Think on your total overbet turn and call raise range, should be narrow.
Maybe shove turn at some freq
On this river, i expect IP value range to be
Straights and fulls
Bluff should contain some 9x and Jx
Then, J9 block some value and some bluff
I prefer to call Kx or even Q7 type hands blocking fulls and unblocking bluff
March 21, 2019 | 9:25 a.m.
EV of betting range and EV of mixed strategy?
these are easy maths
0.5% of total pot = deviation u can have
Feb. 18, 2019 | 9:17 a.m.
u block 1 out vs his FDs
u have more bluffcatching river potential ( not sure if u can call some river )
but 88 without diamond unblock more bluffs but probably u are folding river always
no idea about strong SH ranges but
i feel 88 cant bluffcacth most of rivesr and if u will be mostly folding u prefer block outs vs his flushdraws ( check is 8x8d can continue on river d some %)
i think this will change if u have a hand that will mostly call rivers , because u prefer let him bluff , but in this case 88 should be call turn + fold river
Jan. 23, 2019 | 10:03 a.m.
PF seems std vs 2.5x
flop i think u face 40% cbet right?
i think your combo gonna be a call at really high freq, with a heart on your hand will be a more freq raise
i think 98 with double gs can mix some raises without heart or something like J8 without heart but one over vs Tx, but most of your bluff prefer a heart ( block continue range and better turn+river bluffing spots)
best turns for your range should be 2-7 where u are still polar and villiange range didnt improves
J+ start improving villian range ( he would call a lot of high cards on flop )
if turn pairs with T or 6 should be bad EV spot
if turn makes flush should be high ev spot for u ( u are raising a lot of FDs on flop)
that would help u to think about overall freq on any turn card
i think your specific combo isnt great on turns because u block a lot of "call flop, fold turn" hands
Jan. 22, 2019 | 9:52 a.m.
the thing is that kalapoju comes to Nuno's blog to cry like a kid while Nuno doesnt care a shit kalapoju`s year
what happened is that kalapoju needs everybody loving him and sucking his ass (like u do) and Nuno said in his opinion kalapoju wasn't Top reg of the stake.
Ego player = cry like a baby
Jan. 14, 2019 | 12:07 p.m.
its sad to read you, i have no idea who u are but my impression on you is that you need to be admired and praised as a child and that's why you surround yourself with assholes
He doesnt think u are one of the best... OMG end of ther world...
Nov. 22, 2018 | 9:06 a.m.
agree with Kalupso, having multiple sizes here is diffcult, and probably u will be making bigger EV mistakes on turn and river than the EV u are winning on flop
and its much more work since u hace to study turn and river for any flop size
Oct. 30, 2018 | 9:38 a.m.
when "B" (or "X" in the book) is bigger than 20% results start to be positive while when B is lower than 20% results are negative
it is because?
Delta EV = Ev real - Ev calculated
Delta EV = (1-0.2-B) x 3 - (1-0.2) x 3
seems to be always negative result (except if B is a negative number wich cant be posible)
im missing something?
Oct. 18, 2018 | 5:25 p.m.
Hi, I know at optimal point B has to call 75% of the time (and fold 25%) because A bet 1 to win 3 and 1/4 = 25%. So A's bluff must win 25% minimum to be indiferent, so B must defend at least 75% so A's bluffs are not profitable.
Oct. 18, 2018 | 7:52 a.m.
i think your size should be acording to your range
when turn is a card that connect the.board i will go for a std bet size which allows you to be 'thiner' with some two pair and stuff like that
if turn was a blank and your range is still polarized i will use an overbet strategy
your specific combo can mix some checks
call\raises but i figure beting 66-75 should be ok and most common play here
Oct. 16, 2018 | 8:43 a.m.
first calculate your Z (optimal bluffing frequency )
Z= betsize / total pot
Z 1/5 = 20%
your betting range should have 80 value and 20 bluff
u know u have 20 value and this should be 80 ouf your betting range
then u can calculate u should bluff 5
your total betting range would be 25
where 20 is value (80%)
and 5 is bluff (20%)
in second point i imagine u try to calculate the villian fold frequency to make your bluff Ev=0
EV Fold = %fold * pot
EV Call = %call * ((pot * eq ) - cost)
- %call is the same than = 1-Fold%
- we are tying to calculte the point where Bluffs are indiferent then eq = 0
Ev fold = %F * 3
EV call = (1 - %F) * (( 0 ) - 1)
EV call = (-1 + %F)
Ev call + Ev fold = 0
%F *3 + ( -1 + %F ) = 0
4F = 1
F = 0.25
villian should fold 25% to make your bluffs indiferent
check this post:
Oct. 15, 2018 | 10:39 a.m.
at call 3bet image i see WWSF: 31
im not sure about a "standard" WWSF here but i imagine 31 is really low
being the caller with a capped range its not good to have high WWSF but i'll expect something between 40-45 ??
-Filter by pot size, like Barkn told
-post some stats
-post some hands
Oct. 10, 2018 | 8:06 a.m.
i will try to play at least 7 hour of poker and 1 hour study
I think change this for 50/50 grind/study would be a faster way to beat stakess
study more and play less with more quality would help a lot
Aug. 27, 2018 | 9:33 a.m.
IP: 12.8% nuts (8.5 flushes)
OOP: 14.8% nuts (7 flushes)
IP at 52.5% equity advantage.
IP: 11.3% nuts (3 flushes)
OOP: 14.5% nuts (6 flushes)
IP at 55% equity advantage.
equity advantage is important but i think u should check here who has the Nut Advantege, having less equity but more Nut hands its sometimes better than having more pure Equity
Maybe on A96s u have more equity but OOP has the Nut advantage and that should be important
June 29, 2018 | 11:13 a.m.
i have no idea but would try to comment
- you have more hands interested on bet, more nut flushes and more proteccion bets like overpairs and maybe some Jx?
-at same time villian has more Strong draws since he has AX offsuited combos with FD
(more than KJo QJo typoe hands)
-u dont need to bet for proteccion your TPs and dont have 3 street at high freq
-check doesnt give much "free equity" to villian like on J73 ( less Flush draws and no overcards on villians range)
I didnt worked a lot on monotone boards because are infrecuent and really hard to take patterns but its an interesting post
i would recommend u to solve more monotone boards at this spot and compare it with agg report, that should help a bit to understand "how Pio Thinks"
June 29, 2018 | 11:07 a.m.
Flop is check, check, turn oponent check and we are supposed to do mainly small sizing. for example Q6 is mostly check and Q9 is bet why is that?
i didnt worked with small delay size but i think Q9 will be able to valuebet some rivers again and Q6 won't
June 19, 2018 | 8:56 a.m.
take a look on OOP calling range,
I think Q9 checks more than 95 because is blocking more calling range , specially against a small cbet size and proteccion is an important factor too, Q9 checking retains equity better than 95
on the turn Q6 i think is hand that can check behind and bluffcatch river since i dont expect oop bluffing Qx hands on river
normally there are a lot of reasons for any play and is easy to miss something
i think comparing similar spots and search a pattern makes it easier
Edit: Take a look on Nuno Alvarez videos, his mental process will help u a lot to understand that kind of things
June 19, 2018 | 8:41 a.m.
do u allow OOP to bet river small size like 25-33% ?
i think EVs gonna be close anyway, but if u start checking all your Ax
your checking range will be stronger, villian should valuebet less -> bluff less
and checking now gonna be worse, i mean frequencies are important even with similar EV
June 19, 2018 | 8:12 a.m.
great idea to open the blog!
I am quite sure that you will achieve your goals, I am fortunate to see in first person how much you have improved, worked and loved the game.
You deserve all the success!
Gonna be a great blog GL!
Jan. 4, 2018 | 11 p.m.
im using 137% on turn, i think 2x is too big and villian plays are easier and his range on river much stronger, 120-140 is enought to put presure against his mid-strength hands and villian will have a lot of close decisions, if u made a 2x overbet
-your value should be stronger (= less overbet frequency)
-villian can fold more and his range will be stronger on river
obvs will depend a lot on any spot, im trying to use a "simple" strategy with only one overbet sizing + one std sizing , but im sure multiple sizings are allowed
Nov. 7, 2017 | 12:01 p.m.
i dont think u need to turn it on bluff even with strong ranges, from EP u have Q9s T9s T8s 54s and a couple of FDs to overbet turn. when u overbet u are polar, no reason to bet A5 or KT , If u have not much std combos to bluff i think solver would prefer to add some no-equity bluffs instead of turning good pairs into bluff
Nov. 5, 2017 | 4:14 p.m.
On AK3J7 as a run out for example, I think some combos in my range
that may end up being bluffs at some frequency are hands like KT/JT
and maybe even a hand like A5s."
u are talking about bet flop + overbet turn line? I feel that u are doing something bad if u need to turn A5,JT or KT into a bluff here, u can check turn very happy and use a more polar range
and at same time u should have Tx and Qx to bluff river with
im agree to turn some weak pair+blocker on bluff like Q3 T3 or maybe Q7 T7 but i think weak Ax and Kx should check turn most of the time
Nov. 3, 2017 | 8:02 p.m.
when u made lower sizing villian should raise more frequently thats why i thik its better put in lower sizing stronger draws ( can play well against raises) and
weaker draws like AQo on bigger size (u have a easy fold if villian raises) AQ blocks some TPs and at same time if u bet big on flop u are comited on A turn
Oct. 26, 2017 | 10:27 a.m.
whats your range? if u are playing a 3bet or fold strategy preflop SB vs MP your range should be stronger than villians even on that flop
in my opinion i will bet near to full range on flop with 2 sizing:
big sizing near to pot with_:
QQ+ some AJs (no bdfd) and bluffing some AK AQ KQ type hands nice blockers + some equity and nut FDs without gs like A5s A4s
lower sizing 1/4-1/3:
with value hands that needs more proteccion like your KJ, QJs or TT 99... and bluffing with strongest draws like T9c QTc KTc AKc
u can/should protect the lower sizing with strong hands that doesnt need much proteccion and blocks the calling range like JJ AA(with clap) AJs(bdfd)