Risva10

Really I should be calling a x/r? It should be pretty big on this board, the Q blocks plenty bluffs, unblocks straights, we unblock small sets that should be a big part of the x/r range too.
Dont you think the average low stakes x/r range will be too value heavy here?

Is this true cause I am 3betting linear on the SB? Since I will have J9s, K9s, A9s etc.?
I was thinking the CO will have a lot of continues here so I should be betting less frequently, x/r a bit more since he will bet a lot when x to.

Generally I think I am cbetting a bit too tight when OOP. Should I be c-betting flops wide and giving up when we miss on turns OOP?

This was like an 11$ MTT I think.
Making a decision here based on villain's c-bet and T c-bet should be the way to go right? Some low stake players just bet, bet a lot while others just bet everything on a dryish flop like this and give up their bluffs.

I thought you said it was some well known players solved ranges not a solver?
Anyway its not an emotional decision, its not cause you should be scared of busting, its cause you should not be risking your stack preflop in marginal EV spots vs an average micro-mid stakes player. Most of them are weak regs, bad recreationals that will hand you their money postflop. And also they are not even close to playing gto. 3bet ranges extremely unbalanced, 4bet bluffs pretty much never happen etc.
The ranges that solvers suggest require that villain is playing perfect poker and do not account for the edge you might have on your opponent.
Vs a good reg that is going to be aggressive as the solver assumes things change.

Yeah I think you are right, I should be continuing. I just got caught up in " I don't have much 9x " type of thing. But do you think he is bet/calling a raise OTF with 66 and 77 ? Seems loose to me, these pairs are just so good to put into your x back range, have some disguised straights and if you bet 77 there what worse calls you?

Not a Pro just making some thoughts.
Its definitely due to "tournament life" as you call it. Its not due to ICM, its due to the fact that your stack is all the chips you are gonna get in the world. Its a tournament, if you loose you are out, so taking the lower variance route is never bad. Its even better if you think you are much better than your opponent cause you are going deeper postflop. Now me being not so good I would be 4betting 100% of KK and more than 40% of QQ.
On the other hand the SB should be 3betting linear which should allow BTN to 3bet more often for value. If the BB was the 3bettor it would make much more sense to flat QQ, cause he is polarized he either got it or not.
Also having position magnifies the edge you may have postflop.

But when he sees you are setting up a river shove he is far more likely to fold. Maybe even overfold. By using a smaller sizing you dont pressure him to make mistakes. Plus its a PKO why wouldnt you set up a shove if you got value?

I mean he shouldnt ever have 66 after he called flop, or 99 for that matter. I think 80% of players would be raising 99 OTF. And yet if he had 99, he mght fold to the river overbet. Thats why I think I should be barelling river after we cbet the previous streets here. Nothing wrong with giving up though, people dont just cant fold 2pair and sets at these stakes.

SPR was ~ 3.5 here. When can we start just folding? Like ~ 3?

HU I should be betting some of the time right? Like 30% ?

On low stakes I would be betting 1/3 on that flop with most of my bluffs, maybe size up with a BFD. I think 1/2 pot is not gonna be used too often, you could bet 2/3 but generally I would bet small with bluffs cause people wont pick up on it and will rarely raise. I would continue on that turn vs most opponents with a 2/3 sizing to put pressure on Jx and weak Ax, fold out 3x and some middling pocket pairs. If he calls turn I would probably x back river.

He shouldnt be raising so big vs your limp. He shouldnt be going more that 3.5 this swallow. If you think he is going crazy cause of the smaller stack you could limp jam this hand with so much money in the pot. Cause he is never doing that with top of his range right? I think calling with this hand PRE is pretty weak. You will be OOP with a hand that cant make top pair often enough, it's a hand that plays bad OOP in a pot with such low SPR and we can see by his flop play, you will have a hard time realising your equity. Thats why I would prefer limp/jam or limp/fold depending on your reads. As playedI dont even know what I'd do postflop, I wouldnt expect to have fold equity and would probably sigh call once on this board but maybe we should be folding.
Your range is not really capped when he uses that sizing preflop, SPR will be 3 on the flop so I would probably always be calling AA, KK and not shoving. You dont have AK, AQ but you can have AT, AJ some of the time and a lot of suited aces.

I get what you are both saying but I just cant see the need for protection with this hand, it has every runout covered. AJ, AQ, AK need much more protection imo. Plus if we bet the flop what turns are we betting? We cant bet on broadway turns, if we turn the FD I don't see how we can bet the turn with AT vs an UTG range and then we can get in some dicey spots OTR. Checking the flop to let villain bluff while having a hand that can call multiple streets I think will net us more chips, SPR is less than 4 anyway.

Btw should I be taking a shove like 66 or 55 UTG for 15BB? Till today I considered it a mistake since I will find spots with bigger edge pretty often really and I believe to have an edge postflop even 15BB deep. Talking about low-mid stakes of course.

You might be right about how often we have to bet but I think your reasoning is not really on point. It's a MW pot with a 25BB stack opening UTG, ranges are not as wide as they may seem, villain should be checking AJ with some frequency cause Hero can be flatting AQ, AJ himself. What do you expect to get callled by when you bet with high frequency? KK, KQ, QT, well you are not getting more than one street of value vs these hands except if they turn a FD but again if Hero bets villain probably cant call the second barrel because hero's value betting range is really strong, narrow and bluffs minimal. BB should not be playing for stacks with anything worse than AT-A9 and if I bet half pot OTF BB should not be defending most of his Qx since he is sandwiched in bettwen, OOP and our ranges are stronger than usual in a MW pot. So you can see the value we can extract is really limited here. But if we x a hand like this one, no matter what the turn is we can call, we can let villain delay cbet some bluffs while we are staying IP and if we are behind we have a redraw on many turn cards. We shouldn't be worried about 55 since their share of the pot is really small and we dont gain much by folding them out. I was not advocating x back cause I was afraid of getting x/r but cause we have to balance our range, we need to x some top pairs or villain can just call us down with KK and second pairs every time we x the flop and he can fold anything worse than AJ if we bet the flop.

No you are right, got a bit ahead of my self, I wouldn't flat ATo xD