RaoulFlush

Its hard to really narrow down a range that flats MP twice here pre.
So my brain instantly categorizes a fishy player (which might be true mostly but not always).
So I would add a decent chunk of randomness to his range and wouldn't give up flop already.
I guess the difference between small bet or XC is marginal, but XF looks too tight to me vs this player profile....

This looks fine overall to me.
Could make an argument for betting turn slightly bigger (we bet a bit more polar here), but im sure sizings are fairly mixed anyways here.
The Q OTR hits a lot of villains turn bluffing range.
So a decent part of his range is now nutty (JT) or has decent SDV (QT/QJ).
So we are forced to XF more here.
2 sidenotes:

check back flop and raise turn is under bluffed.
Potsizebets are also slightly under bluffed.

So XF river looks good to me.

Im also in the camp folding to the raise. But I would also not be betting the flop. Over several players the equities start to even out a bit over all parties: ie: a hand like TPTK is much weaker than playing HU.
The rule of thumb: don't bloat a pot that you are going to loose more often (which is the logical consequence of MW-pots). So the threshold for valuebets will drop drastically and this hand class will be somewhat on the edge (probably a mix I guess).
For the most part raises are also much more polar (which usually means stronger) and so TPTK will have real trouble to defend properly.
So I would be checking my whole range in this spot as a simplification.
IMO this will simplify your life a whole lot...

Damn…that cliffhanger with 88 at the end :d
Nice video…would be nice to some liveplay from you in the future as well!

closing my eyes and clicking call, otherwise we can't call the OB OTT....

Its a meh spot, but im calling this for several reasons:

1. UTG starts with a weird stack size pre, so probably a rec
2. His line is not really consistent. So theory wise Villain should have a decently protected checking range OTF (OP/2p/sets/FD...) But most players do a poor job of constructing a range like that. Ie: Check back ranges from weaker players tend to be weaker because they mostly bet their strong hands/hands with high Equity (like FD) too much.
3. Kind of the same of #2 applies to raising ranges OTT which is basically a coincidence.
4. The price is fairly good.
5. We block boats

So sure: Villain is repping a checked back FD or turned set (rivered quads) pretty good and I wouldn't be shocked to see a better hand on a decent frequency here, but given the price and the potential randomness of a red, im never folding here (this would be a complete different story vs a reg btw.)

iohenkies
Maybe I wasn't clear enough: Wizard is raising all combos of AQo here either OTF or OTT beside the AcQx hands.
So these are the only combos that the solver gets to the river with and still calls it off...
However: There is something you need to be aware of when it comes to solver-solutions: In basically every spot solvers check the river with a missed NFD.
So theory wise blocking the NFD makes a combo a better call down than the other ones.
This will indeed be different in real life where players still tend to triple off strong FD often in most pools.
But even if we would arrive in your spot with more combos, im sure wizard will prefer hero calling the river with the Ac

forbaron
So i ran this spot through wizard. The GTO solution likes raising flop or turn if we dont hold the Ac ourselves.
Im not entirely sure if this is useful at 5nl tbh:
I expect SB still to be 3bet too low: so villain has a stronger range.
But also: i expect most pools to cbet way too much at least OTF while they might cbet turn too low (which is logical as they arrive here with too weak of a range).
So maybe raising flop is cool, turn maybe not.
However: if we get to the river AcQx is always calling off…

forbaron
This is a tough one with 2c…The Qc in this case doesnt block flushes much as all FD containing a Q (and that we beat) wont bet the turn for this sizing i guess: KsQs could be the only combo that we block and that might bet the turn though.
Theorywise i still expect this to be call, but i could imagine that overfolding this spot at 5nl is the way to go…close either way

forbaron
This changes things quite a bit: Don't forget that the amount of AK-combos (16) is a huge portion of the range I described.
So if it is possible that Ak triples off as a bluff and villain lacks of JTs/QTs (or the potential TT sometimes), this becomes much more of a call....

This is the classic example of an massive range disadvantage and what it means for our decisions.
Villain should theory wise raise a linear range here Preflop that will retain its range- and nutsadvantage through the whole runout:
Villain has pure: JJ-AA/Ak/QJs (I don't expect TT to barrel turn usually) while we lack most of these pure .
So arriving at the river (which is played fine imo) we are basically crushed by villains range by default.
So I guess we will have to fold even if we face a villain that is able to find bluffs here. Sure: We beat some AcXc combos (which btw. shouldn't be bluffed in theory I guess) and from time to time villain might barrel off some K8s/KTs or so.
But the reality is: We are beat too often here to call....

So I ran this spot in Wizard for you and the anwser is quite simple. If we decide to utilize on our flush blocker, we simply jam every river that is an overcard and start mixing give ups 50/50 if the board pairs.
So to simplify this: jam it and hope for the best all the time at nl10....

Looks like you overbluff easily here. You also need to take positions way more into account imo. Villain has already a really strong range calling pre.
So my 2 cents:
Flop is a low frequency cbet with the Qc and sizing looks good.
Turn is a good card for the blocking properties of your concrete hand and so betting is fine.
But dont fall into the trap to rely on an A river here. Indeed its a bad card for you:
If villain is somehow floating the turn it will be the Ac.
We also dont really have Ax combos that go for 3 streets of value here (beside the NF).
So the blocking effects of your hand get indeed devalued by the A otr…but as played: im still going for it i guess… but i expect to get called more often now…

Im checking this back allday/everyday vs unknown at 10nl…you already ask the correct question: whats the relation between hands that call and we beat vs the ones that we are beat against….

Hey hey…
I guess im sizing up preflop like 1-2BB.
This flop is really bad for your range. Wouldnt be suprised if solver bets here sometimes for your sizing, but im basically checking my whole range on this board.
If villain is a regular, i expect him not to call too many offsuit hands pre with another player to act.
Defending in MP also narrows his range down quite a bit.
So at all flop and turn is fine i guess. But imo your hand is somewhat face up.
So would a regular bluff a range full of overpairs for 1/2 OTR? I doubt it a bit tbh. Villain has sets/straights and flushes on a decent frequency in his range and so this looks like a fold to me even with the Qd…

I guess its a decent explo-fold tbh…chapeau for beeing disciplined enough for that.

I really enjoyed this format as it encouraged me to overthink my own thought process more and concentrate more on my concrete own wording of thoughts.
Its pretty cool to get a feedback on this from a coach!

Imo you already solved the riddle…75%PSB would be my sizing choice OTR as well.
Im bluffing this 100% of the time in these positions.

Hey and welcome back to the tables!
Stackoff seems fine to me. I expect a shoving range for this spot at NL16 at least QQ+/AK which we close to perfect match the needed potodds of 40%.
So adding JJ or a bluffed A5s and this is making good money already.
Imo the line you took is optimal

Would this mean that autopiloting multitables means less WR and less standard deviation? HawksWin

I like your turn sizing and would even consider betting less. Monoboards are usually played more passive and with smaller sizings...So I guess my choice would be 1/2 OTT

This looks like a clear jam to me...
Keep in mind that Villain arrives with a fairly strong range OTR. So what hands exactly do you expect villain to bluff the river with?
So villain will wake up with some boats here and (just because he is loose) with some more mediocre flushes: JhJx/QhQx/KxQh/AxQ hand so on...
I also doubt that villain will turn 77-99 or random Tx into a bluff often.
As we loose our stack to boats anyways, I don't want Villain to check back any mediocre flush that might be able to call a jam

Ugly spot indeed....I would throw MDA and GTO a bit out of the window OTR...
Flop and turn look standard to me.
So I guess this will be mostly a call in theory OTR for the good price. But I might still be folding anyways.
My reasoning is that most players tend to construct the relation between sizing and the value to bluff ratio backwards.
In theory Villain is supposed to bluff on a decent frequency for this sizing as their bluffs doesn't need to work too often to be profitable. In this case they can btw also go for somewhat thin value....
The reality is: Players rarely bluff this sizing as they expect to get called fairly often (which could indeed be true).
So I guess as an exploit im letting this 1 go OTR....

Not sure if i get your question right, but the BR requirements will be the same for every amount of tables.
But for sure you would need to modify the estimated WR downwards a bit….i dont have a strong opinion on this, but i expect the to be even .5 to 1BB if we move over 4 tables….still worth it maybe if we double or more of the hands/h

I would still take a closer look for some more hands. We need some postflop-info if we want to drastically deviate from our strategy as mistakes here can be quite expensive.
Keep in mind that if he is loose he is able to hit a decent amount of 2p on this rainbow board.
So given the amount of info so far, your line is fine imo.
If we get a grasp that villain is raising flops too liberally, i would start to 3bet my strong TP and OP with the intention of gii quickly….

This hand looks wp to me.
What hands exactly do you expect to bluff here? Blocking weak/mediocre FD with the Tc cuts out a decent amount of possible bluffcombos.
The K is great for your range and it still contains the NFD (ie a straight OTR).
So also not a spot i expect to get bluffed often anyways.
So folding river looks fine to me…

I would try to categorize flops in a certain way: like AML, AHH...and so on. Try to work out a system that is not too complex (Maybe like 6-8 or so)

So from here we simplify further. I would advice you to only play 1 sizing OTF and OTT and only split on the river.
Keep in mind that losing EV by failing to execute an GTO-strategy is usually much more than we loose by simplifying and playing it well!
So now I would check all my categorized hands at the GTOW flop-report:
What is the average betting frequency and most predominantly chosen sizing?
Rule of thumb to me: Is checking above 85% im checking my whole range. Is it lower than 30% im usually betting my whole range for 1/3 regardless of the position.
For all % in between look at the most common sizing and make it pure (or check).

So for your example: HML BvB I know that wizard prefers the big sizing OTF. So in this case I play an Obervbet or check strategy OTF.
The same stuff is possible for the turn (If you have premium I guess).
So I might check the turn report on which cards (AHML) the betting frequency is high and low and which is the predominant sizing and simplify to one sizing only per turn again....

So I only think about various sizing OTR. Its a bit of work but it adds a good visibility on Range vs Range interaction and brings some more easy-game back into the solver world....

Yeah…my question was more about the hand choice rather than sizing. 4-5x in this spot would be standard

Agree: Hero has Ax or better always here and villain knows this.
As spades and 42 also completes OTR its even hard to name any bluffs in their range.

Your thoughts are on point imo…flop is thin and if we want to bet, we need to go bigger already.
But if we decide to bet, turn and river bluff are mandatory and sizings look good to me