If you could be the best poker player in any NLHE variant (online tourneys/live tourneys/live cash/online cash) and money was not a limitation, what would be the most profitable direction to go over the next years? My guess is the live super high roller circuit because it allows you to invest the most money, tourneys have so much variance that people will always overestimate their skill, and possibility for alternative income in the form of sponsorships. I don't know anything about the live tourney circuits though so I wanted to get some feedback. Also, as a side question, what are the highest stakes cash games that usually run at the major tournament stops? Thanks
Nov. 22, 2018 | 7:18 a.m.
Running a hand: 5 left at Final Table of MTT. Stacks starting at HJ = 19BB/17BB/25BB/12BB/166BB
I ran the hand in ICMizer looking at the BU shoving range (there is no way to analyze EV differences of shove v min raise in ICMizer right??). BU shoves 12% and SB calls 3%. I ran the hand in HRC with allowing a min raise range and pushing range and HRC says basically only shoving range but shoves 26% and SB calls 24.8%(????). Also, if I change the pushing range in ICMizer to match that in HRC, SB still calls wayyy tighter. I just got HRC so I may be messing up some part of the set up because these results don't seem right. Is this maybe due to the FGS ability in ICMizer? Or why are the results so different? Thanks
May 23, 2018 | 2:23 a.m.
I think its fine to have a "capped" betting range on river as long as we are aware of our range and defend properly against a raise. Also, I think it is more of a problem when we bet like all our ~JT+ on turn because now we can be exploited by being x/raised more often on the turn as well as really exploited after we check back turn because we will have so little to defend with, especially if we are cbetting the flop more polarized/not betting many combos of 77-99.
April 26, 2018 | 2:38 a.m.
Pio generally likes a bigger more polarized sizing when barreling turns on relative blanks.
In a heads up pot, folding any Tx, much less all the Tx would certainly be overfolding. Obviously, being 3 way this changes. Since the BB doesn't close the action he probably gets to fold a little more. However, the UTG player's range is pretty weak compared to what it should be so I am not sure how that would affect the BB's defending burden.
Either way, I did not assume the BB would fold all of his Tx. If I did assume that then I wouldn't be under bluffing.
April 24, 2018 | 11:16 p.m.
Most spots I think we should be betting bigger when turn barreling. Technically, only I know that I am not bluffing enough there and even so don't really see how that would affect our sizing. I am never betting a hand like KT on the turn also so don't think a smaller size is better unless exploitatively people play worse against the small sizing (which I doubt).
April 23, 2018 | 10:45 p.m.
5/10 Live Game. Mostly Fish/Nits/Avg Regs at table.
My image: young solid player. Regs probably assume I bluff way less than what is accurate.
Villain (BB): No reads at all. Assumption was he was an average reg because he was ~30 years old playing 5/10 and mostly likely live professional but only based on appearance/comfort at table.
Fish with wide limping range opens UTG for $40. I have 44 in CO. Not really supposed to have flatting range in any position but BU but with fish behind and very non active squeezers behind, 44 has to be profitable flat. Villain flats in BB.
Flop T42r (~$120)
I bet 2/3 when x'd to and BB calls and UTG calls. BB range prob mostly Tx and straight draws. I don't even know if he would peel 4x/99-55 multiway but probably. UTG range prob super weak b/c no range awareness so all overpairs+ prob out of range except maybe TT and most Tx probably not in range either as these players typically cbet them ~100%.
Turn 6 rainbow (~$280)
I bet $300. BB x/r to 800 and UTG folds. Hero?
No flush draw available means this player probably has 0 bluffs. Can't imagine he's x/raising any 54/43/65/33/55/A5/A3 or really any spaz bluffs. 22 could be in range but he may perceive my range as having 0 bluffs as well on the turn (I am definitely under bluffing this spot) so may not even x/r 22 on turn + may x/r all 22 on flop. 53s should be in his range but honestly don't have a good grasp on avg live regs defend ranges.
I gii b/c I have the 4th nuts and its a fuckin cash game but felt like I was always getting my money in bad and thought I needed some stone cold reads to fold but would like some input. I guess this is more of a population tendency question of if a live avg TAG reg will ever show up with bluffs/worse value enough.
April 23, 2018 | 2:50 a.m.
Agree that the sizing with the T8o seems fishy. Also, you would never really want to bet a value hand with this sizing because you allow villain to get off cheaper when you have him beat and can never fold to a shove given the pot size with value. Therefore, you only get all in when you are behind.
Dec. 9, 2017 | 1:18 a.m.
Just look at what Pio suggests to do in any spot and determine whether or not population will be playing this way and then find the way to adjust to their "deviations"
Dec. 5, 2017 | 1:22 a.m.
I play midstakes online right now but my skill level is much higher than this (using proper/slightly conservative bankroll management). I have studied a shit ton (hundreds/if not 1000+ hours) of Pio and exploitative play based on population deviations from GTO. I am an American 22 year old so looking for someone around my age/american. Just want to be able to talk hands/strategy/population tendencies with (preferably messages). Really looking only for someone that knows they are well ahead of the average reg skill wise. Message me.
Nov. 17, 2017 | 1:07 a.m.
Playing a good reg who is capable of overbetting and i am assuming making some exploitative folds. Never played villain before the limited hands before this though.
I'm dealt 76s
SB opens to $5, Hero 3bet to $20, SB calls.
Flop (~$40): J73r
Hero checks, SB checks,
Turn (~$40): Tr
Hero Checks, SB bets $25, Hero Calls
River (~$90): Q
Hero Checks, SB bets $50, Hero raises all-in to $155
Good bluff? I rep AK decently well and villain can never have AK. Villain pretty much capped at some 2 pairs (not all), some lower straights. He shouldn't show up with many sets if any. I don't think my blockers are that relevant here. What better blocking combos can I use here to bluff?
Oct. 27, 2016 | 11:27 p.m.
I have been wondering how to play spots where our opponent has a range advantage and we are out of position. For example, say MP opens and we 3bet from SB. Flop is 8c7h6c. Assuming we aren't 3betting the sets at a high frequency, and our opponent has all the sets and just as many straights and two pairs if not more, we are at a disadvantage. I think that we are supposed to be checking most of our range on dynamic boards when we don't have a range advantage oop. Given this, how should we be playing our overpairs (AA-QQ). Betting flop will definitely get us in trouble. Check-calling down seems gross and check-raising doesn't seem great either, as our opponent can just continue with better. I don't have Pio so I am wondering how a GTO solver plays these spots. Also, exploitatively for middle/high stakes, is there a more profitable way to play these hands? I would think bet/fold is better vs fish and weaker players, but seems too exploitable vs higher-level regs.
Aug. 29, 2016 | 2:35 a.m.
Yeah, I've definitely watched some videos on it. Basically right now I am inputting my exact hand and then my opponent's assumed range. I then do an EV run and look at the EV for my hand at the given street to see if my action was +EV. Does that seem like an efficient use of the program to analyze hands? Any drawbacks that I am missing?
Aug. 24, 2016 | 2:47 p.m.
I just got Card Runners EV and was wondering what you guys have found as the most productive and efficient way to use the program. I am a complete beginner with the program so not even sure where to start. Thanks
Aug. 23, 2016 | 8:39 a.m.
You have mentioned many times the concept of cbetting ~1/3 pot with almost our whole range when the board favors our range significantly more than our opponent's. One problem I have run into when doing this is villain will float flop a lot and there does not seem to be enough turn cards that give me additional equity to barrel on. Will I have to start using no equity bluffs to continuation bet on turns if opponents are floating too liberally? Should I focus on the best blocker combos, even if they don't have much equity?
Aug. 17, 2016 | 3:46 a.m.
2/5 game. I am sitting with about $700. My image is TAG who is capable of bluffing. Have 3bet twice in 2 hours, but neither went to showdown.
UTG opens to $20 (~$500) TAG
UTG + 1 calls (Fun Player but has become tighter in the last hour-~$800)
MP Calls (~$500) TAG
Hero dealt 98s: ?
I think 3bet > Call but not sure. Fold might be better than both, but this hand seems a little too strong for that. What is your standard here?
UTG is definitely opening a decently wide range for UTG-probably all PPs, suited aces, broadways, suited connectors etc...
UTG+1 calling range is way too wide
MP calling range is probably pocket pair and suited connector heavy
July 10, 2016 | 8:14 p.m.
Hey, I wanted to hear more educated and less trolling than I would on 2plus2.
I am planning to go pro once I finish college next year. I have thought it out a lot. Although I would be passing up on a career path in finance, I want to live the life I want. In the short term, I would definitely make more in poker. Long-term is obviously a different question. However, if I end up having to go back and start in the finance field 5 years from now, I will be content that I at least tried poker out (rather than regretting it if I didn't). I am going to play mostly live cash in the US.
I am not asking if I should specifically go pro, but rather will games be beatable for a long enough time? NLHE? PLO? Personally, I know that everyone is getting better and better at poker. However, Americans are definitely behind the curve and live poker seems to still be doing well. Also, online poker in US is always an opportunity. Furthermore, I think there are probably more American pros leaving the game versus coming in, due to the increase in hard work required and everyone preaching not to get into poker (no proof on this). What are your thoughts?
June 8, 2016 | 3:40 a.m.
Just fold. There are actually a lot of missed draws as he could have so many gutshots on the flop. However, he is just not bluffing enough to balance this size and you have better hands to call. I also don't agree with your conclusion that he doesn't play a 6 this way. A 6 would be my best guess for what he has. He called the flop, checked turn because he has 3rd pair, and jammed river when he knows his trips are the best hand. Don't think this would be a profitable call against a fish in a live setting.
May 31, 2016 | 3:48 a.m.
Bovada 2/4 NL
Effective stacks ~$450
I open QhTh in MP to $10, CO calls
No reads on CO, small sample shows TAG stats
I cbet $13 into $25, villain raises to $35, I call.
Should I consider 3betting this raise? I don't really see the point and he gave me a decent price.
I check, villain bets $90 into $105.
Hero? Is this just a much facing such a large bet on the turn? Obviously the only value hands villain is repping are 88 and 33. Pretty dry flop other than fd so not even sure if he raises these on the flop. Is there any point in jamming (approx $300 behind) to realize our equity?
May 9, 2016 | 6:02 a.m.
I think a larger sizing is way better for the turn. An overbet would be appropriate as you have all the sets in your range, but your opponent shouldn't have any of them (assumption is he would check-raise them or bet them on the flop). And my understanding is when you have such a significant range advantage you should bet larger. Also, exploitatively an overbet would probably get a typical reg off of an overpair, while a small bet won't.
May 6, 2016 | 4:43 a.m.
$1/$2 Bovada 6Max NL
CO opens to $7 (no reads)
I flat in SB with As Qh. My flatting range here is ~ AQ-AJo, AJs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJ, TT-88
Flop: Js 6s 6d
I check, CO bets $10 into $13.
I end up calling. Thoughts? My value raising range is pretty limited here because I have no 6s in my range and wouldn't be raising a plain J. That's why I opted to call instead of check-raise with my 2 overs, ace high, bd flush/straight.
I check, CO bets $24 into $38. I call.
I check, CO bets $26 into $82
Hero? I would think this is the bottom of my calling range. With the As blocker, it reduces his flush combos. I just don't know what he would ever bluff with this small of a bet and most of his value has AQ beat.
April 5, 2016 | 7:54 p.m.
I am new to using PioSolver so just trying it out.
I simulated a hand in which the flop was Th 6s 3d and the turn was a Qs. After the oop player checks on the turn, the solver says the IP player should bet AdQd and AcQc about 90% of the time but says to check AhQh almost 100% of the time. I'm guessing this has something to do with the Th being a blocker to the oop's range, but not sure why the difference exists in the ip player's strategy. Thanks