Your thoughts on the flop do not make a lot of sense imo. You want to check back a lot, yet you give oop a 100% check frequency....
I believe this flop is not so bad for the co to be checking this wide. We have a little less 2p+ than BB, but with a 30% range it is not so bad. We have more FD + overpair type hands, so all in all I would say the flop is kinda neutral. With your actual hand I like a check though.
Turn and river I would probably play the same. With the 6 in our hand and just 1 blocker to the nuts I believe this hand is closer to a call than it is to a raise.
July 13, 2017 | 8:19 a.m.
Thanks for the replies. Note that the xr stat is filtered for BB vs BT specifically. I assume it is normal for it to be higher than overall xr. I am sure those that say i put too much money in with weakish hands are right though.
May 23, 2016 | 5:11 p.m.
While it's true that we don't need to protect vs anything, we might be missing out on some value in case he has a kqj9, akqj type of hand. So repopping flop or shipping turn certainly makes sense. Especially if we plan on stacking off anyway.
May 20, 2016 | 8:06 p.m.
So Leszek's recent video inspired me to anylyze some stats, and it appears I am leaking badly in BB defense. I am losing 45 bb/100 and 60 EVbb there
Because of that I went ahead and checked my street by street numbers for BB vs BT:
Flop Fold 37 Call 44 Raise 19
Turn Fold 40 Call 41 Raise 18
River Fold 51 Call 36 Raise 14
My preflop defense stas shifted quite a bit over time, yet my overall loss rate does not seem to be affected by that so much. Recent stats are about 70% call, 11% 3bet and fold the rest.
I strongly suspect I am going to far with marginal hands, probably not folding flop enough. Hope this gets a bit of a discussion going. Any input is appreciated.
May 19, 2016 | 9:29 a.m.
Kqj7 with a K high suit you open and call a 3b bvb vs a shortish stack. I've been folding in these spots, just because it seems like we are getting in a rio spot so very often. Mistake?
Dec. 5, 2015 | 11:32 a.m.
Given that hero is gonna bet a ton of overpairs or 2p hands to protect, while a lot of draws will x turn, I think peeling turn wide with the intention of bluffing a lot of rivers looks a smart line - on the actual river everything that can't beat AA is a candidate.
Oct. 7, 2015 | 12:32 p.m.
Hand started with 200bb, so a turn cr is too thin in my book.
Otr for one his range is cleary stronger than yours, for the most part because it contains a lot more 53; 87 isn't very heavily represented in both ranges I think. So because of that he doesn't have to fear a bluff raise pretty much at all.
Otoh you will have a ton of 2p, overpair hands that will like to just show down, so I am pretty sure he thinks that the value to be gained by betting vs those offsets the value to be gained by bluffing. How often do we have those QJT8 type hands in our range anyway?
Hope that make sense...
Oct. 1, 2015 | 12:15 p.m.
In the recent 10/20 zoom video pt.2 at the 15min mark Phil opens 9c5s6s7h otb and gavz calls in the BB. Stacks are 130bb
Flop comes 9d 8h 6h to give PG the low straight. gavz checks.
Now I am not interested so much about the actual hand in question, but more about how would approach that spot with your range. I assume we would be always betting the nuts with a redraw, as well as hands that can gii happily but villain will always have decent equity against like NFD+ sd.
Hope this can get a little discussion going.
Oct. 1, 2015 | 8:08 a.m.
Not that I dislike the video, but I fail to see what it has to do with GTO. We assume villain has a static folding/calling frequency, so we should bluff small and then vb the hands that beat villains' calling range for max.
June 21, 2015 | 2:18 p.m.
For one his raise is clearly for value.
Then it'll be a lot easier to proceed on turns and rivers when our hand - albeit strong equity wise - has no nut potential. Third point is that with the J blocker it will be extremely hard for villain to come over the top. Also we want J blocker hands in our raising range for the times we hold JJ. I think raising is way superior to calling in this spot.
June 1, 2015 | 8:07 a.m.
Nice video. Regarding the 3rd hand I am not sure I agree. Reason is that villain will have a pretty good grasp as when he can continue vs our strategy by his own holding. So we cant just barrel away with the air part of our range. The analysis in the video completely ignores how the very weak part of our range wants to play and that it may want to x on otf or turn.
May 20, 2015 | 4:40 p.m.
Just watched the first hand and I find it extremely hard to believe that they are getting to the river with that many flushes with the As and Ts on board. I don't really know how OR works, but those %s seem excessive. No mistake anywhere?
May 8, 2015 | 9:52 p.m.
I don't think it's a shove or fold spot anyway. We can still get away on some turns w/o worrying to much imo. So I like how Hero played the hand in question.
April 27, 2015 | 10:25 a.m.
Right at the end at about 54:00 you 3b ds QQ and get a flop of Q62r. You say that this is a very bad flop for our 3b range, so you want to x a lot. I just put some numbers into PPT and a 20% range vs an 80%!10% range has topandbottom+ 9.25% vs 10.5%. However the 20% range has 40% TP+ hands on top of that. We have 26% air, while villain has 30%. To me those numbers lead me to believe that betting this flop has to be very EV+ and we wouldn't wanna start giving free cards to all the 1p/air hands in villain's range. What am I missing?
April 20, 2015 | 8:34 a.m.
Like the vid. It's missing the part where we show our strategy is better than other viable ones. Why is it superior to say a mixed strategy with the SDs and betting some air?
We should look at bbs side and see how he might counter our strategy and then see if/how we should alter ours. You're right in that it's not very easy to counter as we are somewhat balanced. What I would do as villain at first glance on 665 would be to xc al lot of trips with straight kickers and cr or xc/donk a lot of mediocre draws along with trips+high kickers.
April 16, 2015 | 11:02 a.m.
At about 10min in regarding your in depth analysis of the turn decision on the kq52ccss board. You say you wouldnt wanna lead kqxx very often because of awkward river situations. I disagree as on this board we are rarely gonna have a bare kq. We are gonna have the bdfd and/or straight outs with it a whole lot. So when a draw hits we can construct our checking range so that it'll be hard for him to bluff profitably. In consequence I like the lead with our actual hand, especially as the club draw is not well represented in our kq range. So it sets up a good spot to induce on a club river if called.
Jan. 14, 2015 | 1:09 p.m.
thwhat you are saying is that fjutekk should fold range here, as he has the best hand he can call with (except 44, which he basically can't have). Now assuming that is true, ronnie should bluff every time as he is freerolling for the pot. So it cant be correct that both their play is bad.