I ran a few sims in GTO+. The exact solution depends on the details (ranges, bet sizes and so on), but the general idea I got was the following:
I assumed that the Villain is opening fairly tight and c-betting entire range 2/3 pot on K72r. Hero is playing with reasonable ranges (flatting a reasonable range in the BB and cold-calling fairly tight in position). I then looked at the flop strategy.
(a) The strategy depends a lot on whether your OOP or IP.
(b) OOP, the defending frequency is lower (because you're flatting more hands in the BB). It's roughly about MDF, maybe a bit lower (depending on exact ranges). There is a fair bit of aggressive check-raising (stuff like A2s is check-raised) and a fair bit of calling.
(c) IP, there is a lot of defending -- the cold-calling range is quite tight in the first place. Depending on the ranges, GTO+ defends 80% or even more of the cold-calling range. There's a lot of calling, with a decent portion of raises mixed in with strong hands and good draws.
March 24, 2019 | 1:05 p.m.
Your hand is a very good bluff-catcher because you block a lot of the value range (sets, two pairs and straights). It's better to call down with KT than AK or AA.
On the other hand, triple barrels like this tend to be very value-heavy. And you should have a lot of sets/two pairs and straights in your range, so do you really need to call down with one pair?
The decision is close and can go either way. I would look at Villain's postflop tendencies. If he's not very aggro, I would fold. Otherwise, I would call.
March 24, 2019 | 11:42 a.m.
Hand up to river seems fine.
The river is actually good for you because he has fewer combos of boats now. You basically only lose to 76s, 77-66 and 54s. There are only a few combos of those.
The price is very good on the river. If he's ever bluffing with 98s, you have a profitable call on the river. He could also be value-betting worse (like KQ). I would find it hard to fold.
March 24, 2019 | 11:19 a.m.
If you remove the weaker hands in CO's range, their range becomes even stronger. In particular, if you remove the hands you listed (A8s-A2s, 54s, 75s) from the range I outlined above, CO actually has a range advantage (52-48) on this board. Since Hero (SB) has a range disadvantage and is OOP, they should be checking even more.
In general, I basically listed Pokersnowie's recommended ranges for CO flat against SB 3-bet. I think the range I listed is fine to defend for Villain. They are in position and can flat a lot of hands.
March 24, 2019 | 10:49 a.m.
Preflop, this is a bit too loose to 3-bet. I would start 3-betting 66+, but 55 might be fine. With 55, maybe mix in a 3-bet 50% or 25% of the time and fold the rest of the time.
As played, either c-bet flop or check/raise. You can also check/raise turn.
A set is a very strong hand, and you don't want to slowplay. Especially if you have bottom set, you don't block top pair, so you can often stack Villain if you play it fast. Slowplaying top set is ok.
On the river, his range can be wider than what you outlined. He can have KQ and JTs. Maybe Q8s as well.
I would probably not fold a set. You only need about 35% equity to call, and he should have plenty of two pairs in his range.
March 24, 2019 | 6:11 a.m.
Warkittens The exact equities depend on the ranges you use. But on low/middle-card boards with a FD, usually the equities are pretty close.
I used the following ranges:
For SB: AA-66,AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,AKo-AJo,KQo,[50.0]A8s-A2s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,98s,87s,ATo,KJo[/50.0]
For CO: QQ-22,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AQo
March 24, 2019 | 4:13 a.m.
Imo, you should consider your range (and Villain's) in these situations.
The flop is, in general, better for the preflop caller. Assuming reasonable ranges, Equilab shows about 50-50 equity here. He can have a lot of sets/two pairs/flush draw/straight draw type hands. So you need to c-bet less frequently, and with a polarized range on the flop. You should do a lot of checking on the flop.
A reasonable strategy with KK is to check/raise the flop and jam turn. Betting is also fine.
If you bet flop, I don't think shoving for more than 2x the pot on the turn makes sense. Just make two normal bets and get all the money in by the river. Yeah, you're going to get outdrawn sometimes, but you have the Kd, so you shouldn't be too worried. You want him to stay in with a lot of his range when you have a very strong hand. That's how you get paid.
March 23, 2019 | 10:42 p.m.
That's too broad a question. Depends on your range, your opponent's range, whether you're IP or OOP.
As a starting point, you should consider Minimum Defence Frequency. Say, they bet 3/4 pot. Then you have to defend 57% of your range according to MDF. Since the flop is a bit better for Villain's range, you can overfold, so it's reasonable to defend about 50% of your hands.
So go through your range, and see what hands you can defend (by calling or raising). Usually what you'll end up is something like most pairs, some Ace-highs (not all of them), and some suited hands with backdoor draws.
If you use a solver, it will tell you what kinds of hands you can defend. Solvers don't follow MDF, so their strategy can sometimes be hard to understand. Also, they use a lot of mixed strategies. It takes some experience, playing around with various boards and lots of simplification to translate it to a "human" strategy.
March 23, 2019 | 9:51 p.m.
When people use bigger bet sizes, you can fold more hands, which makes your range stronger.
The obvious thing to do in this case is to fold your garbage, and call a lot with the rest of your range. Especially if you're in position.
The point is that their range on the turn would be weak, so they will be forced to check a lot. That's when you can apply pressure. They have bloated the pot with a weak range, and their range will not be able to take the pressure.
Or they will be forced to bluff a lot, in which case, just call them down with decent hands in your range.
Apart from these general principles, you can also buy a solver like GTO+ or Pio, and see how to react to different bet sizes.
March 23, 2019 | 9:30 p.m.
Just call pre. You're in the BB so you should be doing a lot of calling.
On the flop, I would either bet small, check/fold or check/raise. This hand is too weak to check/call. You don't have anything on this flop except some weak backdoor draws.
On the turn, Villain is showing a lot of strength. And there's not much money left behind. So check/raising the turn will not generate much fold equity. You block some of the straight draws and the flush draws, so he is likely to have a Queen or better. You're not getting the right price to call, and you are out of position. I would probably just check/fold.
March 23, 2019 | 6:39 p.m.
Simply posting hand history doesn't do much. You should give stats/reads/ranges/your thought process during the hand. See this post for details.
I would bet smaller on flop.
Turn is fine.
River is close but probably a fold. You have a lot of two pair/sets/straights in your range which can call.
I don't understand the ranges you outline above.
I don't think A5s will bet turn and jam river. Turning top pair into a bluff makes no sense.
I also don't think 76s or 87s will call flop. The flop is very good for your range, and Villain should simply fold his garbage on the flop.
March 23, 2019 | 6:24 p.m.
This seems to be a tournament hand, so you might want to try out the MTT forum.
In general, your opponent's line looks very strong. I would estimate that he either has an overpair, a strong flush draw, a set or two pair.
Against a range of TT+,88-66,87s,76s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,KhJh,AhTh,KhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h
you only have 40% equity, and you need about 40% equity to call. So, from purely a chip EV perspective, this call is probably break-even.
However, since this is an MTT, there are ICM considerations. I don't have a great understanding of ICM, but in general you need to be a bit tighter when calling off in these cases (because the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you gain).
That factor would probably make this close decision a fold.
March 23, 2019 | 11:17 a.m.
I don't know a lot about overbets, but I think your sizing is fine (you can perhaps go 75%). Trips with bad kicker is quite strong, but it's not anywhere near the nuts, so overbet isn't good. He can have boats and straights.
Looking at your whole range, you only have (some) QTs for a straight, and 77 will likely raise the flop. I don't know if you lead with QTo on the turn. I would generally just check/fold QTo and most QTs (except QcTc) on the turn.
So you don't have a lot of strong combos here, while he can have a lot of them. Another reason to not overbet.
March 23, 2019 | 5:37 a.m.
From what I've seen (which isn't very much) I don't see this kind of redline at the micro/low stakes, because Heroes aren't aggressive enough and Villains call too much. My redline is very downward-sloping.
It seems that your aggression is working, so keep it up!
As to whether you are playing well or just got lucky, no way to tell for sure, but probably a bit of both. PT4 has a graph where you can see how many of your flush draws/straight draws came in. You can check it out.
March 23, 2019 | 4:45 a.m.
I would bet turn. Though the Q is good for UTG's range, your hand is very strong, and you want to bet and build the pot yourself instead of relying on your opponent. If he has something like AQ, he might even raise you here.
If you check and he has some hand with moderate to weak SDV, like 88 or AK, he may check back the turn. But check-raising is ok once in a while, and protects your range as well. As mentioned above, you can raise a bit bigger.
On the river, don't fold a set. You only lose to KJ and he can have a lot of other hands.
March 22, 2019 | 5:29 a.m.
I would fold pre against a 3x CO open. If you want to add more hands to BB flatting range, use more suited hands.
As played, it's very weird. I don't understand your opponent's line, unless it's something like AJ, J9, KK or 77. Maybe KQ as well.
You have about 50% equity against that range, and he will fold his bluffs. There's already 0.80 in the pot after his raise and the effective stack is 2.6.
So, shoving turn is probably +EV. Is calling better? I don't know. The advantage of shoving turn is that you don't make a hero fold on the river and then wonder if you were right, to then post on RIO :P
March 21, 2019 | 10:30 a.m.
Same thing happened to me the other day.
Unfortunately, in my case, my two pair got counterfeited on the river. The Villain (a rec) then left the table, rubbing salt into the wound.
I guess I did my part for the poker ecology, keeping a rec happy so that he will lose more money in the future :P
March 21, 2019 | 9:28 a.m.
I said above that "folding is out of the question", assuming that we would probably always have enough equity with two overcards and the NFD.
But since Villain raised so big, he likely has a strong range of overpairs + 8x, together with some a few random bluffs (mostly weaker flush draws). I did some equity calculations in Equilab, we only have something like 40-43% equity depending on his exact range. One problem is that we block a lot of weaker flush draws with the Tc. (Hands like KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, are all impossible)
The HH is a bit weird because the pot sizes and bet sizes don't match. But I think we can fold here.
March 21, 2019 | 5:44 a.m.
Btw, Peter Clarke in his "Modern 3-bet ranges" recommends that against UTG in position, T9s should be 3-bet 50% of the time and folded 50% of the time (assuming you're playing 3-bet/fold).
He does say that his ranges are a bit on the looser side. So, if you would like to play a bit tighter, I think it's probably ok to fold T9s all the timer. He also has a category of hands that he recommends that you only 3-bet 25% of the time. You can also put T9s in there.
March 21, 2019 | 5:21 a.m.
The HH is a bit weird because you say that the pot is 0.75 on the flop, but your raise sizes don't match.
You should c-bet small on paired boards, because most hands will have missed this flop. 1/3 pot works nicely. You can also check. NFD can be played as a mix of bet, check/call and check/raise.
As played, it doesn't really matter what line you take, because he raised so big on the flop. Obviously, folding is out of the question.
March 20, 2019 | 9:01 p.m.
If you play 3bet/fold, T9s is fine to 3-bet against UTG. But don't do it all the time, otherwise you'll probably be semi-bluffing too much.
When CO cold-calls a 3-bet, he likely has a strong range.
I would check flop because you are OOP against a strong range, and your hand has some SDV.
As played, on turn, you're very likely behind, but you're getting almost direct odds to call.
River is a fold, of course, as you did.
March 20, 2019 | 8:39 p.m.
Thanks. A correction it's actually UTG+3 which open jams.
I remembered that there's ICMizer which can help me in these spots (I've never used it before).
My Nash Equilibrium calling range is surprisingly tight: something like 66+, A9s+, ATo+ and KQs. I guess with BB to act behind me, I have to play very conservatively.
I have very little experience with short stacked play, so my intuition was way off here.
March 20, 2019 | 8:07 p.m.
I was trying out a MP vs BB scenario, and I was unsure, so I used GTO+ to see what it does. The spot is following. The details of the GTO+ sim are given at the bottom of this post. (I think I used too wide of a BB defence range.)
MP opens to 3BB, BB defends. Flop is A93r. MP c-bets 33% pot.
What I discovered is that even if MP c-bets 100% of their range, BB folds half of their hands! This goes completely against the MDF principle, but I see lots of spots like this where the solvers don't follow MDF.
What's happening here (I think) is that MP's range is extremely strong on this flop: MP has a 62-38 equity advantage. So BB has to massively overfold on the flop.
[Details of sim:
MP opening range (from Grinder's Manual): AA-66,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo
BB defend range (from PokerSnowie preflop advisor): 99-22,ATs-A6s,A4s-A2s,KJs-K7s,QTs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,[50.0]TT,AJs,A5s,KQs,QJs[/50.0]
I disallowed donk-betting and node-locked MP to c-bet 33% with 100% of range.
March 20, 2019 | 7:18 p.m.
If you are unsure about some hand, just mark it during the session, forget about it, and review it later. There are no shortcuts.
As for this hand, you should not be putting your opponent on a specific hand, but rather a range.
I would not expect your opponent to check-raise Qx on the flop -- such an action makes no sense. He either has a strong Kx, two pair, a set, or is bluffing with some draw.
The overall line he took (check-raise flop, check/call paired turn, lead-shove river) is often very strong. Expect to see a lot of boats here. Some flushes as well. I don't see a lot of bluffs in his range. Playing JT this way would be very weird. Maybe he could play AJ like this, but you block some combos of AJ.
However, you also have a very strong hand, and are getting a very good price on the river, so it's hard to fold.
March 20, 2019 | 2:10 p.m.
SB calling ranges are rather narrow and weird (often depends on Villain). I would estimate that on the turn, he has some sort of middling suited connectors, some suited broadways and some pocket pairs. So he can have a ton of two pairs, straights and sets here.
I would check turn because if he raises us, we're in a tough spot. Since Q8o is the bottom of your range, it's ok to check this hand. You want some top pairs in your checking range.
If your opponent catches on that you're making a lot of thin value bets, he can start raising you light on boards on which he can have a lot of strong hands.
Also, if you check turn, the suited broadway type hands in SB's range will likely bluff river, which you can easily call.
March 20, 2019 | 11:29 a.m.
I would call and be glad opponent didn't bomb the river, because I would call that too.
Against some people it's even fine to raise here. They're trying to get a cheap showdown with this tiny bet on the river, with something like TT.
March 20, 2019 | 11:17 a.m.
I agree that I have a range advantage on the flop, so betting small make more sense.
On the river, I also like a small value bet, but I often find it hard to balance such plays. Also, if Villain raises me, I would have a tough decision. I suppose in this case, I can perhaps call a raise because I have Kd. Or I could fold by making a read that the Villain is straightforward enough.