Onkleb's avatar

Onkleb

674 points

G0LD3NF1SH

Yea ive read/heard about the benefits for exercising first thing in the morning. Thats something i should test out and see how it works for me. Now my warmup routine for morning sessions is wake up -> 2cups of coffee + breakfast -> random rio videos for 5-10mins -> to tables.

Ive been trying out a lot of different warmup routines in past years from really long and detailed ones to basically just firing up tables immediately. Surprisingly very modest / simple warmup seems to suit me better than very long and detailed one. I noticed that when i did long warmups i build up a lot of pressure for the session. So i ended up trying too much at tables and therefore played poorly.

What im trying to say that its important to try out different things and understand that what works for one doesnt necessary work for another. But if you have some habit/action which is highly suggested by a lot of successful people and research its just arrogant to not try it out.

Sept. 16, 2019 | 10:27 a.m.

Comment | Onkleb commented on Mobius Poker Blog

I think bluffcatching is good example of this. You call a bet and lose way more often than you win. Your unconscious mind registers that you lose way more often than you win - > "they always have it, i start folding".

Really only way to work past these biases is to see actual data.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 12:34 p.m.

Actually i think i had around 100k hands be strecth at start of 2019. But yea been running extremely hot these last months, but thats part of the game

Sept. 3, 2019 | 6:33 p.m.

Rough estimate, i say around 20% of regs try to counter my strategy somehow. From all regs id say 5% do it intelligently and others do it poorly.

Imo the trend in these past years has been to mostly focus on your own "GTO" strategy and not really care about what other players do. Sure having solid theory foundation is important, but that doesnt mean that you have to try mimic piosolver betsizes and frequencies in every node. What i think is more important is trying to understand what factors create the equilibrium strategy and how solvers strategy changes when opponent isnt playing perfectly. For that nodelock function is your best friend.

I do have blueprint strategies for many really common spots that i follow quite rigidly. But i do follow my intuition and feel a lot, especially when im playing my a-game. Its probably illegal to say that in 2019, but i truly believe there is unconscious pattern recognition and knowledge that you can access when your playing your best and have played and studied the game a lot.

Sept. 1, 2019 | 7:15 a.m.

Another month in books : STAKES GRAPH

I took almost 2weeks off and had only few days time to play. Ran pretty poorly at the end of the month, but still really hard to complain.

Now i have to start preparing mentally for 500z , especially to the swings. Im somewhat confident that im able to do well there, as long as i keep doing my own thing and not let variance affect my play. Im probably going to do some table selection and maybe mix stakes. All in all i hope to get descent volume at 500z before end of the year.

Aug. 31, 2019 | 12:10 p.m.

Comment | Onkleb commented on Mobius Poker Blog

Great stuff. I appreciate how you really put time and effort in your posts.

Aug. 23, 2019 | 1:35 p.m.

Apparently i was right about my hot run. STAKES GRAPH

Not much to say really. Everybody spewed when i had the nuts and folded when i had a bluff. But thats variance.

Taking one week+ off poker, but hoping to reach at least 40k hands this month. After that its time to really work on my game and start to test out 500z.

Aug. 14, 2019 | 12:07 p.m.

Volume

I dont remember when ive played this poker in such short time. Maybe back in fulltiltdays when i had to grind 100k hands to get double raceback or something. Also i changed my rhythm so that i only play in the morning / daytime. Im more focused, motivated and in better mindset when playing in the morning. Also i checked my database for over 1,2M hands and my winrate is very similar in morning and evening games. And even if i sacrifice some ev for that in think its worth it in bigger picture.

Also i managed to get back into exercising and meditation. Im trying to exercise every day i play and meditate every single day. So my perfect poker day routine looks something like this:
-Breakfast
-First session
-Lunch
-Second session
-Exercise
-Meditation
-Free time

Hoping to keep up with this and see how it goes. With my sample of 8 days feels great but maybe thats partly because im running super hot in tables.

Aug. 9, 2019 | 2:30 p.m.

Thanks! 3 tables of zoom is enough action for me. I used to play 4 but im able to focus better with 3.

Aug. 6, 2019 | 6:55 p.m.

Weskerise

Yes around 20. I dont think 20 buyins is like big downswing or anything. Also usually I feel more motivated when im “on a downswing”. And about putting volume in, since I play poker fulltime I don’t really let results justify my volume. Usually what reduces/increases my volume is how much stuff is happening irl.

I try to look my results only on end of month. It really helps your mindset to focus more on playing process rather than outcomes of individual hands. So for you Id suggest to try playing as long without looking at results as possible. If you are the kind of person that checks their graph after every big pot id suggest trying to play one day without results. Then slowly work from there to increase the length.

On deeper level you (and me) have to find out why you think short term results are so important. There is a lot of good mental game material out there to work with. Personally, I always enjoyed Jared Tendlers Mental game or poker 1 and 2. If you haven’t checked them out I highly suggest doing so.

Aug. 5, 2019 | 5:31 p.m.

Comment | Onkleb commented on Pursuit of Balance

But the biggest news in my life right now is that my wife is pregnant! Congratulations!

I think you have a lot of traits that make you an excellent coach. You have very analytical and structural way of studying and thinking about the game. Also it seems like you have passion for coaching. Cool thing about poker as a profession is that you can be flexible and decide what you do and how much time you want to devote to it.

Also 200z/500z pool is happy if you spend more time coaching (: And I'm playing an average of 50k hands per month which is a lot less than what I consider good for a professional player. fuck me, thats very solid volume for me :D

Aug. 1, 2019 | 6:56 a.m.

zinhao Saulo Ribeiro Fu guys. :D

Resolve
About pros and cons; at the end of our lives there are more things we regret not doing than there are things we regret doing. Even if you totally fail at 500z (which I doubt will happen)... at least you can't say you didn't try.
I totally agree and well said.

plasticelephant Nice to hear that you think that way.

baisedelong I think that is because of my strategy changes. Basically with my new strategy i win more pots without showdown than earlier. That makes my redline go up and w$sd go down. Im not sure yet if thats the most +ev strategy, but ill just give it a shot and see how it goes.

July 31, 2019 | 6:42 p.m.

Hello friends. Time for another month recap. STAKES GRAPH

Pretty solid month all around. I took almost half month off poker so keeping that in mind im pretty satisfied on my volume. I managed to play pretty solid all month if i recall correctly. I have noticed that if you have very structured way of making decisions in game you end up making less really big mistakes. I think i make my biggest mistakes when im trying to actively solve a spot in game which im not sure is +ev to begin with. When im playing my a-game i just stick on stuff im know is +ev and made deviations only if i have really concrete reads on players tendencies.

I kind of decided that ill start implementing 500z more actively after summer. Im not sure im able to dedicate enough time for poker in august so that i would feel really comfortable playing there. I know its not good habit to postpone stuff, but in this case i think its somewhat justified.

Ive been doing pros/cons list on moving up.

Pros
- Lower winrate is enough to reach same results
- Lower rake -> lower winrate is enough. Rake is around 6bb/100 @200z and around 3,5bb/100 at 500z.
- Possibility for making bigger profit $ wise
- Faster progress possible. At least i saw a big jump in my own skill pretty quickly when i moved from 100z to 200z.
- Going forward on my poker career

Cons
- Bigger swings in both $ and bb wise
- Tougher pool -> more difficult to beat
- Games do not run 24/7
- More evening and weekend sessions. Especially evening session are still a challenge for me.
- More stress (maybe?)

If you guys have any points to add im happy to hear them. (:

July 29, 2019 | 12:34 p.m.

Im just used to it. Ive been using it since it was released and havent really felt need to change. I think Hand2note is superior compared to PT4 or HM2, but i only use it for range research.

Hmm really tough to say just one number for proper bankroll management. Depends how quickly you are trying to move up stakes, what is your winrate in your stakes, are you ready to move up and down aggressively etc etc. Variance calculator is your friend with stuff like this, just model your current situation and see how much risk you are willing to take. To pick one number, i wouldnt play any stake regularly with under 50 buy-in bankroll.

July 22, 2019 | 5:25 p.m.

Ah yes now i got it. Just my thoughts about these, and im not stat expert by any means.

WWSF: Low=under 47%, Normal=50%, High=Over 53%
Won at SD: Low=under 45%, Normal=50%, High=Over 55%
WTSD: Low=Under 26%, Normal= Around 28%, High=Over 30%
Agg%: Low=Under 30%, Normal= Around 37%, High= Over 40%

Just made this up quickly, so dont take these numbers too seriously. Also to point out that preflop ranges have large effect on this stats. For example its totally different to play 30 VPIP and have over 50% WWSF, where as for 20 VPIP guy that should be quite easy. Also if you see 60VPIP funplayer with 37% agg% he is blasting off like crazy, even though hes agg% isnt that high.

July 22, 2019 | 6:29 a.m.

Barkn

I think with street aggression %, Won When Saw Flop, Went To Showdown and Won at SD% you can categorize players into different types. Classic example would be player with low agg%, WWSF and WTSD but with very high W$SD%. Thats almost always very nitty regular or tight passive fish.

But I think these stats are most useful for categorizing fish and trying to guess how they think about the game.

July 18, 2019 | 8:24 p.m.

Sure, heres few free tips:

  1. Get the best random number generator out there
  2. Complicate your strategy as much as possible
  3. Do not chance your strategy vs different player types, since your strategy is GTO to begin with.

100% winrate boost guaranteed. You are welcome.

July 2, 2019 | 8:35 a.m.

First 5figs month (finally): STAKES GRAPH

Not much to say. Played ok most of the month and caught some real heat on last week. Games have been really really juicy lately, which is always nice. Feels like that most winnings were just total gifts, but i take it. Happy to get 50k hands in given its summer here in Finland. I always take summer months pretty laid back what comes to poker. All in all pretty happy how things are going right now. But important not to get overconfident and keep working with my game.

Again, not much to say. Just wanted to share my results.

June 30, 2019 | 1:47 p.m.

Thank you sir. Always happy get feedback, especially positive one.

I havent shared my screenname in my blogs. When i started blogging early 2018 i didnt share it because i thought it would affect on how people play vs me (pretty naive). Also being somewhat anonymous is totally fine for me. But if you play 200z regularly it isnt too hard to figure out who i am, since there are only few finnish regs playing.

June 16, 2019 | 7:27 a.m.

100z i dont have database ready on my new computer. for 200z positional winrates . Like i have said earlier, i dont know what is good / bad in these. Ive been told that my bb and sb were good, but sure about that anymore.

June 10, 2019 | 6:46 a.m.

plasticelephant Saulo Ribeiro

Haha dont you guys worry about derail thread. Im happy to get conversation going. There are a lot of points so ill try to give my thought on some of them.

Faking results / graphs : Of course stuff like this happens. Its internet so be cautious what you believe in. Could be that im faking my graphs and i dont even play poker. You just cant know. But i would assume in mine and saulos case there is a bit smaller possibility for scamming, since we both have been blogging on your journeys for quite some time. Also if you buy coaching from complete stranger that just posted a graph i think you have responsibility as a customer as well. But my knowledge over this whole poker coaching industry is close to 0 so in dont get into that. Or not totally zero, i did 2 hours of coaching for finnish guy and after that he switched to PLO, so thats my advertisement.

Variance : There is basically no amount of playing that removes variance all together and reveals your ”true” winrate. Also winrate and skill attached to that is a moving target and games evolves all the time. So you arent going to find out your exact winrate on given game ever. And playing with variance calculator you can see that its indeed possible to run way above your ”true” winrate over several hundred thousand hands. But because poker variance is calculated by using standard deviation it means that results close to true winrate are way more likely than the ones in both ends of the bell curve. So with 7bb/100 and 500k sample 95% confidence interwall is between 4,17-9,83 bb/100. But results close to 7 are way more likely than these limits, because of the nature of standard deviation.

Winrates : If i understood you plasticelephant right you were saying that over 7bb/100 is practically impossible @200z? I have to strongly disagree with that. Lets assume that my results arent faked (your call, cant really do much to that) and that my winrate is best estimate of my ”true” winrate (what else you can really use?). I consider myself being average player in terms of skill. I have a lot of leaks, mental biases, errors in decision making etc etc. Guys that have worked me know that in many spots im totally clueless, and my favorite answer is ”i dont know”. What im trying to say is that if im able to get 6,85bb/100 results and i know how much there is room to improve, how could it be possible that higher winrates arent possible? Also thinking that my winrate would be somehow the best in the pool is just really egoistic, so only that makes me confident in saying that way better winrates have to be possible. Is it 8bb or 10bb or more i dont know, i just made those number up.
So to sum winrates up: Im average , 7bb/100 → if your good, over 7bb/100.

That some of my thoughts over those topics.

June 1, 2019 | 6:32 a.m.

plasticelephant

Thank you sir.

Haha i appreciate the bot comparison, but i have no idea what in my stats makes you think that... :D

Hmm yea i dont know what is considered good / very good winrate at these games nowadays. Mainly because very few people share their results consistently so there isnt much to compare. But if id have to pick, i would say something like 8-10 bb/100 would be excellent but very doable.

Yes i will try to reflect on that topic and really dig deep what is important for me right now and in the long run. I will probably share my thought on that here if im able to get any clarity on that.

May 31, 2019 | 12:45 p.m.

Resolve

Yea ive been trying to play more active and put pressure on spots which i didnt used to take.

Hmm id say rough estimate that 10-20% regs are trying to deviate a lot from their "standard" strategy.

Feels like I'm getting owned but I can't tell for sure.

Thats probably why many people are afraid to play really exploitable strategies. After few bluffs that went wrong you start to think that everyone knows what you are doing and are able to counterexploit your strategy perfectly. Sure that can happen, but usually that is not true. Most regs tend to stick on their own fixed strategy and arent really ready to deviate from it. Some regs try to counter exploit you, but do it poorly. Best regs exploit you more subtly even on spots you dont even know. But the best thing is that you dont have to be "better" than those guys. What is important is that you are able to crush fish and weaker regs with as high winrate as possible. And for that i truly believe that very exploitable, not even remotely GTO-solution is the way to go. Am i able to do that? Hell no, not even close.

Like in your example seems like you are attacking flop checkback ranges and you think some guys are now checking back too strong ranges. Ok if thats the case you take a note and change your strategy vs those. And whats interesting is that by checking back too strong range they are opening themselves to counterexploits either on the flop and/or on the turn. Basically doing this exploit / counterexploit game you should eventually reach equilibrium, or so called GTO strategy. Its just in most spots that solution is too complex to implement and very hard to nail right, especially in game.

May 30, 2019 | 6:31 p.m.

Ok ok time to wrap-up May. STAKES GRAPH

Really average month in terms of results. Ive been changing my strategy a bit which shows up in occasional spews and other inaccuracies. But all in all it felt that i was playing pretty well most of the time. Also im happy on my volume, getting almost 60k hands which is on the higher side for me. So all in all im actually pretty pleased how this month turned out.

Also i managed to reach 500k hands @200z (almost): graph
Cant get h2n show evbb in graph, but it is 6,85 bb/100 for this sample. Nothing special, but important for myself so that i have proof i can be a winner on those stakes. 500k hands is big enough sample to clear majority of variance away. Of course i understand that poker is such a dynamic game that there isnt like a true winrate from here to eternity. But for me big sample helps you deal with variance since you have some proof that you are able to beat the games and what you are doing isnt completely off.

That enough for now, later i try to share my plans for the future. Once i figure out what they are.

May 30, 2019 | 11:47 a.m.

Saulo Ribeiro

I agree and i understand what opportunities could be missed if not moving up. I consciously know that moving up should be a big priority, given what i could bring. What i tried to describe was how my view over moving up looks like and how its totally biased and untrue. But what i think is important that im aware over some of my biases and i can actively work to overcome those.

Ultimately poker is only our occupation. Our ultimate goal should be to maximize our satisfaction and well being in life as a whole.

Totally agree. Thats why poker as a profession is a balancing act. And what comes to life EV after certain point more money doesnt have great effect on your happiness. But on the other hand having extra $ in your account can really hurt either.

Lagasaurus

Right now poker players have excellent situation here in Finland. Poker is categorized as a game of chance , like slots, blackjack or any other gambling. That means that all winnings are completely tax-free. So there isnt any taxing that would incentive playing / winning less. On other topic, there is some chance that new government will try to block online gambling , which in worst case scenario could be really challenging for us poker players.

May 20, 2019 | 6:22 a.m.

Thats an excellent question.

Like i previously mentioned my longer term goals for poker arent as clear as they optimally would be. In the past i only saw negative things with moving up: Bigger swings, more competitive opponents and higher stress. I wasnt able to see the positives: Possibility to higher winnings in term of $, lower winrate is "allowed", possibility to progress in career and more rapid development. Its funny to look back to start of 2018 when my clear goal was to break trough to 200z. My biased assumptions about how tough the games would be just because you move from one stake to another were absurd. Fortunately i was able to see trough my assumptions and realize that humans are humans no matter the stake, and that same leaks and weaknesses where present in both stakes.

What im trying to say that my mind still puts too much emphasis on negatives that come with moving up and too little on things that are positive with that. Its hard to describe that to player that is really used to moving up in stakes. Remember that ive been playing nl100 stake regularly from around 2008 -> if i remember correctly.

So to answer you question :D : Currently no, but thats mainly because of my biased view on how moving up looks like.

May 10, 2019 | 9:37 a.m.

False Teller

When choosing betsizes you can think strictly in terms of theory ("what would pio use in this spot") or you can try to pick sizes that pool makes most mistakes against (some data is preferred to prove this one). In early streets you can usually just simplify to one strategic option, but on later streets its almost impossible to avoid "mixing".

I personally have three sizing options: Small bet (33%), normal bet (75%) and big bet (150%). Do i use these sizing in gto frequencies? Hell no. Do i think i have good reason when i use these bets? I think so.

What i tried to say in most post was that what size you pick doesnt really matter but in what frequencies you do it. And that there is so much what to focus on instead of exact sizings. So instead of worrying is this a big bet, small bet or medium bet spot id focus on how can i exploit the pool in this spot? Or do i have reads over this player / player profile which i can use to my advance in the hand? Of course sizings and exploits do hand in hand, but my point is to chance thinking from "perfect play" to exploiting play.

I dont know if i really answered your question, but those where just some thing that popped in my mind when reading it. (:

May 3, 2019 | 8:29 a.m.

Thanks!

Sure i have high tech solution for that. I just look the bottom part of the screen when i join tables :D

May 2, 2019 | 7:33 a.m.

Lagasaurus

Thanks and good luck in 200z tables! (:

May 2, 2019 | 7:22 a.m.

Elliot Roe Thank you sir. (:

To be honest i should do better job mapping what are my biggest goals at the moment and in the long run...

April 30, 2019 | 7:43 a.m.

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