Preflop size is bad, this deep oop go 5x min. OTF, if you are going to bet, you picked a good sizing, but this deep, I am not even sure if we are even supposed to bet it. He has all the sets and JTs plus many draws with really good equity.
When I am not getting raised OTF, which I would assume would happen most of the time when you are up against sets and straights, I feel pretty good about that turn, so as played, I think we can keep betting to 2/3-pot.
OTR, unless we are against a maniac we can x/f. Many of his missed straight draws like T9s, QTs and T8s are checking behind, we are blocking KTs so there is really not a lot of Tx that are calling 2 streets to huge sizings that he could turn into a bluff OTR.
April 14, 2019 | 11:41 p.m.
I can't really distinguish the small numbers, but it seems that in the first image ICMizer has you calling down to 44??? Is that vs AQ+ and JJ+ for the shover? What about the 3bettor?
Even in my calculation with really wide ranges those hands don't even come close to a call. Is that because you also have AQo?
April 10, 2019 | 3:09 p.m.
I don't think so. This deep in a tournament, I would assume a lot of players are shoving hands like AK, AQ, AJ, 77-TT, etc. for 15bb, and only open raising their top 3-4% of hands and some raise folds.
Since the % of raise fold combos vs the % of raise call combos is much higher than it would be on a chip EV spot, AQs should be a shove.
You really need a strong read that he is a mega nit to fold here.
April 8, 2019 | 10:33 a.m.
Yea you have to call imo. Specially vs weak players who will overestimate sets and two pair in this kind of board I don't think you can fold any made flushes. He might also do that with some random AxKd, AxQd, etc. that you are doing very well against.
April 8, 2019 | 10:24 a.m.
If you think your opponent will fold Tx and lower PP by the river, seems like a good candidate to bluff. We don't have any natural bluffs in this spot, so I guess KQ is the closer it comes to it. Also you are also blocking KT and QT, which makes is even less likely that he has those hands, rather than a random stab or a low PP.
That said, you need to be prepared to fire any river that is not Ax, Kx, Qx or Tx.
April 8, 2019 | 10:18 a.m.
For ultra wide ranges we can see that JJ is still not making much. What ranges did you use to make JJ a printing call? Would be interesting to know if we are using completely different ranges or that the programs are giving considerably different results.
April 7, 2019 | 11:54 a.m.
Even if you overbet a good river after x turn, you are still making less $$, since you miss the value from his 9x that might fold to the overbet OTR and you don't build up the pot size to get max value on the good runouts. The size of your overbet is probably still smaller than the size of a 2/3-potsize bet if you had built up the pot OTT.
When you see that flop, you should be thinking 3 streets of value. Worry about raises when they happen, don't let the possibility of it cause you to make bad decisions.
Just think of how tiny a portion of the range he is calling on that flop to your cbet 6x actually is.
April 7, 2019 | 11:26 a.m.
For 30bb, the answer is really dependent on the villains, specially on MP2. If you think he has a bluffing range vs UTG, then JJ might become a call, but its probably still fairly close.
MP2 probably is flatting more hands at 30bb eff vs UTG, for example 99, TT even JJ that he is 3bet calling vs 15bb eff.
I recommend you use Equilab to play around with villains' ranges to see how JJ does, a specific answer to your question will not help you much since the solution is really sensitive to the ranges.
April 4, 2019 | 10:33 p.m.
Vs that size you can probably fold river vs most opponents on that runout.
I don't really like the turn check, he is not folding any Ax, any 9x and maybe he calls a 2nd barrel with 78. You are missing a ton of value just because of the possibility of him having a 6.
You want to attack paired boards with your strong holdings, people are just not going to fold if they have a piece.
April 4, 2019 | 10:20 p.m.
Pre, vs any reasonable opening range from CO, KQo is more than profitable for 25bb. Calling is good too. Pure bubble and FTs is dynamic dependent, but it is never horrible except vs an ultra nit.
Turn really sucks but I think shove is best. For value, he is playing all his Ax that way, specially with a diamond, and maybe Kx and Qx with a diamond, we want to try to extract value from all the things that are paying us off in this street, since there are many bad rivers that either kill the action when we are ahead, or allow villain to get there with his semibluffs.
If you were 10-15bb deeper you can consider doing something else OTT, but I think we are too shallow in this case.
April 1, 2019 | 7:36 p.m.
I think vs that size is a call, although not a happy one. He can be doing that with worse Ax. I would only fold if I had the read that he is really tight, so that we can remove a ton of offsuit Ax that we need in his range to make this call.
March 30, 2019 | 1:21 a.m.
"Should no adjustment be made?"
I guess it entirely depends on some sort of weighted ABI/Bet amount ratio.
What are the bet's conditions exactly, you win X amount for every STT you outlast some other bettor or do you win X after playing several STT and winning some sort of last longer leaderboard?
What is the amount waged?
March 30, 2019 | 1:09 a.m.
I like your analysis and I don't think you played the hand terribly. If he was tight as you said, probably betting around 1/3 pot OTF is slightly better than checking since he is not folding any PP, Jx and his best Ax.
As played, I would bet OTR. Many of his FDs will contain either QXcc or JXcc and if he is passive he might not even value bet JX if you check to him, and judging by your reads on villain, he might not be bluffing enough OTR to justify a check.
As for the sizing, I think it depends on your image and the table dynamics. I don't know how will an overbet be perceived in a live 1-3 table, but 1.5x pot seems a reasonable size considering the part of his range we are expecting a call from, since anything that is not Jx, Qx or better will have a really hard time calling even a tiny river bet.
March 30, 2019 | 12:56 a.m.
I would start by playing a few thousand hands, to get the feeling of the game again. Even the micros are probably a bit tougher than a few years back, but at the same time there are many more free resources online.
You can watch good players on twitch and youtube as a way to start studying in a light and easy way, or if you have a membership here there are infinite videos in the essential category.
March 30, 2019 | 12:32 a.m.
This is really stats dependent unfortunately. Vs a decent regular with moderate 3bet stats you can peel, and vs very high 3bet stats you can either peel or shove. There are regs that haven't 3bet MP vs EP in his entire life and then we can even fold.
With no info, since he went through the trouble of making the 3bet over 3x 25bb deep, if we want to be on the safe side we can just fold.