The call is losing slightly from just a $ev standpoint. Busting the one of the best MTT players on the table and putting yourself in 2nd to challenge a larger share of the prize pool probably fills that gap from the negativity on expected ICM value. If he loses he is tied with ben and not that far away from EEE27 as well. I don't think that can be classified as a punt.
July 26, 2020 | 3:01 a.m.
QQ-TT should bet more frequently than AA-KK due to protection reasons OTF so having this particular combo may be harmful card removal on effects. Considering the amount of possible gutshots+ on the turn that bricked on the river on a runout that doesn't improve any of them, given that there is less than PSB left bluff frequency should decrease significantly. This probably has way different solutions on 40-80bb. On the turn I have you bluffing 3 combos (~26%) and river 1.5 combos of QTo. When 80bb, QTo enters more often on the 2 PSB sizing. The main problem of this hand is that you are too shallow to threaten stacks by repping only 8x+
Aug. 28, 2019 | 9:02 p.m.
This river is pretty bad for OOP and should be checked extremely often as x-r outplays betting with the nut part of the range at this SPR. Against a weaker player I assume he plays most of his range as bets and range wise raising should outplay calling by a significant margin except when his betting range contains a disproportionate amount of 5x.
July 24, 2019 | 4:13 p.m.
Flop is probably a mix and turn is a above than average card for OOP then you can just check your whole range if you want but as you decide to pick bluffs this one seems a great candidate. OOP should have all JhXh on his preflop defending range, blocking the nut straight and TPTK seems one of the very few hands without showdown value that can follow through pretty safely without overbluffing.
March 26, 2019 | 1:59 p.m.
Turn is pretty much a blank for his xr range since his value bets are still strong enough to continue and his bluffs pretty much doesn't improve, just the bdsd-fd-bdfd 7x hands.
Those hands are not guaranteed to call the turn always, he needs something to go along with it, if you narrow it to 7x with hearts that xr the flop with some frequency, then you have just a super small subset of combos that are reasonable river xr bluffs (Th7h-9h7h) vs your range that decides to put four bets in.
If you compare that (that are not even 100% of those two combos due to flop xr frequencies and turn xc frequencies) to the amount of value combos is just a large assymmetry that makes KK probably a losing call. Any pair on the board probably performs better than KK due to card removal effects.
March 26, 2019 | 1:53 p.m.
Just be aware that you are against what should be very strong ranges from UTG and UTG1 cold caller (I assume it is 8 to 9 handed). Against their continuing ranges on this board when should you have almost none offsuit bluffing combos K6 isn't doing that well on K32r when you decide to put a lot of money in.
You have QQ-77 almost crushed (that are unlikely to put more than one bet in specially vs two leads) on the flop and KQ+ is crushing you, so almost every time you put two bets in you get just a clear cut fold or a snap call by a better hand.
March 26, 2019 | 1:43 p.m.
If the opening become more profitable because BB is defending less, then, if BN (you in the CO) are 3betting way more often due to that, adjust your range to win larger pots against BN and still be more profitable than the start point scenario.
March 26, 2019 | 1:36 p.m.
On models that passivity dictates the play which should be the case on this stack setup, there is almost no preflop raise or just very specific combos. Against wider than usual humans preflop raise strategy vs limp, AJs is doing 22% better by limping than jamming ICM wise on a general HRC model that allows limp, 2x and jam.
Jan. 28, 2019 | 11:10 a.m.
The street that your hand has the largest equity advantage is the one you put (proportionally) the least amount of money in. Using roughly 56% sizing you can geometrically get all in by the river and it is easy to balance roughly three value bets for each bluff if you want to be precise.
If you use 25% flop sizing, on this specific turn, your turn betting range should become polarized and then you should be betting way larger than you did.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 1:14 p.m.
The flop size doesn't accomplish anything, you don't get enough value when your hand is pretty good (compared to how it will look on most runouts) and your betting range is super narrowed for value and for bluffs. I'd lean towards betting pot and going broke with it.
Nov. 8, 2018 | 3:45 p.m.
Having the Jh this is probably fold since it blocks the most likely IP bluffs. I doubt people on 109's are bluffing enough to KJ be a +ev call even without a heart, specially on this texture. AK is a mandatory call but be aware of your turn checking range to include hands that are good bluff catchers on rivers, this one is definitely not.
Sept. 10, 2018 | 1:54 p.m.
HRC does only preflop calculations, so the raise range is assumed to confront with the call range to a check down scenario postflop. This leaves SB and BB playing extremely loose preflop strategies.
Aug. 24, 2018 | 5:55 p.m.
Ran the preflop spot on HRC (the program assumes the hand goes check down so there is some weird SB flat calls) using ICM.
Adjusting to the more "realistic" strategy play then 22 is losing significantly preflop.
Aug. 22, 2018 | 7:58 p.m.
Overwhelming tournament video. First hand. Fedor is playing a extremely unusual game tree (pre and post) on this stacks setup. As far I checked (ICM wise) this board gets checked on the 96th percentile and OOP never uses pot on the turn when he decides to half pot flop. He is definitely exploiting something on this strategy. Pre, probably Salomon and Smith underdefending and post not really sure.
It should rely on one assumption that if IP always 3bet As[K-T] and fold the lower offsuit aces, then it makes Justin overdefend by 1.6% (considering he calls flop with 9d8d, Td9d, JdTd, QdTd, Jd9d, QdJd, Qd9d, KQ-KJ, KxJx-Kx9x, 77, 8x7x, As2s, As9s-As2s,QsJs-Qs8s,JsTs-Js8s,Ts9s-Ts8s,9s8s). If Justin 3bets As[K-T]@50, then he reaches MDF on the turn by calling just KQ-KJ, KxJx-Kx9x, 77, 8x7x.
I disagree on the argument that 22 should bet smaller than AK since 22 have no harmful card removal effects and having a K decreases Justin's calling frequency on the turn by 27% if you consider he continues KQ-KJ, KxJx-Kx9x, 77, 8x7x vs pot. Checking seems a weaker option than betting specially since Justin is not likely to put two bets in with his bluffs very often when OOP turn calling range should be reasonably strong and there are not a large amount of large equity pivots on the river vs that range on K727.
If Justin calls turn with KQ-KJ, KxJx-Kx9x, 77, 8x7x then he doesn't need to defend every Kx by the river and the turn large bet by Fedor is really well suited to his specific hand. Since it is a spot largely impacted by ICM what do you expect Justin's counter exploits to be on this situation (assuming Fedor is somewhat balanced on his strategy) ?
Aug. 11, 2018 | 8:23 p.m.
Don't know why but seems like posts here are about mostly unavoidable coolers. 4-bet get it in, shoving 60 blinds vs a wide button 3bet range doesn't look like a thing. I'd trap AA-KK sometimes, QQ are way more vulnerable even against expanded 3-bet ranges. As played, call flop and almost always call down on non [A-K] turns and rivers.
Aug. 9, 2018 | 1:35 p.m.
The hands that are folding flop are almost drawing dead against your hand anyway so I wouldn't rely on that too much. There are plenty of hands that need way more protection than AhTx here to design your flop betting range for 1/3 to 1/2 sizing. It is an equilibrium bet for most assumptions for OOP but as long ICM starts to play a large whole, it should dictate more passivity on some spots.
July 3, 2018 | 2:51 p.m.
18 players left on a general pretty soft field I am happy checking back and realizing ~100% of my equity since AhTx can call almost any size from OOP. AhTx crushes in equity a lot of OOP bluffs and still can call even if it misses on bricky runouts when OOP doesn't have a large incentive to be value betting super light given there is already some ICM concerns.
July 3, 2018 | 2:49 a.m.
IP should bet this combo roughly 100% of the time, mostly for 1/2 sizing with this SPR. The best response GTO wise is to shove (shove is better than calling for 0.7bb but Ah5x for example is better to call than shove) given that we realize 100% of our equity.
AhTX is never truly behind, against different assumptions from OOP get it in range we have from 40-55% which is pretty reasonable given the pot is already large and also given that OOP is laggy he should have a reasonable folding region as well. If there is ICM concerns on the spot, then it should be played more cautiously but for me seems a no brainer shove against this player type.
June 29, 2018 | 7:40 p.m.
34:18 As far I checked the whole line by DEX is congruent with the likely equilibriums from both ranges, blocking 9c should make IP follow through turn less often since it blocks a portion of OOP flop floating region that always folds turn but still fine. For me the 7h seemed a bad card to x/c turn the but the sim have at equilibrium IP slowing down with [T-9]7h combos and the 7h will prevent we not having a heart blocker on rivers that complete a flush. Against this pot-pot line by IP, (since you almost folded Qx7h) what type of factors are you weighting to decide your turn defense strategy to make IP indifferent ?
June 25, 2018 | 2:25 a.m.
19:28 Kh9h. are you playing pure checking OOP on QT7 two tone SB vs BTN ? As far I checked, K9 w bdfd should be a lead somewhat frequently from OOP specially against the BTN range who is currently the chip leader and may be opening too wide. The main downside is how ICM dictates passivity on post flop play but stacks as they are, I don't think that is a massive concern with that SPR.
June 19, 2018 | 9:45 p.m.
As far I checked, solvers tend to bet quite large here. Since this a spot that OOP range is quite strong and there aren't too many bluffs, the core solution would be to geometrically size this across three streets on the 65-70% bet size. Even IP always slowplay AA-KK , OOP should bet this size quite often, close to 65% on my sim.
36:19 bottom left, 7h7c. I checked this one if BB folds and OOP should check extremely frequently, ~90% of the time. How do you expect the equilibrium on your bet/check mix to change when BB comes along ?
June 16, 2018 | 12:57 a.m.
24:49 considering only the river play, do you expect to be called by worse over 50% of the time ? Ranges are a bit weird for this one not only for K3o being there but I am clueless about which range IP flats getting to 1.12 SPR OTF. As far I checked into solvers, if OOP uses a geometrically sizing across the streets and decides to check the middling part of the range (wk TP's, QQ, etc) river should be an extremely high frequency check as well.
June 13, 2018 | 1:18 a.m.
15:15 JcTc, why do you decide to use a roughly geometric sizing on this texture ? Would you still use it at larger SPR's (4-6) ? Given positions this is already a quite narrowed range spot in which card removal effects play a huge role. As far I checked into solvers JTs should still be a bluff somewhat frequently OTR when IP always call any boat OTF but mostly for smaller sizing than a hand as A5s (which I assume goes on the 4bet bluff region sometimes as well). Against a smaller bet sizings JJ-TT should be on IP calling range at a decent frequency which makes the card removal effects for this combo somewhat relevant.
June 13, 2018 | 12:40 a.m.
5:21 I really don't get much of this turn bet from Ike.
Assuming this 3bet range from jungle:AA-88,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,AKo-AQo @100% and A5s-A2s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s @50%.
Ike calling about TT-22,AQs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s,A5o, AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo, and slowplaying AA-KK 10% of the time.
Assuming Ike is betting 1/3 with large chunk of his betting range I don't get his range transition to 1/2 on the turn. I expect the worst high frequency value bet from Ike on the turn to be around QxJd which has decent equity against jungle double street calling range and may want some protection again, differently from other parts of Ike flop betting range that may contain some pairs without a diamond for protection/value.
I checked that into solvers and Ike should be betting on equilibrium almost never (~0.04%) with 1/2 and almost always (~71%) with 75%. Can you detail why this Ike line (33%, 50%, 160% should work better than 33%, 75%, 117%) ?
June 8, 2018 | 2:29 p.m.
@10:58 top left 3c2c. I checked into solvers that turn should be a bet quite often with 32s considering how little showdown value (but I assume IP never bet-calls T9o) do you have and how poorly it performs as check-call not only equity wise but on its own realization. This seems one of your better candidates to check-raise/fold blocking A2-A3/43s (not that is a huge win but still ahead of some other possible picks) and how stacks are designed you still have a large bet to go OTR without pricing in every single Ax on IP range. Can you explain further why you decided to check-call turn ?