Thanks for the reply.
Yeah, its definitely true that post flop tendencies will affect optimal exploitative pre flop play. However what I am really aiming for with the current study I am doing is to get a nice functional set of preflop ranges together to give me a platform to start analysing post flop play. When I am done studying preflop, I will start into looking for population tendencies post and I might well tweak these ranges based on what I find. One thing at a time though :)
Aug. 15, 2019 | 7 p.m.
I understand the points you are making but I think you might underestimate just how much value one can get from doing this type of study. First off, having a more strongly defined sense of how wide your range is preflop helps you to make better decisions postflop. Also, having a simple but systematic approach allows you to stop second guessing whether you should defend K7o or not, freeing up mental bandwidth.
Most importantly though its not just the size of the mistakes you make in a given spot that impacts your winrate, its also the frequency that you are in that spot. Having spent all this week looking into various preflop spots I have increased my opening frequency in the small blind from 30% to 65% and on the button from 38% to 55%.
I intend to study preflop for maybe 40-60 hours more before moving on to systematically approach flop play, building on the ranges I am identifying.
Aug. 15, 2019 | 6:49 p.m.
I am trying to build a preflop strategy based on data from Holdem manager and solver work. I decided to start with defending the big blind vs various open sizes from the small blind. I am using data from $10 zoom.
I observe that the small blind opens 41% when folded to (1700) instances. The most common open size is 3x, followed by 2.5x and min.So I ran a simple strategy over a (representative) sample of 33 flops for a 3x open.
So here, any hand that has a number greater than 2 beneath it is more profitable to call than to fold. I'm pretty happy to now assume that these results are valid. What I don't know though and can't think of a way to figure out is "Other than premium holdings, what hands should I be 3betting?" If I 3bet and get 4bet, how should I proceed?
I don't have a big enough sample to figure out how people are actually responding to my 3bets in these spots and it would take years to build one. Also the solver runtime needed to start just toying with strategies is a lot. So I wonder if anyone knows how to figure out what approach to take with 3betting?
Aug. 12, 2019 | 9:53 a.m.
In practice a lot of our opponents bluffcatchers will be pairs in a lot of spots. How would you block those without having a bluffcatcher/value hand ourselves?
In your K7238r example would I be right in thinking that, if we got to the river with them this way, hands like QJ or T9 would be the best bluffing hands? I'm thinking that QJ blocks KQ and KJ which might play this way and T9 blocks pocket pairs which are potential bluffcatchers and could play this way on all streets. Does this make sense?
May 30, 2015 | 10:27 a.m.
Hi Jack. I enjoy your videos and your style of explanation. I think that the fact you don't use a HUD and are playing against players who you don't know well is actually great for video making. I am grinding 10 and 25 PL and find that I really want to know about readless situations a whole lot because of the fluid nature player pool. I do use a HUD myself but when you have only 50 hands on an opponent or whatever it may give you a vague idea of their preflop ranges but almost nothing about whether they barrel aggressively or not on the turn. So I find these "vanilla" approaches to certain spots really useful.
At 28:12 you fold QJ97 suited to the queen in an unopened pot from the button. Seems you were just distracted by your hand history review right? For me that hand is maybe a somewhat marginal cutoff open but a slam dunk to raise when it folds to your button.