I do like the line a lot, but only if Villain knows we do / it is common to value bet at least TP on the river.
Heros preflop perceived range contains a lot of xxyy-, high / middling cards and less JJ+ combos. Hero will call the flop bet with a lot of bd-draws. ~40% of the time Hero will improve to 2-pair or better(12%), FD(25%) or Wrap(1,3%) on the turn.
Villain probably expect Hero to stab here often with his draw, air and made hand range, so he can go for a x-raise (thin value / protection / bluff) with his TP/OP and draws, especially as the SPR is that low.
As Hero did x-back the flop he has a lot of hands with sd-value and less air in his range with whom he wants to get to showdown. As Villain didn't bet on the river he shouldn't have that much KK, AA (1 A Hero blocks) in his range. Therefor Villain has a hard time calling of the river bet, although Mr. do not rep that much sweets here.
Villain probably has to call with any A5+ here. In Heros shoes we probably have to bet at least all QK+ for value, so that we can bluff here.
I am curious about Mr. Sweets comments.
Dec. 11, 2018 | 11:15 a.m.
UTG: $74.92 (Hero)
Dec. 10, 2018 | 2:22 p.m.
BN: $30.04 (Hero)
Dec. 10, 2018 | 2:13 p.m.
CO: $35.30 (Hero)
Rake is $0.73
Dec. 9, 2018 | 10:20 p.m.
I am sry to here. You have given some good advice to the community.
But there are also a world out side of poker, so not much lost. All the best.
Dec. 5, 2018 | 4:13 p.m.
What do you do with the hands in HM2 like "bad play" or "good lines"?
The "good lines" probably comes in to your note book which you reread every day and the "bad lines" you will just review once in a while, like every week once so they want repeat over and over again, or comparing all the "bad lines" with each other if there are similarities, like calling to much cbets in 3bet pots.
would you xplain it more in detail? Have you any updates according improvements of your game?
Dec. 5, 2018 | 3:06 p.m.
thx, if I made the right calculation in PokerJuice than we are an about 57% favorite vs villains SOR. Yeah his betting range, especially that big is probably very strong. I did gave him the following betting range J8+,567,9TQ,79T,Jhh,QThh,7Thh,79hh,Q9hh which is also his SOR.
Dec. 5, 2018 | 1:56 p.m.
SB: $95.75 (Hero)
Dec. 5, 2018 | 10:51 a.m.
BB: $54.18 (Hero)
Dec. 3, 2018 | 8:41 p.m.
Bet smaller on the flop, imo ($3-4). You block folks' continues hard on a dry flop, and you want to have a somewhat balanced MW cbetting range that doesn't size transparently according to hand strength, which becomes expensive overall (imo) if you don't size down when you're strong like you are here.
When do never bluff here, why we should downsize our betsizing? You mean that we can play smaller pots with hands like A8, K8 or ATQ?
Nov. 30, 2018 | 10:18 a.m.
Are you saying they've led the river 5 times out of 19? Because that doesn't sound super infrequent to me, but maybe I'm wrong. I haven't looked at what's typical.
No this should be 5 % as I know. OM2 ist displaying it like that.
Nov. 30, 2018 | 10:11 a.m.
Imo one more reason we should bet bigger is, that we never bluff here.
A8 and Ax probably want call if we pot here? Could be 3/4 pot a proper bet-size?
Should we bet 1/2 pot or less in the following scenarios?
Hero UTG and BB calls?
The UTG range will be very AA heavy, so we could bet our whole range for about 1/3 pot.
Should we bet less than 1/2 pot in any 5 way pot? and why?
Nov. 29, 2018 | 1:27 p.m.
We have 24% to improve to a better hand. We are getting about the right odds 26% to call a shove on the turn.
Villain will probably bet all his straights and x-back sets. If we shove ourselves we could get paid from these sets.
Other considerations could be:
Our UTG Opening Range shouldn't contain that much sets, so Villain could be more intended to 3bet his Sets on the flop. Most players Push or fold smaller sets when get x-raised. Therefor villain shouldn't have any Sets in his rage. If this is truth than he may, in rare cases has some floats in his range and will bet as bluff on the turn. Or what could be possible too - he x-back all non-nut-straights and we get a free card or even showdown. Also nut so likely but than we could go for x/c.
I think everything but folding will be +ev. I would tent to x/c on the turn when he x-behind on the turn, than x/f the river.
By the way, if we do not bluff on the flop that often we should pot here, imo.
Nov. 28, 2018 | 12:09 p.m.
On the turn we do not rep. anything, except in rare occasions K8 or 88. What will fold are weaker F- & SD, which we are dominating. We are last to act so we are able to realize your Eq. Same suggestion I got from you in 1 of my last 2 threads.
Nov. 23, 2018 | 4:30 p.m.
What about denying eq on the flop? Is the case of getting worse draws, like FD or SD to call, which are dominated higher in value? Or is the chance of getting any folds from this kind of player too low?
Nov. 23, 2018 | 4:12 p.m.
CO: $70.27 (Hero)
Nov. 22, 2018 | 11:59 a.m.
CO: $25.00 (Hero)
Nov. 22, 2018 | 11:29 a.m.
Villain was laying 96/19/14,5
In villains shoes:
Leading 1/3 pot is probably more standard here.
But our range do hit this board also quite often. So we should stab here also quite freq., maybe not that big though. With his line he will get something from our air, too. So x/c could be a good line for villain with his actual hand. Because we did commit our self on the flop, x-r seems to be more optimal for villain with this particular hand.
Nov. 17, 2018 | 8 p.m.
There are already some nice FI and 3bet ranges out there. I did import the Poker Juice ranges in to my Odds Oracle. But how is it with cold calling ranges?
How we can exclude the folding range out of the FI range?
Take out the AA, thats easy...
E.g. FI range of 20% = $fi20!AA
All kinds of hands with danglers especially the ones which are rainbow and ss hands.
Mabe like that? $fi20!AA!(wxyz!6789+)
We also do need to take out a lot of our single pairs which are not connected.
How we can do that?
And what other hands we should take out?
Is there a video or a threat out there which covers that subject?
Nov. 16, 2018 | 10:42 p.m.
But w do not block the small straight.
Nov. 15, 2018 | 1:43 p.m.
I would ask myself the question: How much is villain willing to pay with his trips and try to get the stacks in. Trips are probably the only combo he is willing to put money in accept seldom you get raised, than he should have it.
So often maximize value, there we should size the turn a bit bigger, so he feels more committed on the river. And in a few cases we do value town our self.
Nov. 14, 2018 | 11:30 a.m.
BN: $34.21 (Hero)