Preflop is a fold with hands as strong as TT. AQs and JJ might be 0 ev 3bets. You 4bet this and call the jam so you are bluff catching here and getting value owned by every overpair.
Nothing about your reads makes me want to do anything than doing a standard fold preflop. Having a note like 3bet ATo MP vs UTG does not help you at all if you don't know the rest of his range. We can assume he is bluffing ATo, but what is the exact ratio of his value/bluffs before we can exploit him by 4 betting 99? Then you have to know what he does with AK/QQ. We can assume hes doing that since hes aggressive, then hes got about 34 value hands. If he 4bets all his ATo, we still need him to be buffing another 16+ combos of bluffs for our 4bet to be reasonable, and when we do 4bet, we don't even want action, we just want him to fold. The missing piece of the puzzle is what other combos he's doing this with: KQ? Axs? 56s?. If you know that information you have a gameplay, otherwise its not necessary to force this play.
Jan. 20, 2021 | 3:40 a.m.
Q high flops are good for callers range so betting too wide is burning money. Snowie thinks you even need to check a hand as strong as AJss on Qxxss IP after 3betting, a hand that everyone is just cbetting because A high flush draw with overcard ccccombo draw get it in. That is how good Q high flops are for an optimal defender on the button.
Betting AQ on T85cc is way too wide as well, especially vs a SB defend which will be the widest defending range and contain hands as weak as 75s that hit this board and can't fold. At 5nl you can just value town everyone in 3bet pots and never bluff and be fine.
Jan. 19, 2021 | 1:21 a.m.
Get KK pre for 100 bb no matter what action. You raise EP, MP 3bet and CO 4bets, jam your KK here. You open in the same spot and get squeezed after 4 people call, jam your KK right here. You raise someone clicks it back and you click it back and he clicks it back, jam your KK right here too. KK=AA preflop.
Jan. 17, 2021 | 9:50 a.m.
You shouldn't be trying to auto jam 100 bb with AK/QQ+ at 20nl, esp facing multiway raises vs early position. The only hand strong enough to want that action preflop is AA. If you blindly get in AK/KK/QQ all the time, then you are in fact punting free stacks to every fish and nit reg that show up with only AA/KK. I suggest looking into solvers/AI and see the actual EV of these spots, it will reveal a lot.
Jan. 17, 2021 | 5:08 a.m.
You are probably defending by calling too wide with hands that should be folded such has low pocket pairs, or calling too wide by hands that should be 3bet, like AQs/AJs. The meat of your calling range (outside of blinds) is going to be AQo, JJ-88 for a tight range. If you are going wider than this you will be leaking money as the caller in SRP.
Jan. 16, 2021 | 6:49 a.m.
When the EV is that close then choose the one that best exploits your opponents, one you are most comfortable doing, one that maximizes fold equity, one that maximizes profit, etc - whatever heuristic you use will be fine.
You are human and you can't play like AI and try to find the best line when there's only a 2 percent difference in EV. Just accept that its close and its a waste of your time doing mental gymnastics to find the "best". The best a human brain can do is see the best few options and select one from there. So you already now the best two, just pick one and spend the time you would have used deciding to do other sims and find the other best two frequency and sizes for different boards. For mere human brains like us, finding out the top 3 lines for a variety of general spots and being able to identify them is more important than trying to find the best line in a very specific spot with very close EV.
For this flop the general takeway is that you can bet frequently and big when the flop hits your range hard. This spot is very similar to when you open UTG and BTN calls and flop is the rare AAA. Solver probably allows you to bet with all your hands for medium to big sizing and avoids small bets since your range is nutted. So as long as your betting most of the time for a significant chunk of the pot, its all good.
Jan. 15, 2021 | 10:10 p.m.
How many people feel this way? This might be esp true at microstakes. Your just trying so hard to make the most plus ev moves and it doesnt even matter cause you break even. Then you either cooler someone or someone coolers you once every hundred hands or so and you think to yourself what skill is there in this game? And now your just identifying all the good cooler spots trying to put your money in and dodging coolers from other people doing the same. This is what the game feels like in ring games.
Jan. 14, 2021 | 8:58 p.m.
You can actually exploit fold the flop if you know the tendency of this player or what the population bets with for pot - if its heavily weighted towards value on wet boards, which is mostly the case at 25nl.
The flop call is slightly +ev vs someone decent with balanced pot size bets, so its going to be closer to 0 ev with worse players like this guy. In practice I am personally folding flop and feel fine about it knowing its either meh or im getting value owned. Turn is a very easy call vs that size. River you are right at the indifference point vs his bet size which means its a fold since hes a fish.
These lines are really transparent when you follow the bet sizes since hes never going to be polarized with any bluffs here. Its mostly going to be Qx+ going for big value on flop, then facing a turn that brings straights and 2p and betting smaller cause they are scared, and feeling more confident when they didn't get raised on turn with another small river value bet.
Jan. 14, 2021 | 8:45 p.m.
Combo wise, you cant bet all your missed high cards on this board or else you are betting too much. In these positions, I like checking back since your hand can at least showdown with KJ/QJ and win.
But generally, you will have to split the combos of your missed high cards: cbet /x the ones with backdoor flush draws and do the opposite with the other combos to remain balanced, or come up with your own mixed strategy.
Bet size wise, 50% pot is a fine standard bet until you learn to fine tune bet sizes more. Also I agree with Ryan with PFR sizing, you should slam Pot preflop for .35 and expect the BB to still call with all offsuit combos of QT/KT/JT when they are not suppose to.
Jan. 14, 2021 | 5:50 a.m.
Seems like solvers have a very mixed strategy in SB vs BB where it will split most hands into both a limping and raising range. This allows us to limp in with very weak hands and see flops cheap. However, I find this very difficult to implement in practice as people are so happy to raise a SB limp in the BB, and humans cant randomize enough to make limping with strong hands efficient. The more practical strategy is to simply raise all hands in the SB to a pot/3x sizing that are +ev and fold everything else, thus missing out on small EV with weak hands that should be limped. I was wondering what everyone else is doing. Have you been raise/folding in the SB vs BB, have you tried limping to see what happens?
Jan. 12, 2021 | 8:04 p.m.
Villain shows Axss too much?
Jan. 11, 2021 | 9:16 p.m.
Snowie thinks raising a hand like 44 in MP for a min raise is 0 ev against a table full of strong players, which is understandable since everyone will be 3betting and defending close to optimally.
But does the EV of this hand go up on a table full of weak players at 2nl/5nl?
- Well since its 0 EV vs good players, it has to be +ev vs weak players right?
Not sure if this is always correct, since weaker players will be flatting hands like 75s and K8s vs this sizing, where good players will be 3betting a lot with Ax and suited connectors while avoiding calls with the same hands that weaker players would call with. So a hand like 44's EV, would it change? Then you have to consider that if weaker players call 75s and K8s, we should be opening hands like KTo in MP for a min raise as well.
- Weaker players will flat stronger hands, which counteracts preflop loose openings?
This is something I always think about in softer games. Yes we can open more hands than usual since people are passive and not 3betting enough, but the trade off is that they will have stronger hands postflop than average. Is the tradeoff of realizing the equity of the lowest part of our RFI range worth playing vs a stronger range postflop?
I'd like to know what you guys think - the big here is do we exploit softer games by playing tight or loose. Traditional thought is to play tight, but I suspect that playing very loose pre and realizing your equity with 0 ev hands, then adjusting postflop accordingly, might be better.
Jan. 11, 2021 | 7:18 p.m.
Really hard to determine unless we have specific reads on how villain plays some hands. Your hand has a change to showdown and win so checking is fine. You can always bet smaller and accomplish the same thing. This was a clickbait post, nice job.
Jan. 8, 2021 | 5:59 p.m.
Squeezing is a exploitative move play that tried to get regs that fold to 3bet to exit and put you hu with a fish that calls too much. It was trendy back in the day but has left people thinking they can 3bet hands that are too weak. The more people entering the pot the strong your hand needs to be playable, and that scales...higher than even linearly. So as more people enter the pot, your range probably tightens > 50% with each person is what I am saying. This end up with people playing a range that 3bets too many weak hands and calls too many weak hands, making it unplayable multiway.
If you are lucky enough to find a reg with 70%+ fold to 3bet pre in a spot where a super whale station calls and you think a hand like AJ/KQ is strong enough to play vs the whale in a 3bet pot - or find weak regs that all fold to much pre lined up in a spot where they all enter the pot like lemmings, then absolutely go for squeezes with any playable hand. But outside of those scenarios, all these hands you listed are too weak to 3bet on a table of good players.
This is what Snowie thinks:
- No Squeeze No Call with JTs.
It's playing a predominately 3bet/fold strategy and the weakest 3bet hands it has are Axs and KQs.
- No Squeeze No Call on both KQs and KQo
If KQs was the bottom of 3betting range vs 2 player, its definitely going to fold vs 3 players. Here the range tightens up significantly. It will again only 3bet/fold, with the weakest hands being only A2-A5s. It cuts out all the middle Ax 3bets and even folds a hand as strong as TT. If it flats, it will only do it with JJ.
- No Squeeze No Call with KTs
It thinks you have to fold JJ here, and your squeeze size should not exceed 1.5 pot with a hand like QQ. It completely removes all the Axs bluffs and replaces it with 54s-76s.
You can use this as a baseline for squeezing blind, but the most important thing like RaoulFlush said are the tendency of the players. If you don't have HUd stats or reads, you will be burning money squeezing the hands you posted.
Jan. 6, 2021 | 5:41 p.m.
Flatting pre is fine, calling or raising flop is fine, calling turn is fine. Jamming pre is the best imo. I see no reason to even try to be remotely balanced in this spot by flatting your 2 combos of AA for GTO play.