need to see a showdown when he donks pot with medium hands before i am willing to exploit raise flop here
ganna be flatting even some Jx here and even if i had the nut full house/quads i still would be flatting so yea having a raising range here is suboptimal - overfold your weak stuff vs the overbet and continue with a very strong range which includes AA is better
June 26, 2022 | 1:56 a.m.
nn to jam just bet a size that gets you money in on turn or river
1/2 pot 1/4 pot all seem good here, your going full value here little bluffs vs a range a made hands that wont improve, jamming is unnecessary
June 25, 2022 | 5:55 p.m.
Why so weak in this spot? It is absolutely so good for you since you will be auto extracting value from the BB who is calling too wide with here with pairs that should be folded pre. BB is capped you have TPTK the nuts here start shoveling money in asap go to value town.
June 25, 2022 | 8:52 a.m.
yea, the more you add in the higher your odds get - when your at 66/33 im pretty stoked to get it all in
June 24, 2022 | 7:53 a.m.
Snowie thinks you are absolutely dead and need to fold here vs the jam - this is assuming opponent is polarized to only sets/straights here
Running it through pokerstove - if opponent has worst 2 pairs, good top pairs, combo draws included with sets/straights then you will be it being ahead 60/40 at best
I'd still prefer calling and playing river than the two scenarios above imo.
June 24, 2022 | 7:24 a.m.
hes more likely to have JT here than you
if you raise turn call jam your hoping he gets it in too wide with worse 2 pair, or jams combo draws too wide - basically the worse opponent is the higher ev this line is
gto probably just flats the pot sized turn bet - if opponent is polarized to sets+ your hand is entirely a bluff catcher and ev goes down and this line becomes suicidal and your gambling to boat up
June 23, 2022 | 11:17 p.m.
it was 50nl
this was years back when acr was getting flak for their bot problems since the same people showed up on the leaderboards of the rake race every month and played the same vpip pfr
some one did a big datamine on the entire zone poker pool to see who the bots are, which also revealed a lot of stats on players
i dont remember what 3bets were, but you can probably find the database somewbere on 2plus2 forums
June 23, 2022 | 7:55 a.m.
there was a huge leaked database from acr a while back to catch bots and the biggest 10bb+ crushers were all playing less than or = to 20/16 vpip pfr, aggro postflop but nut peddling with 60%+ won at showdown percentages
June 22, 2022 | 8:41 p.m.
i dont play on a site with rakeback and havent done so in forever so i forgot all the math behind it
as for the 20nl move up you should definitely consider it because the standard rake online cash games is 5% so anything above that is going over and eating your winrate - the 2nl-10nl games are high rake sinks and if you have the irl bankroll to deposit and move up to normal rake go for it
the 10-20nl jump will not be significant at all, it will play the same difficulty
June 19, 2022 | 5:10 p.m.
probably has to do with the smaller pot to stack ratio postflop but not entirely sure
everyone knows you have to play tighter but when asked why i dont really know lol because the solver said so
June 19, 2022 | 1:12 p.m.
i see that you are using heuristics to justify bets - betting with strong draws, which is perfected valid
but the ev of these hands are determined on what other stuff gets bet here and what gets defended and a lot of stuff is closer than you think so its very likely a mixed line
im obvious betting here in practice as well, but i think the ev differential between checking and betting is small enough to consider if we are betting way too strong on this turn with combo draws into a range thats rare folding
if he has AA/KK here (which he should not in theory) like bigfish says, then that marginally better bet can easily become an adjusted exploit check since your not playing optimal ranges nor your opponents
June 19, 2022 | 7:17 a.m.
turn bet is probably mixed - first instinct is no on river barrel
he cant fold Qx/J here
if you jam you push him off his ak combos, if you check he may bluff worse or check back worse - so checking river seems superior
June 19, 2022 | 2 a.m.
your preflop assessment and choice to squeeze wider than normal is valid but not sound
fold to 3bet does not equate to fold to squeeze and 2 people with high fold to 3bet does not mean they fold wide vs squeeze - your assuming the premise that 2 high fold to 3bet players must high fold to squeeze as well, there is separate stat for that so look for it
the blunder is cbetting flop as played based on your assumption, once your squeeze gets called you KNOW their ranges are super strong so putting more money in makes no sense here so start by checking
again you might be tempted to look at their fold to cbet in isolation and try to stab here but then its the same error made preflop where your assumptions are without context - no need to base your lines by tunneling on hud stats, ranges first and foremost
when you see exploitable 3bet spots you dont actually need to go outside of your normal ranges like here with JTo - instead take those hands that are borderline call/3bet and go fully 3bet with them such as Axs, broadway, pairs, good suited connectors
June 18, 2022 | 1:44 p.m.
this is all about the standards you set for yourself
you know your not good enough to do X but you also know X is the correct thing to do
the way to resolve this is to slowly ease into these spots and try to learn and improve until you are confident to know you are good enough to do x and now you are doing the correct thing - and in this process you will learn a new thing you are not good enough to do but feel its correct, repeating this process improves you over time
if you settle for a 1/3 range bet in all spots then you wont actually resolve this issue because in your mind you already know it is suboptimal, this process over time causes dissonance
the guy who has standardize his 1/3 range cbet without knowing it is suboptimal has maxed his ev over time even though it is not the highest ev
but for you since you already have prior knowledge of something better, your ev wont match the one of the previous mentioned oblivious 1/3 range cbetting auto pilot reg
i suggest the italics paragraph and deviate/experiment to improve your standards in area in which you know you are suboptimal and do not settle for someone less because it is comfortable - just like in life you know?
June 17, 2022 | 8:33 p.m.
fold = 0 ev so if you are avoiding playing stuff that you think are remotely close 0.01 ev oop then you start by calling those to condition yourself
even calling those 0.01 ev hands and check folding every postflop oop is still better than not playing them pre
also check out my new name rionce LOL ive been certified by a board of donkies
June 14, 2022 | 10 p.m.
think we are arguing semantics here
not betting a hand because it cant get three streets of value is not protecting range to me
protecting range applies when you are facing a very aggressive opponent who puts the max pressure on your weak ranges with large/overbets at a high frequency - then you must protect it with some stronger than normal hands
when the pool is not putting any pressure on your weak ranges and do not make large/overbets at any frequency and fail to even value bet at a normal frequency aka playing weak passive, you don't need to protect from anything in practice
June 13, 2022 | 8:26 p.m.
prefer checking and not building a pot here
you have one of the weakest semibluffs and this board hits your opponent calling range and all his draws dominate you even if you hit sometimes
you can get 77-99 to fold later and even showdown vs A high so nn to put a lot of money in even on turn
June 13, 2022 | 8:20 p.m.
so you wanna check to protect your range
protect your range from what?
if you dont have a clear answer for that then you dont need to protect your range and your seeing ghosts and end protecting against nothing and losing value
June 13, 2022 | 7:05 a.m.
Snowie is showing a mixed strategy where flatting and jamming are both equal in EV. But note that Snowie also thinks that your opponent should not be jamming QQ (it flats) here and should be swapping those combos with some an appropriate amount of Axs bluffs to balance out their AK/AA/KK. Against that range QQ is 50/50 and your opponent has to fold their bluffs so jamming QQ has merits.
But if you are up against a standard tight range of QQ+/AK 4bet, you HAVE to flat because if you jam, you are getting it in behind as a 40/60 underdog. Your opponent is almost never going to fold the bottom of their range which is now QQ/AK, and if they did, you exploit this by jamming your Axs bluffs at a higher combination/frequency.
So in theory QQ can be jammed here and will be +ev, there is enough information to deviate in practice and access more ev since your opponents are not even close to optimal strategy in this spot and you can exploit them by manipulating your range.