1st Mistake - 3-betting this hand was my first mistake. J8s is not in my 3-bet range here, as if it were to include suited two gappers then my 3-bet range would be wildly imbalanced to bluffs here.
2nd Mistake - I did not put him on a range after calling my 3-bet OOP 150bb deep, which I assume will be QQ-55, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo.
3rd Mistake - I'm fairly certain my turn bet is +EV, due to our flush draw equity. However, the river does not help my range at all and is definitely not a great card to barrel, as it does not weaken his range. In addition, we block AJ, which could form part of Villain's folding range.

The above analysis seems solid but due to the aforementioned tilt issues, it distracted me from my usual game. Both of these are things that I will endeavour to work on.

Fitting Poker in with my Life
Over the past week or so, I've given some consideration on how I want to approach the game of poker going forward. With the lockdown releasing slowly here in the UK, my other responsibilities will becoming more prevalent, mainly my health and my business.

I love the game of poker. It really is a true passion of mine. Yes, it is great to have a side income as a result of playing it, which is probably the reason a lot of us playing this great game. However, I realise I am not suited to playing 50+ hours per week and frankly do not want to. I have many ambitions relating to the success of my business and I believe that I am a lot more suited (and likely) to make more money from this pursuit. I've always dreamt of playing higher stakes...playing in Bobby's room, Ivey's room etc. and hopefully this will be a reality some day but as a businessman/semi-professional.

I think in reality, when I return to work, I'll only manage to get in 10,000 hands per month. Maybe even less if I start playing live again. As someone who has always thrown themselves into something 100% and given it their all when trying to accomplish something, it seems unnatural that I will reduce my variance. My brain is a very simple thing - I can only really focus on one thing at a time, as I have a very compulsive & addictive personality. This is a skill that I have to master. I have to allocate time each week on playing, as well as studying to learn the game that I love; all while balancing this with the other important factors in my life. If I just leave this up to chance with little to no structure, I think I will ultimately fail. I need to have a plan and stick to it as best as I can. I've just started reading How to Study Poker (Volume 1) by Sky Matsuhashi, which will hopefully help me to structure my time that I allocate to poker.

How do you fit poker in with your life outside of poker? Is there anyone else who has a similar addictive personality trait? I'd be really interested to see how you manage this.

June 13, 2020 | 4:05 p.m.

UTG is 38/0 over 24 hands.
SB is 18/15 over 132 hands. 3bet % - 6%

Upon review, although I don't know specifically what SB's 3-Bet range is, I feel it is more likely that SB flats with a certain proportion of his range here due to the UTG limp and therefore is 3-betting with a polarised range. I would assume that 22-TT would make up a lot of this flatting range, as well as ATs-AQs, KTs-KQs, QTs, QJs, JTs, AJo, AQo, KQo.

I think UTG's flatting range is mainly linear, say the top 8% of hands. Once he flats, I have an easy call IP and with 3:1.

I think this is a flop that will hit with a lot of SB's 3-bet bluffing range, as these will sit under his flatting range. When he checks, I would assume he is doing this with a lot of his 3-bet value hands, given it is 3-way and the fish cold-called his 3-bet.

I think the fish would see this as a favourable flop if he has 77+, so I decide to check as I don't want to be x/r'd of my hand and get to see another card for nothing.

I think the SB is leading a lot here with the majority of his range due to the flop action. My questions are:

  1. Should we have a raising range here? And if so, is JTss part of it?
  2. What other hands would go into a raising range here, if there is one?
  3. Should we have a raising raise on a spade turn?

I ended up shoving but on reflection, I think this hand isn't great. We block TT/JJ, which could form part of his folding range. Feel as if I butchered the hand a bit so any thoughts really appreciated and welcomed.

June 13, 2020 | 11:14 a.m.

Thanks for the advice! Will have a look into it and watch that video!

June 3, 2020 | 9:28 p.m.

Yeah I 100% agree with your logic and the reasoning. However, I think to completely discount it is a flaw. Perhaps he has it here less than 100% of the time (for arguments sake - 50%).

Plus just because that's the way you would play or most low-stakes RIO members, doesn't mean that that is the way the reg population plays. This is even more amplified by the fact we only have 73 hands on him.

June 3, 2020 | 9:14 p.m.

Keep up the good work! Crushing the volume and win-rate!

Was looking into getting PioSolver - would you say its worth it? Do you have the Basic or Pro version?

June 3, 2020 | 5:46 p.m.

End of May 2020 Update
Stakes | Graph

Good month overall. Moved up to 100NL and ran a bit under All In Adj. EV but can't complain as I've been running pretty good since I started.

Been working a lot on my 3-Bet ranges IP and my defence vs 3-Bet ranges etc. Plus I'm posting a few more hands in the forums so I'm continually trying to learn. Some of the things I'm doing seem like basic mistakes, which once learnt I shouldn't really make again.

Here is my up-to-date results since I started the challenge.

If anybody wants to chat about hands/strategy/general poker, I'm always looking to for like-minded people to talk to. Let me know if you're on Skype/Facebook/WhatsApp etc and want to chat.

Good luck for June guys.

June 3, 2020 | 5:38 p.m.

Yes, I agree that it's a call.

We x/c. River is a T...standard x/f here when CO shoves and Fish calls?

June 3, 2020 | 5:23 p.m.

Why can CO not have KQ? The fish in the hand makes villain less likely to 3bet a lot of his range and therefore flat to keep the fish in.

We are crushed by CO's calling range when we x/r turn.

June 3, 2020 | 5:21 p.m.

I might well be wrong on all of this but I think the presence of the fish makes this hand very interesting. I think it definitely increases the amount of suited Ax that CO has preflop, as he’ll flat them to realise implied against a fish who will play poorly postlfop. I disagree that he should be 3betting these, as he’s incentivised to play them postflop against the fish.

Yes 100%, I agree that he is likely to flat suited A's on reflection.

I agree that the dynamic changes due to the fish in the pot. It makes it increasingly more likely that both Hero and Cut-Off have to play straightforward. We both have little fold equity against this fish.

I have c-bet into a multi-way pot vs a reg & a fish, so CO must put me on a fairly strong range. Therefore, when he bets turn, I think this is with a very strong range. I'm not thrilled about calling here but we are getting a fairly decent price (3.6:1) with good implied odds to try and fill up on the river to the effective nuts - 4 outs at 9% plus some of the time we will be good versus CO, so I think this is a call here with a plan to x/f non-A/J rivers.

June 3, 2020 | 5:20 p.m.

UTG+1 - 63/0 over 8 hands
CO - 20/17 with 25 AFq (73 hands). 0% 3Bet. Hasn't gone to showdown.

I think CO's range on turn after he bets is pretty much ATs/A6s/66/TT/KQ/AJ and possibly some AXss. However, a lot of his suited Ace's he should be leaning to 3betting pre-flop, which weights his range more towards two pair, sets & straight.

Whats your line on turn?

May 31, 2020 | 1:51 p.m.

Thanks for the comment. Yes, looking back on the hand and doing some review, our equity on the flop against both players PF flatting ranges is around 40%. Against their calling ranges, this is drops to ~30%.

Like you say x/c looks the better option.

May 31, 2020 | 1:25 p.m.

Thanks for the reply.

u cant be auto 3/4 cbetting this board with AA multiway to begin with

Could you explain why re: sizing please? Even versus 2 fishy players? Because there range versus us just has so much equity being lots of two pairs, sets, straights, pairs + draws.

Would you x/c or bet smaller?

May 31, 2020 | 9:46 a.m.

CO is 24/14 with AFq 48 over 194 hands. Folds to Flop Cbet 57% (7 hands). WTSD is 42% (33 hand sample). I have him marked as a fish. He has previously 3bet KK & AQo once each. Flatting range includes TT.

BTN is 26/11 with AFq 29 over 113 hands. Folds to F Cbet 67% (6 hands). WTSD is 9% (22 hand sample).

I can't see I'm ahead of much when he shoves turn except JJ. 50% likelihood JJ is 3betting pre-flop due to AQo being in his 3-betting range but TT in his flatting range. TT/99/88/QJ/J7s/T9/T8/98 are all in his range here.

Standard fold? Sometimes we just need a little reassurance... (haha!)

May 31, 2020 | 1:27 a.m.

I would like to have a better look at my flop cbet stats OOP compared to IP. Does anyone know how to do that with PT4? Can only find flop cbet in general. Flop cbet call IP and OOP does exist.

I think you need to run a Player Report in My Reports. Select the following filters:
- Actions & Opportunities Preflop - Preflop Raises - Any 2Bet AND Raised First In
- Hand Details - Player Position Flop - Active Player Relative to All Opponents (ON) and then "Is In Position or "Is Out of Position".

Then add the Flop Cbet stat to your report. I think this is what you're after?

May 28, 2020 | 2:23 p.m.

Thanks for all the comments guys. Do you think missed spades make up any of his range with flop floats?

Can u share the results ??

He had AA.

Fold is fine exploit vs this specific sizing. Never fold if he bets smaller, but this tend to be very underbluffed. River overbets is a very underbluffed node.

Yeah I agree, I think the population's tendencies in river overbets at these stakes tend to be more skewed towards value rather than bluffs.

Turn i would like to ck back most of time then evaluate on river

Check back...We're OOP? Do you mean x/c?

May 26, 2020 | 5:35 p.m.

Crappy position but my hand is strong enough to raise against a sole limper. I raise slightly larger than usual due to being OOP

No reads on Big Blind as I have only just sat down at table. Over 9 hands he is 11/11 & hasn't gone to show down. He hasn't done anything out of line.

I elect for just under 1/2 pot cbet for value. I expect to get floated on this board by regs.

Again, I fire a turn c-bet for 55% of pot. I am charging draws and need to balance my range when I fire the turn with air. I don't like x/c'ing or x/r'ing and we get value from weaker Q's and 88-JJ plus FD's

My plan was to b/f Heart or Spade rivers and x/c non-completed flushes to allow him to bluff his missed draws. However, when he overbets, this throws this into question.

Are we calling here? He's never value-betting worse and our required equity to call is 37%.

Is there enough missed draws in his range to justify a call?

May 25, 2020 | 12:19 a.m.

Thanks Citanul - I'll try that out!

How are you liking the book? I bought From the Ground Up and liked it.
Not sure how the Grinders Manual compares.

It's good. The current sections that I'm reading are a bit more basic on concepts such as RFI, Isolating, C-Betting and Value Betting but since I took so long out of the game online, I think its reinforcing why every decision at the table matters. I think as the book progresses the content becomes for advance so I'm looking forward to that.

I assume that the FTGU course will cover a lot of similar subjects. I'm most likely going to purchase the course too as it's relatively cheap considering you get the free month of Essential membership.

Good luck! Two solid graphs!


May 19, 2020 | 9:57 a.m.

UPDATE – 17 May 2020

Summary of Last Week

So, another week completed. Here’s a breakdown:
• 18.25 hours of play
• 5,088 hands

Week Stakes

On Friday, I took another shot at 50NL and it went a lot better. Ran very nicely and the games were really good. Won a good amount which has helped my bankroll immensely.
As I mentioned in my previous post, the play is very similar to 25NL. There are the same number of weaker players with few good regulars. My initial view (although it is a small sample size) is that most of the regulars aren’t 3-betting enough and those few that are, seem to be too aggressive in the wrong spots.

A few population tendencies that I have noticed:

  • Unless you have a specific read on an opponent, big bets (especially on the river) = strong hands and small bets = weak hands. This may sound obvious, but I think it is really easy to level yourself into calling that pot sized bet on the river with TPGK. Generally, villain’s betting range is A LOT stronger than his calling range. I’m finding that overfolding in these spots, is helping make my decisions easier and helping my winrate.

  • Again, generally, no-one is 4-betting light (with the exception of some crazy aggro fish). I want to see if I can filter my database to show what type of 4-bet range (>15bb or something) the population has. Does anyone know how I can do this on PT4?

I’m guessing the games are a lot better than usually though due to the Coronavirus lockdown. I’m guessing once restrictions are lifted in casino’s, live games will be just as juicy.

Results So Far



I’ve been continuing to work on my game. I’ve decided to read Peter Clarke’s The Grinders Manual. Being out of the online game for so long meant that I missed this when it was released and it’s helping me with a lot of concepts.

Continuing to work on my mental game by meditation and recognising spots where I could tilt etc (mainly after losing a big pot as a big favourite), as well as taking regular breaks while playing after an hour or so of play.

A Few Interesting Hands…

Triple Barrel Bluff
KK vs AQ
Nice Flop!

Outside of Poker

I’m currently changing my lifestyle to a healthier one. Having your own business takes its toll on you if you are not disciplined. Long hours, eating poorly and little-to-no exercise were all common for me. This resulted in me being at my heaviest in May 2019, with me topping 22 stone (140kg). I decided to make a change and start trying to lose weight.

I lost some but I felt I could still eat crap and lose weight. Food was always my go-to fix when I was stressed with the business. After consistently telling me to get my health checked, my best mate told me to purchase an online blood test through Thiva. In March 2020, I did it and sent off for the results.

The results weren’t good. Included in the test was a HbA1c test, which measures your blood glucose levels and ultimately whether you have diabetes. Mine was 108mmol/mol, which was over twice the healthy amount. I forwarded the results to my doctor and received a phone call later than afternoon asking me to get down to the surgery immediately. I felt like a lorry had just hit me. I had previously thought I was invincible but there is something truly scary of a doctor telling you to see them urgently. I had a blood test the next day and it confirmed the original test. I was diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes.

Over the past 2-3 months, I’ve been focussing on my diet and health and I am determined to reverse diabetes. Here is another graph (non-poker related) that I am proud of:

I’ve got another HbA1c blood test in June, so hopefully I can come off my medication. My eventual goal weight is 70kg but getting under 100kg will be a huge achievement by the end of Summer.

Not sure if non-poker content is enjoyable here. Let me know what you guys think.

Current Bankroll Online - $1,746

May 17, 2020 | 5:08 p.m.

Comment | johnmorgan commented on GTO Lifestyle

That's right but FT is the same player pool as Pokerstars I believe. Are you playing zoom or regular tables? 6-max or full ring?

May 14, 2020 | 10:13 a.m.

Comment | johnmorgan commented on GTO Lifestyle

Good luck! Where do you play?

Your English is good (coming from an Englishman!).

May 11, 2020 | 10:58 a.m.

UPDATE - 11 May 2020

Ok, here are my results for the past week.

So I put in just shy of 19 hours last week over the last 8 days, playing 5,318 hands. As I'm reading other blogs on RIO, I'm seeing other users putting in this amount of volume in one session! It is extremely hard to put in serious volume playing at regular tables. However, I maintain that I believe the field to be a lot softer than Zoom tables and I am banning myself from adding more tables than my current set-up of 4.

As you can see, I took a shot at 50NL that did not go that well. I would say that the standard of play is not that much better than 25NL and I ran into some bad spots. Here are a few interesting hands:

1 - Pretty standard spot

2 - Again - I think this is standard

3 - Getting funky with 32s - N.B. I though he went all in on when he 3bet as I wasn't giving 100% of my attention to it.

4 - Interesting spot w/KK - I think my line is fine here. I think we could shove the river instead of my bet sizing to get value from any Jx. Villain was 31/7/Afq 14 over 30 hands. We're loosing to JT, T9, 22, JJ & AA (56 combos) and I think the following are calling (AJ-QJ, QQ, J9) and KQ and FD's fold. What do you guys think - too thin?

5 - I think I should have just flatted his 4bet - villain was 15/15 over 40 hands and 27% 3bet %.

6 - Third nuts vs nuts

7 - Fold on the river - levelled myself into calling

8 - Got the blockers to straight!

I'm playing more aggressively post flop and trying to find good spots to 3-bet/squeeze pre-flop. Most players at this level are not adjusting at all to being 3-bet. I've been watching Peter Clarke's videos on 3-betting and trying to implement that strategy into my game. In addition, I've been brushing up on my c-betting. I'm around 55% since watching the video (previously I was up at 63%). I don't think many regulars at these stakes will be exploiting this but I want to improve my game now before going up the stakes. In addition, I have been x/r'ing more players and looking for good spots to do so, which I did not utilise as much before.

Before yesterday's session, I meditated for 15 minutes. I did this because I found myself getting frustrated with some results where I was a big favourite and my opponents hit their 2-outers etc. This was affecting my play and I quit a session on Saturday early because of this.

I've downloaded the Primed app and did a "primer" prior to yesterdays session. I am trialling the app for free for 7 days so I will let you know how I find the app and if it has a positive effect on my game. Has anyone else have any thoughts about meditation prior to playing or a warm-up routine?

I'm also finding my concentration dips when I play over one hour. I am going to introduce regular breaks and avoid distractions while playing.

Graph so far

Things to improve on

  • Take a 10 minute break after 1 hour of playing.
  • Avoid distractions while playing (put phone in another room, close RIO etc).
  • Meditate prior to sessions

Current Bankroll Online - $1,196.

May 11, 2020 | 10:51 a.m.

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