I think that's an interesting point DNegs98 I've often toyed with what is a better call OTT here is it a hand like AQ or 99, AQ blocks his value so makes more sense to call seems logical, plus AQ has outs. The issue is if he has some AK then 99 definitely becomes much better to call down. If we have AK in our range though I think this is the nut bluff catcher due to removal and outs, would also prefer this to hero call rivers, although it does chop some of the time but I don't think that outweighs the blocker value.
Jan. 19, 2020 | 9:46 p.m.
In terms of GTO this has to be a call otherwise we're folding way too much of range on the turn. Vs pool I think it's close as BB vs MP tends to be tighter. Vs this specific opponent I think we have to run with it and probably even hero call the river. If he 3bets a lot and is aggro he's probably going to tripple here a lot with an unbalanced range knowing you probably don't have QQ+
Jan. 19, 2020 | 9:42 p.m.
Yeh but the issue here if you never raise dry boards then villan has really profitable bluffs. As soon as you start raising it prevents him realising equity. Not a massive mstake to never raise though, esepcially in a spot that rarely occurs
Jan. 19, 2020 | 9:35 p.m.
Should be raising flop some of the time when he bets small. Otherwise his range bet becomes crazy profitable so Pio raises some of the time here.
As played I think it's fine would be tempted to pure call turn exploitatively as SPR means we can get it in OTR
Jan. 17, 2020 | 11:17 a.m.
Pre- I would never 4bet here I think his ranges are too strong and we have to fodl to a 5bet.
Flop: Pretty certain pio raise some of the time for value and protection vs 1/3 and sometimes vs 1/2 pot. I think raising though makes turn and river play tricky to navigate so down with a suboptimal call, unless you study this spot a lot.
Turn: I would protection bet a lot for 1/3 we deny equity from over cards prevent river bluffs. Checking seems fine though.
River: Never a bluff, easy fold. Maybe at 500nl it's a call because they actually balance this bet size.
Jan. 17, 2020 | 10:42 a.m.
Yeah very true, thanks for the feedback man. I guess I was thinking I could fold out enough of his value range but yeah I guess actually the exploit is more simple, just raise value fold this combo. Do you think it's worth hyper polarising an all-in bet though? Then I might get enough fold equity from his value range? IMO QJ can't be called so it becomes a bluffing candidate with better blockers than my 8x combo's so if I bluff shove I like this combo.
Jan. 10, 2020 | 9:40 a.m.
This is consistent, if he under-bluffs river it means he check folds river a ton. Personally I think this is massively under-bluffed on the river but depends on assumptions I guess.
Jan. 9, 2020 | 10:28 p.m.
SB: $50.00 (Hero)
Rake is $1.41
Jan. 9, 2020 | 10:23 p.m.
BB: $68.07 (Hero)
SB wins and shows three of a kind, Tens.
SB wins $60.43
Rake is $0.75
Jan. 9, 2020 | 4:20 p.m.
SB lost and shows high card Ace.
BB wins and shows a pair of Queens (pot not awarded as player cashed out).
BB wins $139.90
Rake is $2.00
Jan. 9, 2020 | 2:45 p.m.
Woops lol thanks for pointing it out. Unexpected spot for OOP to lead which usually means he's going to be unbalanced in general, would suggest skew towards almost 100% value here. You have a ton of straights that could check back and he doesn't have any natural bluffs.
I doubt he would do this with Ax when the flush gets there. Our blocker as hero mentioned makes this super sick spot though, with his stats low flushes like 87s seem unlikely.
Although it's super hard for him to have value combo's I think we still just fold because I think this is just never a bluff especially with Villans stats. Seems crazy folding with the blocker though tbh cause he need barely any bluffs for us to call.
Dec. 26, 2019 | 1:10 p.m.
He could be attacking a perceived weak check back range but I just think he's going to be too strong here and unbalanced to value for a 2x pot bet when we look like a Qx or T9 after calling turn pot.
As an exploit you could potentially min raise turn as players are very unlikely to re-raise bluff. So then you have an easy fold OTT and can check back bad rivers or thin value bet
Dec. 25, 2019 | 11:33 a.m.
MP: $50.00 (Hero)
Rake is $0.36
Dec. 23, 2019 | 11 p.m.
OTF: I think we can bet range here it's not really doing much for either player and we have range and positional advantage.
OTT: As played I like the call
OTR: I think calling is marginal maybe slightly losing. I like the you can definitely rep some slow played hands and I don't think pool will hero enough here (dependant on payer, would wan to see his vpip pfr).
On your EV calclations I would calc just for the river. So Ev of fold would = 0 for example
Dec. 23, 2019 | 10:29 p.m.
good that your looking out for this stuff, so many people incorrectly don't report bots (I work for one of the largest poker sites and player reports help a lot). This particular case I wouldn't be too alarmed over a small sample but for sure if you see a few players with identical stats its a good chance its a botting circle.
Dec. 23, 2019 | 10:20 p.m.
Pio likes to go big here (almost the only sizing), we make the most with a polarised overbet as his range is strong and the board misses him giving us range advantage. But maybe we can exploitatively bet smaller to get more fold equity on the river?
As you say my blockers aren't great, I figured villan could fold QQ,KK here though so decided to over bluff the spot. What do you think to how pool play this deep? I think I'm folding QQ on the river for 300bb stack depth, possibly even KK and calling all my AA.
Dec. 23, 2019 | 10:52 a.m.
BN lost and shows a straight, Four to Eight.
CO wins $134.43
Rake is $2.00
Dec. 22, 2019 | 9:16 p.m.
BN lost and shows two pair, Eights and Fives.
SB wins $311.48
Rake is $2.00
Dec. 22, 2019 | 9:10 p.m.
When eh checks riv, he's going to have a pretty capped range. I would therefore ebt to get value from worse kx and second pairs.
Dec. 21, 2019 | 7:17 p.m.
So when I ran a pio sim with 2 betting options to EV was 45. Then when I added a 3rd option the EV dropepd to 43.
So in affect pio choose a less optimal strategy when it had even more options to make a better strategy.
Anyone know why this is happening, guessing it's some weird setting or something maybe?
Dec. 21, 2019 | 6:21 p.m.
First of all I don't think your spewing by taking an aggro line, population over fold so well thought out aggro plays are good in general and it's good to then get feedback later.
We can definately raise the flop at some frequency, we have QQ in our flatting range and 55 and AQ. As played call is fine.
OTT: I think a raise is good not many players have bluffs here, i think you can definately get some Ax to start folding. PIO actually folded KsJs if he bets a lot fo combo's like KQo OTF but I don't think population have much Qx here other than fh's+
OTR: I like the jam I think we can expect AK to fold, some low flush draws too.We need to balance our range too and I don't see too many natural bluffs here. Plus population are gonan over fold here than over call so we want to be imbalanced to bluffs if anything
Dec. 20, 2019 | 5:17 p.m.
Ran a pio sim, mixed strat mostly calling. However pio defended the raise a lot wider than I would expect a reg e.g. defends all 77 with a spade and some Tx without a spade. Think this means it's a great spot to raise as a bluff but more polarised than 2 pair for value IMO.
Dec. 20, 2019 | 4:52 p.m.
Pre does SB have any 4bet folds here? If not just jam I think is exploitatively the best play. As played I think population are hugely imbalanced once they check twice to KK or JJ, maybe some AK. Therefore I like the turn sizing, river we might be better off betting say 1/6th pot to get a hero from that range. It's higher higher EV if it gets called 3x more often than a half pot bet. Personally I think the EV of the two sizings similar.
If you're thinking even AK will fold here then the smaller sizing for sure and you should also bluff everything else like KK, JJ etc