Despite that donking is not quite typical on this board, it is quite typical to start polarizing the betting range on later streets, ie sizing up.
This is especially typical on blank turns that dont change the nuts or offer new draws.
Our bluffs want more FE while our strong hands want to get money into the pot.
So this could still be a TP+ or a draw but will be much less often 56 or 78 i would assume.
May 8, 2021 | 7:45 p.m.
Not to forget that we have a tiny bit of SDV vs missed draws in general that could shut down OTR
May 8, 2021 | 5:22 p.m.
I guess beside the implied odds, we have reasonable direct pot odds if our 2 overs are live. Depends obv on the chosen sizing OTT.
Tariq did a pool-analysis of his 100 Pool some months ago with the outcome, that Donkbets are centered a lot around TP.
So i guess calling vs this sizing OTF sounds good.
May 8, 2021 | 4:05 p.m.
Looks reasonable to me. It works in your favor that the Kh is not on board; so KThh/KJhh and AKhh might still be in your range. XC with JThh might also be an option as we would hate to get raised OTF.
Even though it is doubtful that villain folds 2p very often, but who knows.
As we need some bluffcombos for this line in our range TT with a heart seems solid.
But quite unsure about the Ts tbh. I guess having it for the bluff is good as well:
We block part of the delayed bluffing-range i would say. So maybe shoving with Ts and deciding between call and fold without it?
Mostly folding i guess....
May 8, 2021 | 12:42 p.m.
Yeah....i guess im cbetting this as we should have slight rangeadvantage. But as both ranges are kind of narrow checking range here is totally fine as well.
But i guess checking turn after checking flop would not be my favorite as i expect too much SDV in villains range (TT/JJ/AK) that might call a bet, but wont bet itself.
May 8, 2021 | 9:49 a.m.
Nice argumentation for a bigger sizing OTF. Makes totally sense.
But imo AJ is far off beeing a mediocre hand in this spot.
Sure: villain might play a decent amount of stronger hands this way. But SB is still a pretty whide openingrange that includes tons of weak Ax/Kx and some 5x and so on that might switch to check/call here.
So i would assume that AJ could make it into a b/b/b line if the run-out allows it
May 7, 2021 | 4:34 p.m.
I doubt that i could fold here. What do we think connects with this flop and checks it back to then raise the turn?
We block AQs heavilly, unfortunately AcXc as well.
Do we expect 99/KQs/QJs to check back the flop and then raise the turn? Kind of unlikely to me.
So basically villain repps 44 to me.
Theorywise villains is supposed to raise a small bet, too.
So im too stationy to find a fold OTT....
Blocking the NFD would want me to mostly call (instead of jamming which still is an option).
May 7, 2021 | 4:27 p.m.
So you mean 4bet% or 4bet-range?
You are totally right that it should be above 5.
More of a subjective observation that players with a 4-bet-range-stat bigger than 5 are kind of rare. I guess somewhere between 5 and 7 sounds good.
May 6, 2021 | 8:24 p.m.
This is a quote from the HEM-Forums which explains the difference pretty well:
„ Four bet is: Player must open the betting action then be the one to 4-bet.
Four bet range is: Total PFR multiplied by Total 4bet %
The difference in 4bet % can happen if he plays a lot more hands in position.
For example if he always calls a 3bet in position with JJ/QQ/AK, whereas you are much more inclined to 4bet those hands.“
So basically it is what you thought.
May 6, 2021 | 8:01 a.m.
Not quite sure if i get your question right.
1) But the good news is that both are indeed identical stats. But both should discount CC from a third player (if that what was you meant). As long as we dont limp, we will be the only player able to raise a 2bet without beeing the one who 4bets. Hopefully this makes sense :D
2) so the numbers you took as a guideline are still somewhat reasonable for HM3 as well.
But i would recommend using positional 3bets%.
About the 4bet stat, you might check out the 4bet-range stat that is already included in the standard preflop popup-window as it is more precise and exactly related to the% that you find in a range grid. Something around 3-4% is standard. Above 5 is already quite 4bet-heavy. But you will recognize that these stats are rare to find: ie that 4bets are usually pretty nutted in uNL.
May 6, 2021 | 5:30 a.m.
Suprising a bit. My theory would be as follows.
1. We have an advantage of Tx in our range.
2.villains range consists a lot of weak A-high and Broadways
3. Villain has a decent amount of underpairs and basically 0 overpairs (some rare JJ)
So i would assume that rangeadvantage and kind of nutadvantage (we lack 44 completely) is on BB side.
This will be different on higher (JJx/QQx) or lower (below 88x) paired boards!
But BU will have a lot of stuff that has to float due to weak SDV or strong backdoor potential and our range wants to apply pressure to this range by setting a bad price.
May 4, 2021 | 7:12 a.m.
Congrats to you guys and thanks for your support up in here.
May 3, 2021 | 7:45 p.m.
To bet a polarized range usually means to bet your best and kind of the worst hands and nothing in between.
In this scenario we usually bet bigger as our strong hands want to maximize winnings, while our weakest hands wants villain to fold.
The opposite would be a merged range, where we tend to bet our mediocre hands as well. In this case we usually bet smaller as we want villain to still call of with weaker hands.
May 3, 2021 | 3:45 p.m.
The main reason why i would stick to a3bet or fold strategy for every position beside BB (and maaaaaybe BU) is the rake.
As you dont pay rake if you take the pot down preflop, you should try to win as much pots preflop as possible.
This hasa pretty significant impact on your winrate at the micros.
It also simplifys your strategy as it counts your decision-tree down from 3 options (fold/call/3bet) to two (fold or 3bet)
May 3, 2021 | 2:47 p.m.
Interesting spot for sure and i feel pretty unsure here....
First of all: I would not 4bet this hand deep. It might be fine on a low frequency playing 100BBs, but i prefer calling this deep.
Flop/Turn seems standard.
Villains range should still be kind of whide (for a 4betpot) as we should be floated here a ton. So my 2cents would be:
1. Villain has bluffs in his range.
2. Villain could be waking up with AA here
3. Blockers for herocalling are great: blocking 7x and unblocking like J/Q-high-hearts or SC backdoor-floats that are obligated to bluff this spot.
4. Most players are scared to pull the trigger this deep OTR as your range is still pretty strong here.
5. Overbets are somewhat underbluffed
So i lean towards folding, but if we are looking for a combo that can herocall, this one would be a good choice imo
May 3, 2021 | 1:22 p.m.
What do you mean by „do not resteal“?
This is a clear 3bet pre.
Dry boards usually favor the player with a polarized range (ie. the 3bettor in this case).
But this flop is kind of semidry, so i would bet selective and bigger and choose KJ for bettting dor the reasons mentioned above.
The main reason to switch into a passive mode OTT/OTR is mainly a switch of range-
advantage: villain should have more 9x in his calling range than hero in his flop-cbetting-range.
River is close and more of a pool-exploit to fold. Theorywise this would still be a call most of the time.
May 3, 2021 | 10:33 a.m.
Im leaning towards a fold tbh. We unblock A highs, so the amount of hands that could check for SDV is a bit more and we unblock straights.
Given the positions i expect all sets and strong TP to be in villains range OTF and OTT.
We also block a decent amount of backdoor floats with our hand.
Not sure what to make of this timing, but i guess arguments for folding would be enough for me.
May 3, 2021 | 10:18 a.m.
What is your sample size for this? AF 20 OTR regardless of position sounds like basically impossible to me over deep sample :o
Hard to give a general heuristic about river betting.
But using blockbets OTR to only avoid bluffs is not a great apporach. This should be also kind of a thin valuebet.
So always ask yourself before blocking rivers: is there any worse hand that mine that is able to call this bet? If not, it is a not a spot for blocking.
Maybe this can already help your frequencies a little bit.
May 3, 2021 | 10:14 a.m.
This looks fine mostly i guess.
XR a hand with this much equity OTF is rarely a mistake and given the positions, we will still wake up here with K7s and J7s as well. So the rangeadvantage is not as huge as it seems.
Turn seems standard (given the small SPR we could also just jam here).
Leading river looks interesting. I usually dont lead flushing rivers oop as it cuts down bluffing opportunities for villain.
But i guess in this specific spot and on the Ad it makes sense.
Villain should not be bluffing too much anymore as the hand he repped OTT is not in his range anymore while our Q/j-high flushes increase their value.
So i like it in this specific spot somehow.
May 2, 2021 | 6:01 a.m.
The straight blocker is great. But we also block a decent amount of 2 pairs.
So if we are going to herocall this spot, this would be oke of my prime-candidates.
Even though i would prefer to not hold a spade tbh.
But i prefer heroing JT here more than heroing with KK for instance.
Kk dont block any pair/straight and unblock A high combos that could eventually check down with SDV.
May 2, 2021 | 5:39 a.m.
Without further info this looks like a 0 EV call to me. Got to keep in mind that we are playing vs the loosest of all 3bet defends ranges. So i expect some more marginal floats to arrive to this river.
So tbh i dont mind calling or folding here.
Pro call: blocking 2p and unblocking FD.
Against a call: unblocking straights mainly.
So we could explo fold vs an underbluffing pool or we could make a (theorey) call here.
Might just hit the RNG and dont look back might also be a reasonable option.
May 2, 2021 | 5:34 a.m.
Might you elaborate this one maybe?
Shouldnt it be straight the other way arround that we only bet polarized in this spot?
So mainly checking or betting big? Wizard seems to mix in some smaller bet with Jx but mainly plays 3/4 or check with most of the range.
May 1, 2021 | 5:53 p.m.
Summed up well from hawks here. Another user asked a similar question recently. You could read my comment here:
But this is kind of a complicated topic. One of the most important thing that we should also take to postflop-play is the importance of drawing to the (near)nuts:
So we would rather stick to passive approach with dominated straight- and flushdraws.
We should be carefull with bloating the pot with non Top2 or non-Topsets (especially on drawheavy boards) as coolers get much more expensive beeing deep.
Visa vi we can apply more pressure with strong draws ourselves by overbetting heavilly.
May 1, 2021 | 11 a.m.
I would be calling as well. Mainly because how i would perceive your line from Villains PoV:
Flop: Leads are pretty TP heavy. So i expect a lot of TP, some 9x/FD and super rare straights sets or 2p in your range.
Turn: Your overbet is consistent with stronger TP/2p/set/straight, 9x and FD
River: Your check discounts Flushes mostly i would say. What leaves your range with a lot of TP, some 2p and rarely sets or straights.
So if i would be Villain: Every set/Top2 and also every straight becomes a clear valuebet OTR.
One important concept i took away from a recent video is, that if we are in a situation that feels like bluffcatching but we are able to find hands in Villains range that Valuebet and are worse than ours, we are not bluffcatching anymore.
So every hand that felt like a bluffcatcher becomes a clear call and this is the case here i would say.
May 1, 2021 | 9:54 a.m.
Hey mate and welcome to the forums.
Interesting spot that you posted.
I would usually 3bet a little bigger pre when beeing oop. So i would usually go to 10BB. This flop interacts somewhat good with the range from BU and and so we will be checking here quite often. But i agree with HawksWin that this KJ will be more often a bet.
We will be checking stronger hands to induce bluffs (from hands like BDFD or KQ/KT/...). As we block these villain will check back more often.
We also unblock Ax that will also often check back.
I guess betting small OTT is fine as played. But therefore BU has some more 9x in his range (he will be flatting more pre than you 3bet) we could go smaller (like 1/3) or check again.
So getting raised here sucks and as the population underbluffs at this stake, we could think about folding imo.
But call is the correct standard play.
I don’t really get the lead OTR.
Villain polarized heavilly OTT (to be very strong or on air) and so no real hand in your range should be interested in leading this river as the nuts did not change or the board ran out better for your range.
So this should be a clear check imo.
And for the mentioned reason of underbluffing pools i tend to XF river. But as you seem to have a read on your opponent, calling of is ok as well. Its a close decision then.
April 29, 2021 | 5:20 a.m.
This is a good question. We should be having a raising range here as we have 12-16 combos of KJ and i guess JT qualifies good for bluffing. But i would rather choose the non-club-ones, because i would hate to fold to a shove with yours here. Same might go for QJ maybe.
We also block some bet folds like J8cc with this combo btw (just a small consideration)
April 28, 2021 | 5:54 p.m.
I think folding this is fine. Its tempting given the price and we kept his range pretty whide with our small cbet OTF.
But the flop connects well with the calling range from BU and also the Q OTR hits a lot of his random bluffs that now have some SDV, while we arrive here with fair a bit of stronger flushes OTR as well.
I honestly see bluffs in this sizing-category pretty rarely. So even though this will be a call in theory i guess, i think laying this down is good.