You can get an estimation by looking at GTOwizard preflop ranges and calculating it yourself. E.g. btn-bb srp : multiply utg,mp,co folding frquency, your opening freq, sb folding freq, bb calling freq. You get the frequency you end up in a srp btn vs bb when you are OTB, if you want the general frequency you divide that number by 6.
May 16, 2022 | 8:34 p.m.
I think it's a bet most of the times. Maybe slightly bigger, as you may want to go geometric at this point. This hand is your most natural bluff, it has the most equity since the turn brings no flush draw and it blocks AQ. So i think I'm also shoving the river pretty much always. The 2 lower cards on the flop makes less likely villain is holding a set, too.
May 13, 2022 | 12:09 a.m.
Great video! I have one question: Against fishes, do you use the small size with your whole range? I tend to bet bigger the stronger hands, thinking they won't notice. Am i mistaken? They say you shouldn't worry about getting exploited vs fishes and betting small with strong hands just feels like missing too much value, especially if they are passive and don't raise enough.
May 12, 2022 | 7:41 p.m.
No, of course not. This specific removal effect is neglible the earlier the position we consider. The 2% difference you mention in the SB situation may seem minor but i'm concerned that this could snowball quickly when it comes to postflop situations.
Also, the bunching effect can apply to any action both preflop and postflop, potentially messing up with flop textures and runouts frenquecies, in a way that is hard for me to imagine. E.g. If the SB opens and the BB calls (whose ranges are less Ace-oriented than other positions), there will come more Aces, or higher cards in general, on the flop,turn and river than the solver is considering, potentially affecting the whole strategy.
May 12, 2022 | 4:40 p.m.
Some showdowns would be interesting in order to determine the best line. If you're using Hand2note I advise constatly looking at them in the down times.
Did he ever donkbet the flop? Did he check/minraise top pair no kicker ? Did he bluff vs a passive line? Did he donkbet the turn or river when improved?
If so, his range may be weaker than one could expect, all these actions push towards checking, or at least betting smaller.
If not, i would be more inclined to bet here. In my experience many recs are very scared of 4-cards straight boards and flush completing cards, and may actually fold a trips or a one-card straight vs a massive shove, or even check/calling, making you lose tons of value compared to a turn bet.
May 12, 2022 | 4:09 p.m.
I don't know from where you derive that number of 20 combo of Ax in a 20% opening range. If i look at GTOwizard's HJ opening range (21.6%), there are about 108 combinations holding at least an Ace over 286 combos.
As for the magnitude of the effect, i found this estimation made some months ago. It is about a 9-handed game and the results look quite significant.
Of course in a 6-handed game it will be less important, but I suspect these effects, and the mistakes solvers may be making not considering them, would be amplified in later streets. See 'The compounding effect' video by Francesco Lacriola.
May 12, 2022 | 1:27 p.m.
Folded cards are never being revealed. Yet the information of an opponent being dealt a hand in his folding range vs his opening range is still an information, altough less useful.
As for math conspiracies, i'm not commenting. I play on PokerStars so i'm sure dealt cards are 100% random.
One of the great challenges in generating a truly random number is that computers are logical, process-led machines, and so any series of numbers produced solely by a computer can never be truly random. We use a ground-breaking system based on quantum theory. A single photon is directed at a semi-reflective mirror; the angle at which it is reflected, or whether it passes through, is an entirely random process that can never be accurately predicted, reproduced or interfered with.
Our random number generator has been tested and certified by Gaming Labs International (GLI) to meet the industry standard for highly-regulated jurisdictions. Click here to learn more, or click here to read our Certification of Integrity.
Even on a site which uses a more traditional RNG, the shuffle is going to be random-like in the long run and any algorithm would be too complex for a human to identify, as long as there is no fraud going on.
May 12, 2022 | 12:56 p.m.
Imagine we are in a 6-handed cash game. 4 folds, so it's BvB.
The 4 folds tell us the 4 players had 4 hands not worth playing. Even if we don't know the exact cards they folded, there is still a removal effect making it slightly more likely SB and BB have stronger hands.
Plus, there is a rarely mentioned effect, the Bunching Effect, which also considers the likelihood of cards coming down to the board.
E.g. The 4 folds make it more likely an Ace to come on the Flop as this is the most present card in opening ranges from every position, especially earlier ones.
If you need a more detailed mathematical explaination of these effects, you can find it here: https://forum.redchippoker.com/discussion/6588/the-card-removal-effect-and-bunching-effect
I'm wondering if solvers are considering these effects in their algorithms. Anyone knows ?
May 12, 2022 | 5:41 a.m.
Bet bigger on the flop, your hand is strong and your opponent looks like a recreational player. That aside, the hand is correct imo. He has QJ or Ax of spades most of the times.
or he semi-bluffs with BDFD on the Turn
There is no Backdoor Flush draw here. Just Flush draw. You have a backdoor flushdraw if you had 3-to-a-flush on the flop.
As for english, don't say 'at turn' and 'at river' but on the flop (OTF), on the turn (OTT), on the river (OTR).
May 9, 2022 | 7:52 p.m.
Rake is $3.00
May 3, 2022 | 11:29 p.m.
If someone is 3betting tight but still folds to 4bets enough, you shouldn't 4bet linear but
tighter and polarized. Same goes for 5bets. You don't have to 4bet QQ and AK if calling is better.
If they're calling 4bets, and 5bet only value, you can 4bet linear and 4bet/fold all but KK+.
But keep in mind that this is "aggressive" exploting and makes you vulnerable to counterexploits. If they don't adjust you make $$$ just by saving vs their nuts.
It is generally true that GTO is not the best strategy against weak players.
April 24, 2022 | 5:24 p.m.
So 34s would be fine to defend here, I think. Prob all 3 options are fine.
Folding is not an option. Calling is the best option unless you have read he overfolds to 3bet and/or under4bets. BvB it's better to 3bet a more polarized range with blockers since he should'nt be calling much oop.
On this exact river, my bet size would be very polarized, pot over at min? Because my turn pot bet range contains less Kx and more straight or set type hands. Regardless of whether it's a bluff or a value, want to go huge here. I don't think he check call ott w sets.
Correct. You have huge nut advantage, you can go 2xpot or even more.
Thus I choose some busted FD with Q/J.
You don't have enough of these hands to balance your value hand for a large size. I don't think they are the best bluffs either. Your hand is good to go. You unblock all the pocket pairs and block the boats.
April 23, 2022 | 3:51 p.m.
Premise: I ask this question for fair game concerns. I do not have any malevolent intent.
Can Pokerstars detect GTOwizard usage during play? If I login on Stars with PioSolver or Equilab running, I immediatly receive an alert message telling me to shut them or get banned. But If I have GTOwiz in my browser, no such thing happens. So is it possible for someone to navigate solves while playing with no consequencies?
April 23, 2022 | 8:01 a.m.
Hi guys. Where can i find some free solver-based preflop charts? I can't find anything on the internet. I also have an essential subscription if there are some videos here. Looking for opening, defending, 3betting, 4betting, 5betting charts. Preferably with low stake rake structure and no preflop rake. Thanks.
April 22, 2022 | 8:59 a.m.
UTG: €11.58 (46 bb)
CO: €31.98 (128 bb)
BU: €22.75 (91 bb)
SB (Hero): €56.49 (226 bb)
BB: €38.26 (153 bb)
Pre-Flop: (€0.35) Hero is SB with 8♠ 8♥
UTG calls €0.25, 2 players fold, Hero raises to €1, BB calls €0.75, UTG calls €0.75
Flop: (€3) 2♥ 5♥ 8♦ (3 players)
Hero bets €1, BB raises to €2.75, UTG folds, Hero raises to €8, BB calls €5.25
Turn: (€19) A♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets €13.43, Hero calls €13.43
River: (€45.86) T♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets €15.83 (all-in), SB (Hero) folds
BB is reg 27/18 3bet 4.7, very passive OTR with 17% river agg%