'I think our sims differ a bit on this point. OOP has to call around 40% versus a 1.5x pot bet, and on my sims, he'll hold trips around 21%. Because of card removal he only has to call around 36%, so he'll add another 15% or so bluffcatchers, with the best candidates being 9x hands that don't block any of OOP's straight draws or flush draws.'
I'm curious where you get the 36% because of card removal number?
Dec. 29, 2013 | 9:51 a.m.
I have a question about the K92r - 3x hand, where u hold KJ. You say you'd like to bet big with AK, as to be not completely polarized when u bet that big. What's the reason for not wanting to be completely polarized in that spot?
Sept. 22, 2013 | 7:57 a.m.
What about flatting the flop in your JT4x hand in a 3b 3way pot on T54cc board. I think villain's range will be superdraw heavy, so putting the rest of the money in on safe turns could be better than just folding it right now. It feels a lil bit like you're wasting EV there.
Feb. 22, 2013 | 9:38 a.m.
How does the minimum defence % on the flop change when ppl don't cbet 100%?
Let's say somebody cbets pot, forcing us to defend < 50%, but only cbets 30% of the time. What would be the mathematical implication of this versus a guy who cbets pot, but does it 70% of the time?
This has to change our defend frequency, I'm just not sure how to exactly solve this.
Jan. 18, 2013 | 8:20 a.m.
Jan. 8, 2013 | 8:11 a.m.
There are not that many cards you can use your blockers on. So while in theory your line sounds nice, I feel in practice it could end up being less EV than just betting. Since betting has the advantage of getting a ‘free’ turncheck most of the time and allowing you to hit your equity, as well as bluff some other cards, and ofcourse by betting flop you can get your opponent to fold some AKQ combo’s,which is v valuable.
This is kind of a tradeoff, what do you think about this?
Jan. 1, 2013 | 12:29 p.m.
I think developing a strat where you just raise top 15% and limp like another 15% is more EV than just tightening up and only opening 15%.
I guess it also depends on how high you play and how much rake will impact your winrate, this could sway slightly +EV hands into a fold, just because of the rake.
Dec. 31, 2012 | 8:15 a.m.
Dec. 31, 2012 | 8:09 a.m.
I would be more inclined to open with a bigger sizing in general. Sauce his option is definitely the best though, but highly exploitable, and I'm not sure if these guys you played with are that bad.
Dec. 30, 2012 | 9:14 a.m.
I think the 9 on the turn combined with his lead makes it pretty likely he actually has a straight.
- I think he's not potting a naked Khi flush cause he has too much to lose when shoved on.
- He has a bunch of SD value with Qhi flushes. So he's probably checking them too on the turn.
- You block a 9, making it less likely the 9 specifically helped him, making it more likely he hit a straight.
He could lead some other weakish flushdraws, but I don't think those are a lot of combo's.
His range for check/calling the flop should be pretty strong, so that combined with above assumptions makes it hard for me to come up with enough bluffcombo's.
Dec. 23, 2012 | 4:49 p.m.
It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense for value though (which is why it doesn't make sense as a bluff too :) ) cause you'll have a bluffcatcher most of the time and he should be betting all of his value combined with some bluffs to exploit it. I could see him going for a c/r with T8 or T2 (TT?), hoping you'd have a bare T or extracting an extra bet from a missed draw.
It's a really weird line though, but I'd fold, I simply think he's not bluffing enough.
Dec. 23, 2012 | 4:43 p.m.
Your range can def contain a lot of 87 combo's, which basically play the flop the same way as a low flushdraw very often. If villain feels your range is actually v weighted towards missed flushdraws, or missed overpair+gutter/pair combo's a bluffraise is def fine by him.
It does 'scare' me a little bit that he decided to check back turn. Assuming he feels your range is balanced enough to actually c/r a bunch of blank turns (not sure if it is, or if it even should be, but your PG so everybody thinks you're balanced in every spot ;) ) I could see him checking back a hand like 87xx because it sucks a lot to get check/raised of nut equity.
On the one hand I feel like you might as well fold this and feel fine about it, unless you really feel towelie is somehow exploiting you in this spot. On the other hand your hand is one of the best to have in this spot to bluff with (assuming u don't hold 77/88 a lot), except for a hand like 765 without a flushdraw, which would even be better because towelie could even have more flushdraws. The reason it's one of the best imo is because you block a 7 (whcih also blocks 2nd nutstr), but that ofc doesn't mean you should always bluff with it. That'll probably make you 2 bluffheavy.
I'd say just go with your gut and I'm not sure if we can really help here.
Dec. 22, 2012 | 8:50 a.m.
Is it to induce a light shove and protect your equity a little bit vs wraps/NFD?
I could see how tricky might feel you never have JJ in this spot (because I'm not sure if he thinks JJ is the perfect hand to c/r in this spot), especially once he calls your flop c/r and v often has a J himself. So in that case you'd have to strengthen your turnraise, and bet-calling this looks perfect.
Dec. 16, 2012 | 9 a.m.
The way you played it seems very standard, any reason why you have doubts about this? You have about 1,2SPR left on the flop, which makes almost every flop very straightforward, especially this one.
Dec. 16, 2012 | 8:50 a.m.
I'm inclined to use this as a bluffcatcher on the river vs a strong opponent. We do have a Jhi+ flush reasonably often after taking this line, so I'm not too worried about having too little valuebets in our range actually. We do have blockers for spades, making it less likely he has them.
On the other hand villain might have a bunch of SD value (Like QJJ/KK/QT) and just take it because a couple draws missed, and a couple Txxx, 54xx hands bricked, so having said that I'd rather use this as a bluffcatcher in a spot where villain would be a little more likely to bluff, and when I do bet I'd use about the same valuesizing vs. a tough player as you did here.