I would incentive you to use tools that offer you solved ranges. Their is a lot of stuff on the market that offer those for free or a cheap price like pokersnowie or preflopguru.
There will be some more factors relevant to solve this with an GTO-approach (stacksizes and opening size for instance).
However: if you want to try this on your own, you could go like this:
We would need a tool for range visualization (flopzilla, equilab or so).
15% of hands equals about 200 combos.
Check which hands have more than 50% equity vs this range (for example: 99 will, while 88 dont).
All these combos will be your valuerange: So we 3bet those as we expect to make money with them.
The next step will be the tricky one: finding bluffs.
Per Definition in a linear range this will be hands that have less than 50% equity vs villains range but aint dead (like 28s or T2o trash).
We are usually picking hands for this that have a good playability and block the stronger parts of villains range (like KQs or A5s rather than 88 for instance).
But the amount of those bluffs we add to our valuerange is not that easy to pick here (as it depends also on some more factors). So i would gor for trial and error: add some KQs/QJs and test how you perfom with this range (we have to take your postflopskills into account here!). Add stuff like 88 or A5s and chek out again and so on….
Ich wizard would advise the following range for 100BB and 2.5 opensize (8,3%):
You might recognize that wizard is mostly folding even 99 (more than 50% equity) and prefers KTs over QJs. So blocking the top of villains continuing is even more important than value or good connectivity! (This is vs 17% open also!)
But as this is all on based GTO strategy pre and postflop; i would still advice an trial and error strategy for yourself for hands that are on the edge.
Oct. 28, 2021 | 6:19 a.m.
I guess im lowering my cbet% OTF already and so would bet more polar/bigger.
So i might be checking A3s.
As played: what is your reasoning for blockbetting the river?
It looks too thin to me to target mainly Jx as the amount of hands in villains range that we chop with or loose to is too big on this runout.
So i lean towards checking (mostly XF vs most sizings.I doubt a valuebet from Ax or a bluff of JT here often enough to make blocking or check calling that attractive)
Oct. 24, 2021 | 11:07 a.m.
Me wanna see more of this!
Oct. 24, 2021 | 9:47 a.m.
You narrowed his value-range down fine.
There could still be some air hands like some busted FD. But thats it already.
I really doubt that players tend to bluff AA or AQ/AJ here and everything else has you beat.
You are right in theory that overbets will be quite polar and so bluffcatching 88 will be a thing.
In practice though overbets are so underbluffed that there is rarely bluffs at these stakes: so this becomes a pretty easy fold to me.
No need to make calls like this at 2NL
Oct. 24, 2021 | 7:58 a.m.
Not quite sure which sites and limits exactly you are playing as i doubt that we can compare like 2NL pools with 25NL pools.
And in general you will be right that we need to focus on exploits rather than GTO-plays.
But something to consider about this spot is the odds:
So regardless of the fact if we are SB or BU: if villain will be going broke with KK+/AK we usually will get the oods to call this off with JJ+/AK if we assume a jam of about pot:
So im pretty sure that even in a super nitty environment (KK+/AK is about 2% of a jamming range!) it will be the wrong exploit to tightn up ourselves to KK+ as well.
We simply loose way too much money by 3betting/4betting and then folding to a reraise.
I know it sucks to get shown nutty hands all the time over a long stretch of time and we feel the need to react “accordingly” to this.
But im pretty sure you are picking the wrong way here mate!
Oct. 23, 2021 | 6:01 p.m.
I feel the need to make a crying call here actually. The problem to me is:
If we fold JJ on this concrete runout, we basically fold our whole range OTR. Still some A5s/A4s combos in Villains range that might find a triple, beside some spazzes or thin valuebets with AT.
From a theoretical PoV the Js in your hand makes your hand also a good candiate for bluffcatching as strong turned FD (KJss/QJss/AJss) are meant to check back OTR.
So this adds a slice of more bluffs in the triple line.
However: Its an ugly spot for sure and overfolding vs a pool that is basically underbluffing most spots will rarely be a big msitake. Its not like snap call with JJ at all....
Oct. 15, 2021 | 6:56 a.m.
Agree that Wizard is one of the most powerfool tools at the market atm. But its also pretty expensivve starting from 40bugs+/month.
However - my 2 cents on your hand:
- Its always tough to define SB flatting ranges and so Villain will be able to wake up here with 3x-combos
- We block 3x-combos heavilly
- Players at 2NL are heavilly underbluffing
- Beeing IP we will be able to maneuver the size of the pot better (make it grow) OTT/OTR
- Villain could find a fold with a FD actually OTF
So i would say that the cons outweigh the pros on 3betting the flop a bit and so I would usually go for a call due to the strong blocking effect of our hand: its really tough for villain to have a hand here that can go AI and pay you off
Oct. 15, 2021 | 6:38 a.m.
I expect this to be a mix in theory.
You are right that this combo qualifies in general. But we got to keep in mind that we will be waking up with a decent amount of offsuit hands here that fit this category.
And so we can not simply raise every backdoor combo (+front door draw) as a bluff always.
So i guess in GTO-land all 3 options (raise/call/fold) will be used here.
Even though sample is small i guess starting off with raising a bit more vs this guy, is fine.
Oct. 14, 2021 | 4:46 p.m.
I see a misconception in this: "If you could guarantee that your opponent continued to play nash you could throw away all of your 0 EV hands."
This is not correct. The reason why some hands become 0EV is due to the fact that they win/loose kind of the same amount vs several regions of Villains range. So basically folding them 100% vs nash would be a mistake because Villain would gain value with his bluffs without deviating from nash.
Still right that the concrete mix will not have huge impact on the EV though....
Oct. 11, 2021 | 8:29 a.m.
Agree with above. I would ask myself: What are the worst hand that we come to this spot that
a) dont have SDV
b) dont block villains folding range too much. So your combo could be a jam 100% in this spot while the combos of spades will be a mix i guess (still mostly jamming as Villain floats backdoor spades that beat us).
While A2ss/A5ss and other strong spades+overs will be mostly checked
Oct. 11, 2021 | 4:55 a.m.
Seems like a spot to me that i would play rather polar.
Might be interesting which TT exactly we have (So do we block JTdd/JTcc?).
But without further checking a solver, some thoughts:
- QQ+ will be 4bet nearly pre i guess: So we hold kind of the nut PP
- We block T9s combos
- 22-66 are counterfitted and have incentive to bluff if we check
- Villain has some 7x and (depending on our suits) a somewhat decent amount of Jx in his range
So even if we are holding the nut PP, i would say that betting small for value gets a bit thin and the arguments for checking especially TT are more weighting.
However: I expect PIO to mix this spot:
Hands like QQ+ are still strong enough to go for value and prefer a smaller sizing (1/3 or 1/2) to get called by worse, but
Hands like Jx/7x/89s/T9s and blockers to Jx ´(KQ/QTs) or FD might prefer a bigger sizing or even an overbet.
Looking forward to your analysis....
Oct. 7, 2021 | 6:22 p.m.
Imo you are thinking a bit complex about this spot.
I would be carefull with thinking above level 1 at NL5(=how does villains range interact with the board).
So i wouldnt care too much about blockers as i dont give too much credit to my opponents to think about my range here.
The flop smashes villains 3betting range, we still have enough equity to XR though.
But once we get called, im just giving up this turn.
Not sure why you discount flushes in villains range so heavilly, but as the main (flush)draw still bricked, i at least expect a call from every set/2p/AK/KQ with a FD and obv every flush.
Thats just a bunch of combos that will look you up without caring about your range here :/
Didnt check it out, but i expect a solver to act like this as well.
Some KdX or JdX combos will be enough here for bluffing on a board that is simply too bad for your range…
Oct. 4, 2021 | 5:37 p.m.
Your plan sounds solid to me.
However: i dont think we 3bet too many weak Ax hands vs MP here?
Like AQ+/ATs+ and only some wheel AXs?
So we really struggle to find too many bluffs OTR and so could still be trippeling off ignoring our spade-blocker. The Kx-blockers are pretty sweet here.
Might be another story vs CO/BU.
But still have to mix it somehow i guess
Oct. 4, 2021 | 4:55 p.m.
Pre looks fine to me as we create an effective SPR of 3,7 or so with SB. So we still can play a 3-street-game and keep on beeing somewhat protected vs BU as he will have trouble bluffing as long as SBis around.
That said: i expect every bluff in Villains (BU) range to be kind of equity driven.
But there is not a lot of hands that fit this category. Thats my main reasoning why folding turn is fine as well
Oct. 1, 2021 | 2:37 p.m.
Do i miss something? This seems to be an incomplete raise and so button shouldnt have the ability to raise again OTT.
As SB is short i expect some thinner shoves from pair+draw/2p or even a lower set.
BU sizing is usually not a thing OTT as it makes not too much sense: why should we be potting a nutted hand here?
I agree that it will be close:
We need about 25,3% equity. We will be around 23% vs 2 flushes and will be crushed if we face a flush and 2p/set (we will have about 16% then).
Its a meh spot and i lean towards calling (would hate to see BU potting with pair+draw and SB playing a lower set or 2p). But i dont expect this call to be printing money either….
Sept. 30, 2021 | 12:55 p.m.
Not sure which tool you did use for this? Did you set up any weightening or so? Because this is what flopzilla is telling me about the equities:
Im pretty sure there is an technical error somewhere in your analysis
Sept. 28, 2021 | 5:22 p.m.
As you highlight the word „nobody“ in your post, i assume you play loose passive rounds with a lot of calls preflop and OTF from various players.
If this is is the case you are in wonderland:
Miss the flop: give up (unless you have strong backdoorpotential).
Hit the flop: valuebet the hell out of them (3 huge really big bets!)
I know it is frustrating to simply play fit or fold (with mostly just folding), but the times you hit the board and have customers that pay huge beys will make up for all this insanely in the long run.
Sept. 25, 2021 | 6:47 p.m.
This spot offers several strategies i guess. And in a HU scenario i would say that your split into 2 sizings make a lot of sense.
We could also go for 1/3 with range instead.
However: as we went to the flop in a MW scenario, i would usually choose a strategy that has no small or mediocre sizings.
Main reason is: we can not really go for thin value in this spot.
So 1 option would be to split between a big bet (near pot or even overbet) and check.
But the more common strategy would be to check whole range and create a decent XR-strategy for the flop or to bomb later streets polarized if it is checked through.
But these MW-spots are a world of its own.
Even though players are heavilly capped here, equities over all parties will run a lot closer than in HU scenarios.
I would also try to simplify strategies as much as possible. So if we choose 2 sizings OTF here, we have to be aware that we not only need a plan on several turns/rivers for several regions of our range. We also need to take into account that we will be playing vs different numbers of opponents on later streets (this number often will be somehow connected to the chosen flopsizing). Soooooo....splitting our range into several sizings here, makes the gametree super complex on later streets.
So i would say that simplifying this spot is even more important than in HU-spots
Sept. 23, 2021 | 7:19 a.m.
Ppl are mostly not able to create decent XC/XR/XF ranges for this spot: ie: Thy cbet too much and so their checking range becomes super weak.
So i just bet my whole range here for 1/3 with the intention to split it OTT into a check back or overbet.....
Sept. 13, 2021 | 10:34 a.m.
Maybe we will XR more bluffs on KQ2? Might go for more of a Xcall with thoue A4/A5 combos on K32 due to SDV, while we are more incentiviced to XR weaker draws without SDV on KQ2:
We will be waking up with more T9o/JTo stuff here that cant really XC and we might balance this out by expanding our valuerange
Sept. 10, 2021 | 5:14 p.m.
I guess the region of KJ/KT that is missing in the shoving range will be the heart-combos, right?
So we block a somewhat decent amount of SDV in villains range (as we block Kh), so we have an incentive to bluffcatch the river as villain will have a bluff at a slightly higher probability…
This sheme will occur often in spots like this: solvers dislike bluffing missed FD here and will check them OTR.
So if we block this region of SDV (strong FD that can win vs weaker draws by checking down) we are incentivesed to bluffcatch a bit whider (ie: blockers to a FD that bricked out are good candidates to bluffcatch).
However: this means we have to face an opponent that will play like this.
If players are simply trippeling off any FD in this spot, obv this concept disappears…
Sept. 10, 2021 | 11:28 a.m.
Its because a lot of AhXh or KhXh will be barreling the turn and check back river i guess. So as a rule of thumb:
Hands that block a bricked flushdraw (these draws will be checked OTT on some frequency as well) are usually good combos to bluffcatch (theorywise) as they unblock bluffing hands (like other KJ/AJ-combos for example). solvers hate bluffing FD-combos OTR in general (because vise versa they block the folding range)
Sept. 9, 2021 | 10:59 a.m.
Preflop and XR sizng look good to me (could go slightly bigger maybe).
I dont think that the 6d is that important. There is basically no real combo that 3bets this position and contains the 6d.
But i think i prefer flatting the 3 bet OTF.
A flop 3bet usually indicates a very polarized range, esp as we wont XR merged in this spot i assume.
So if villain reps basically nuts (2p/sets/monaterdraws) or air.
So our blockers to the nutregion become important: there is 1 combo of 67s and 3 of a lower set and maybe 2 straightflushdraws (pair+NFD is blocked).
So our blockers dictate a super small valuerange in Villains shoes what makes the probability of pure air(or 77)a lot higher.
So i prefer flatting the 3bet and playing cautiously on diamonds or cards that improve mostly Gutshots as these are good candidates for 3bet-bluffing the flop.
On blank runouts im still looking to get this in, which should not be too much of a problem given the spr.
Aug. 4, 2021 | 3:24 p.m.
Congrats to everyone. Nice run in the last 1-2 weeks for you TheCheddarman1
Aug. 3, 2021 | 1:58 p.m.
Don't we just really smash both boards anyways in a SRP? And I guess if BBs overall range adds more Equity OTT (2nd-board) usually solvers are sizing down, right?
So my reasoning would be more like this:
The first board smashes our range, but Villain has nutty hands OTT that beat a lot of our flopped/turned monsters. So we still have an advantage in strong TP/2p/sets while Villain hits a decent amount of KT/QT/J9 and still some AJ. So we still have a huge rangeadvantage (high frequency bet), but the Nutadvantage doesn't really shift in anyones favor (so a lower sizing as something like KQ/KT doesn't really want to go for stacks here).
The second board smashes our range OTT as well: we still have a huge rangeadvantage (high frequency bet) as we have all flopped (suited) 2p/sets but add a decent amount of sets and TP2P as well that are not part of Villains range. So the nut advantage will even be stronger for Hero (=bigger sizing) because we still have 100% of sets and Villain only 55/22.
Aug. 3, 2021 | 1:56 p.m.
I guess im just jamming this here myself as well. This board interacts somewhat good with your 4bet-bluffing-range (like KQ/QTs).
Given these positions I don't see too much merit in keeping the range whide as it should already be quite narrow.
So there is still some TT/QQ/KK here that can call your shove OTT, but might fold on certain rivers.
Aug. 3, 2021 | 1:45 p.m.
I lean towards checking flop tbh. We are on a huge rangedisadvantage here. Keep in kind that we will 3bet more offsuit combos pre than villain is going to defend. So we are also on a disadvantage when it comes to flushes. So i would play XR flop or turn usually.
As played: i guess if we play our pure NF-blocker like this in combination with like 77/99 and flushes, your line seems fine to me. Still some weaker FD that could decide to take this line and call off or even better: AxQh could raise fold here.
Given the price calling seems also fine to me.