you mean 4bet defend?
So wizard 3betting indeed A3s on a decent frequency SB vs BU but then pure fold vs 4bet from BU at 200BBs
Was kind of surprised as well, but I guess A3s simply performs poorly vs a nutty linear range in this solve. This should be especially a problem in real life.
But what do you think about for an exploitive flat vs RFI?
May 6, 2022 | 10:03 a.m.
Not a huge fan of the 5bet pre tbh…i guess we could simply call the 4bet as well or even considering a straight flat pre with this combo?
In practice ppl will 4bet pre mostly for straight linear value this deep ip i guess. So folding vs 4bet also seems valid.
As played: your line is pretty nuts and so i guess cbetting flop is fine. As you said, some QQ/JJ/AQ/A5s stuff that will fold here…i doubt a fold from AK after flatting a 5bet
May 5, 2022 | 4:25 a.m.
This is a good and correct thought. For that reason we will have to mix this up with a lot of our range. So we wont always XR here.
We will be on a heavy rangedisadvantage here, because we dont have any 2p in our range and 77 might also be a low freq 3bet pre.
So indeed BU will attack our range OTT with overbets often.
So theorywise we will be forced to do some marginal calls OTT vs huge sizings.
But i doubt that on lower stakes players will find the correct amount of bluffs in the overbetting turn node.
So i would say that overfolding turns after XC is still the way to go on a lot of turns vs bigger sizings. This is indeed very exploitable.
May 1, 2022 | 5:52 a.m.
About your first point:
I guess this is a bias of rangeprojection. Take a look at a BB vs BU flatting range and count the combos that hit 2nd pair+ on AKx vs JTx and you will see that we simply hit a lot less pairs to the board already on the last one.
But we also lack a lot of other high equity draws.
About your 2nd post:
Its totally fine to slow down turns. We dont have any real reason to bet as our deny of equity comes from folding out random 2 cards that Cbet and fold OTF.
So villains range that continues will be a lot stronger obv.
So a high frequency check is solid as we cant bet for value anymore and esp on broadway cards also equity denial isnt much of a thing anymore.
So our A4 immediately gets a pure bluffcatcher that will be mixing XC and XF in theory already.
So if we assume that ppl cbet too much and fold too much vs XR, then simply XF turn looks fine to me in a lot of scenarios.
April 30, 2022 | 7:15 p.m.
What about throwing mathematics and GTO out if the window and recheck your own success?
If you already have some volume and HM, you could filter for this spot (Hero calls 3bet pre ip/oop).
Look at the hands that are winning for sure and seem to bee loosing.
Cut out the last category and look for hands that are on the edge.
Start studying this category of hands and look out for mistakes and problems.
Play and elaborate this category on a decent volume. Start experimenting with hands.
If you work out Ranges like this, you can take your own skill level and pool exploits into account.
April 30, 2022 | 9:05 a.m.
If you are willing to invest some money into software, i would recommend GTO-wizard as well.
For the premiumversion you will be able to study most spots and stackdepths.
But this tool is fairly expensive with something like 69$/month (even though its worth it!)
But second +1 is on GTO+
If you have a decent PC and time, you can already gain a lot of knowledge for about 100$ for a lifetime license with this!
April 29, 2022 | 1:46 p.m.
Its tricky to estimate these CC-ranges in real life. Eps at NL5 without further info this could be totally random (as like the chosen line postflop).
Theorywise this CC should be pretty condensed. Something like 66-TT, KTs-KQs, some KQo and stuff like ATs-AQs and maybe even some KJo/KQ. Only a super small fraction (if at all) of SCs and A2s-A5s.
So in my 2cents would be:
1) villain could have 2 combos of sets.
2) villain could have top2 OTT
3) Villain rarely has A2s/A5s
4) QJs/AJs/AQs will be moatly 3bets pre (and could be bluffraises OTT)
5) nl5 pools underbluff every street
6) Overbets are underbluffed in general as well.
To sum this up: this looks like an easy fold OTR and exploitevly this might already be a fold OTT.
Dont worry about beeing bluffed at this Limit.
Herocalls from your pov is not where the money will come from!
April 29, 2022 | 1:42 p.m.
Its due to the fairly polar 3betting range in BB.
So basically KJs/AJs/JJ/TT/JTs/KQs/89s/weak Ax-suited are all pure or high frequency 3bets from the BB.
So if BB lacks these hands completely BU nuts- and rangeadvantage are so huge that frequency AND sizings for the whole range moves up a lot (which is kind of a rare coincidence).
On the other hand BB will defend a lot of Ax combos by flatting. So bare A-high boards are a lot worse for the BU vs BB scenario.
Thats the reason why you will see a lot of checks for BU on various Axx boards or a choose of small sizings.
This will still be true on AKx, but due to the lack of BB to hit strong 2p or sets, these boards will also be bet on a higher frequency and a bigger sizing.
But usually more like 60%-100% pot rather than crazy like 250% stuff going on at JTx simply because BB still has a lot of Ax-combos.
April 27, 2022 | 6:15 p.m.
This looks good to me.
In general we got to keep in mind that 44 is mixed here pre and post. So as long as you dont always/never call pre and dont always/never start bluffing every small PP, you will have a good mix i guess.
So these small pairs are good candidates to simply check down from the flop on as they have indeed some SDV or they make up for a good triple barrel bluffs on a save runout.
This is mainly due to their good unblocking effect of Villains XC/XC/XF range.
So interestingly 44 is a much better candidate for this move in this spot than 9T or QT for instance as hands like 99//TT/89s could be part of a range that folds to 3 barrels.
Just dont make the mistake to randomly bet flop and/or turn and then give up without a clue OTR!
April 27, 2022 | 2:51 p.m.
Flatting AK vs most positions beein IP should be a good exploit vs a pool that could be 3betting not enough.
But there is also a good theoretical reason to flat AK more often esp. vs BB.
In theory the BB gets 3bet more polar vs all positions and the correct answer vs this strategy is to 4bet more polar.
In this scenario AK becomes more of a call because BB will jam or fold more often vs your 4bet and AK has no incentive for this.
April 26, 2022 | 11:07 a.m.
General rule of thumb for deepplay is to 3bet less oop, because positional advantage skyrockets if playing 500BBs deep.
And if we decide to 3bet my guess is that it needs to be a lot bigger, like 6x or even more maybe?
But we usually want to go even more polar this deep from the BB, so still i guess flatting is superior.
So i would say this should be basically a pure call pre.
As played: Flop and turn seem standard.
OTR our hand will be fairly indifferent between call and fold. So any small read on villain or your pool could make this a call or fold.
In general i tend to fold here as the T adds a tiny bit of SDV to villains bluffingrange and so the probability of a bluff could go down.
But a good player should be aware that a bare T is worth about nothing here and could still pull the trigger.
But overfolding is rarely a mistake
April 26, 2022 | 10:50 a.m.
Cant highlight an important concept that Warrior mentioned here enough:
We can not protect versus strong draws.
That is the main reason why monotone boards are mostly played pretty passively and with small sizings already HU.
The only handclass that is theoretically incentivized to play huge bets is Nutflushes or nutflushblockers. Not enough to create a range for that sizing.
This will be even more a thing 3way where to probability of players already having a flush (as their colldcallingrange pre should most be suited hands) is even higher beside that fact that there is 6 cards in play rather than 4.
So equities will be a lot more distributed between all parties.
April 26, 2022 | 10:17 a.m.
Need to add here that you picked a very special board for your example. These JTx boars especially two tone are a nightmare for a condensed range like in the scenario (BU vs BB) you described.
Thats the reason why solvers love to bomb this board with huge bets as BB doesn't even lack in Nutsadvantage only but also huge in range advantage as BB basically shouldn't have nothing in his preflop-callingrange that interacts well with this structure.
Some crazy stuff going on here in solver land :)
April 26, 2022 | 10:08 a.m.
I think we should heavily take positions into account here.
Ranges are super whide that
a) 34s goes up in value as a checkback
b) Hero should have a decent amount of bluffing combos available. So we might be over bluffing easily here if we start to use 34s as well.
Warrior made a good point as well about stats too look at here and I agree that
c) FE equity might be low OTR anyways
April 26, 2022 | 9:48 a.m.
The difference is that A9 is blocking 99 and A3ss basically. So this combo makes a much better call than an overpair. But stil: There is no need to make herocalls like this at this limit as ppl are bluffing far less than optimal in most (maybe every) spot.
Feb. 5, 2022 | 6:41 p.m.
thanks for this great chart to visualize this. Pokercrunchr already told me to be a donkey as i trIed to add a 7th QQ+ lol.
Still one piece of info missing to me:
Why is the difference of equity between QQ and KK in this scenario not evolving linear? Any idea?
Dec. 20, 2021 | 1:54 p.m.
does our software really work this way? Flopzilla should weigh the probability of holding a specific combo over several 100k of occasions. So the short answer should be: yes I think....Even 100 players would be able to hold QQ in this scenario in a small fraction of probability.
But the amount of AK will be fairly different in relation to us holding QQ or KK.
So if we have QQ, there is 16 combos of AK left+QQ+ (17 Combos).
But if we hold KK, there will only be 8 combos of AK but still 17 combos of QQ+
This was my starting point: If we hold KK ourselves the relative amount of AK in Villains range will be a lot less and this means the probability of running into AA will be higher as if we would be holding QQ.
And in MW scenarios this theory seems to be correct....
Dec. 20, 2021 | 10 a.m.
Interesting, checked the 6way scenario just yet...So let me sum this up:
- The more players are involved with nutty ranges, the higher the probabillity that one player has AA and so the blocking effects of other players having AK is pretty bad for KK.
So my inital thesis that in this case we prefer gii with QQ over KK seems to be correct!?
I still dont really understand why this doesnt work linear: So...
4way AI: KK and QQ nearly same Equity
5way AI: KK is about 2% ahead
6way AI: QQ is nearly 10% ahead
However: In my mind there is always the golden rule to simply never fold KK pre for 100BB.
But my conclusion here so far would be that this is simply not correct. So we could sum up: If we face the rare spot of 3 players beeing AI with nutty ranges pre, we simply fold KK, right?
Dec. 19, 2021 | 10:20 a.m.
today i have a theoretical question that came up while studyying a somewhat standard spot. Baseline was kind of a dumb question i asked myself after a discussion in a Discors-group:
If we face an All-in pre (100B) vs strong ranges, could there be a situation where QQ has more equity than KK? I asked this myself due to the blocking effect of KK to AK (So villains range becomes stronger in relation to KK than QQ).
So what did i do? I chekced the equities of QQ/KK vs strong ranges in MW-scenarios: vs QQ+/AK execlusively.
Spoiler alert: My question was dumb as KK will always be superior to QQ.
But i made an observation in this studying that i cant explain to myself:
So i checked the equities in 3way to 5 way scenarios and as mentioned: KK will always outperform QQ in total.
But there is a signifcant difference related to the number of players involved that i cant eyplain to myself.
So usually the equity-advantage of KK vs QQ (vs QQ+/AK) will be around 2-7%.
But if QQ is facing an AI vs 3 other ranges that are structured like this, the difference of KK and QQ in equity will only be around 0.1%. This is decently different from getting QQ in a 3way or 5 way scenario.
Does anyone have an idea why this could be the case? It sounds somewhat illogical to me.
I checked this with pokercrunchr and flopzilla.
Dec. 18, 2021 | 8:54 p.m.
Fairly important concept that Robbiish is picking up here:
In a spot that we feel like bluffcatching, all our bluffcatchers become 100% calls if we are able to identify worse hands that bet/raise for value.
So this will be a 100% call even with the Kd, because we aint „bluffcatching“ anymore as we catch weaker value as well.
Nov. 24, 2021 | 3:58 p.m.
Im running slightly above 5BB/100 lifetime with the mentioned stats.
I guess BB play is complex topic to really give concrete advice...
Maybe check some ressources about defendingranges (esp. vs SB and BU) and creating polar 3betting ranges.
My guess would be that most micro-/smallstakes players will play too tight in the BB. A winrate of -50BB/100 and worse will be the logical consequence....
Nov. 20, 2021 | 10:08 a.m.
This is why we love it, right HawksWin
Some hands to think about:
KJo/KQo are trouble hands vs MP/EP...So these are folds 100% to me
KJo vs CO still close i guess, but too tight of a fold (wizard is already folding KJo a small amount vs CO)
SCs below T9s are completely out for me even vs BU.
A6s-A9s are also only a mix to me vs CO
Im usually folding 22-66 vs CO and 22-55 vs BU (in regards to wizard this is already somewhat loose).
And about steals vs BB:
Beside the fact that they are already overfolding preflop, i guess they (myself included) do a real poor job of adapting to whide ranges.
Its a tough work for the brain to handle super whide ranges when we are usually used to play most spots with pretty narrow ones.
Nov. 18, 2021 | 4:07 p.m.
Intersting though….as i am pretty sure that you are a better player than me, this is a good question.
My first idea would already be predlopranges (as said: i doubt that it is due to beeing weaker postflop).
Im playing a mix of pretty tight/linear 3bet vs LP and a somewhat loose steal vs BB.
Mostly a pool-exploit that defends pre whide vs 3bets and is also capable of floating and still gives away their BB preflop to a SB-steal
Nov. 18, 2021 | 3:27 p.m.
No concrete data on specific players to back this up...
But your stats seem to be decent to me...
So loosing less than 20BB/100 in SB and loosing less than 60BB/100 from BB is somewhat solid.
My winrates look kind of similar to yours: around -11 from SB and -46 from BB