Payouts/Stage of the tournament are pretty important factors here, as well as stats/history on villain.
Preflop, both calling and 3betting seem fine, I prefer 3betting AQo and perhaps lean more towards calling with AQs, since there are more flops where we can continue with backdoors and flush draws. If villain is tight (Likely to 4bet since his UTG open is super strong) I would always flat but if villain is looser I might 3 bet. If theres big payout pressure I would also prefer calling.
On the flop I think all options are perfectly fine, but again very dependent on villain. The problem with cbetting is we have to check most turns (We have no backdoors) and that opens us up to getting bluffed on turn/river or having our equity denied by a 3-bet. I think its fair enough to cbet if we think villain is folding AK-AJ, KQ often here, he is most likely continuing with most of his range tho so probably not the best option.
Check-folding is also fine, this flop is better for villain's range than ours and if we're likely to make mistakes on later streets its probably better to just fold now.
I think I would opt to check-call, I believe with this sizing villain is either nutted or not that strong, making me think hes going to check a lot of turns (Allowing us equity with 2 overs) and barrel whenever he has sets or overpairs (Perhaps 55) making it an easy fold when turn is a brick.
Aug. 1, 2017 | 1:05 a.m.
Wouldnt say its a clear-easy shove, If villain was raise-calling correctly then we could shove it profitably for 21bb but I highly doubt thats the case. However, just because we could be shoving profitably doesnt mean its the best option. I would also consider calling and perhaps 3betting.
40 hands is not that meaningful but his stats suggest he is opening much tighter than is correct, so perhaps hands like QJs-KQs could still be profitable shoves by ChipEV but become -EV as soon as some ICM is taken into consideration.
I would probably opt to just call if SB and BB are passive and not too short, therefore being likely to see a flop. If blinds are likely to attack my flat then I would often lean towards shoving but it would depend on many other factors (Stage of the tournament, my stats/image, previous villain actions, how active the table has been, rest of the table stacks...etc)
Aug. 1, 2017 | 12:30 a.m.
Looking back I think I agree with you, shoving this hand is just bad with no fold equity, altho Im pretty sure i would never be able to fold QJ here.
I did indeed shove, and to my surprise, villain had KQo (absolute worst case) and had me drawing close to dead. Felt like a huge punt since I was very likely to cash if i folded.
I do believe this was a very unlucky spot tho, I would expect to have at the very least 30% equity here most of the time (if not more).
Thanks for the response!
July 31, 2017 | 11:40 p.m.
BB: 79,177 (Hero)
July 31, 2017 | 12:58 a.m.
Pretty ugly spot, but I think you played it fine, everything is pretty standard up to the river.
It just comes to what you think he is shoving, We need to be good 32% of the time on a call, obviously he has a lot of Jx, so to call profitably we need him to either be bluffing a fair amount or be value shoving 2 pairs. I think its quite ambitious to assume villain is always shoving Q9-QJ, K9-KQ, but the problem is I also dont see villain floating flop with that many Jx or backdoor diamond draws.
I think I would also fold vs an unknown, but I think I would find a call if villain had any signs of being loose or a fun player.
Don't see either calling/folding being a big mistake, so I wouldnt worry too much about it.
July 29, 2017 | 11:57 a.m.
As played, folding river seems correct imo, not beating much. But I think your reasoning is a bit off, here's what I think:
From a theory standpoint, our main way of making $ in microstakes is going to be a tight-aggressive strategy, playing nutted hands in position and extracting max-value out of our very exploitative opponents. While we can also make $ by bluffing, hero-calling and playing marginal hands out of position, they are never going to be the main part of our game until we reach stakes that require a more balanced strategy. Now, the more we know about our opponents the more we can adjust our strategy to make more $ (Start bluffing the nits, Size Value-bets against calling stations, etc...) Makes sense right?
Now, as you said, villain is unknown and we have no idea what he is limping, this could mean he might have a 90 VPIP or it might be the first hand in 100 he plays. If we knew which one villain is, we would certainly want to play this hand very differently. So since we have no idea, we want to play a very standard and more balanced-passive strategy this hand, possibly missing some value sometimes but also often saving chips. I would do this until we pick up some stats/reads on villain.
Now on to the hand:
A9o out of position, this hand has a realisable equity problem, its very difficult to know where you are in any street and this makes it very easy to make mistakes. In addition, I don't see us getting 3 streets of value here, villain won't showdown a worse Ax or middle pair often enough to justify barreling flop-turn-river. Would only consider doing this if I know villain is a calling station and unlikely to be trapping. So imo we must check at some point during the hand.
I think our best option is check-calling flop, check calling turn and evaluate a river call if villain bets again, this makes it easy since villain will tend to triple barrel all better hands (AT+, sets, 2 pair) but check and allow us showdown with everything we beat (Midpairs, bluffs, worse Ax). We shouldnt assume an unknown villain is triple barrel bluffing here.
On the other hand, if villain checks back flop, we can assume we most likely have the goods. We can barrel around 40% pot on turn and river on most runouts and expect to get called by many worse hands and bet-fold to a shove.
July 27, 2017 | 6:44 p.m.
Don't mind checking either flop or turn with this hand, the flop smashes their PF calling range and I think you also get often checkraised which is awkward. If villains are aggressive or a bit loose I would take the same line as you did, perhaps betting bigger on the flop and turn and happily getting it in against draws or Tx. As played, I would also fold river if BB seems decent, never folding vs a donkey.
June 14, 2017 | 1:20 p.m.
On the river and on that runout, you definitely have to call, you need to be good about 25% of the time to breakeven (ignoring icm), since he seems like an aggressive player, we're not worried about JJ+ when he just calls preflop, so his value hands are solely 5x and possibly some Tx with good kickers. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to checkraise a 5 on a 55Tr flop very often, we're also beating all his Tx and air. I think were good enough here to justify a call on the river.
Sometimes it is your time to go in a tournament, being deep against aggressive players sucks because certain spots tend to have more $ variance, even if sometimes we are beat here, we still have to go with it imo.
June 12, 2017 | 6 p.m.
I should of mentioned MP had quite tight stats, so I was kind of worried about him having JJ+ (maybe 99?), and once he cbet that flop 5 ways I thought hands like AQ/AK were not that likely. I do agree that calling in the sb preflop sucks so I only do it when BB is a weak/passive player (quite often in these stakes).
I also think in the microstakes players with this profile very rarely 3bet/raise limps preflop without the intention of getting it in, so I prefered set mining and letting the limpers and BB into the pot.
Also, in your 3 bet range, does this mean you are folding 77-? would you also fold 88-99 against a tighter MP?
I really like the idea of shoving turn tho, wish I thought of it in the hand.
June 12, 2017 | 5:32 p.m.
Calling the initial 1500 is standard but once BB and especially MP shove I would fold, I think youre very rarely ahead (even If you were flipping this time) and you can easily get away having only invested 1200 in the pot. Perhaps hands like 99-TT and maybe JJ become more marginal but unless the table is pretty loose I would lay the 88 down.
June 8, 2017 | 5:48 p.m.
SB: 8,340 (Hero)
BB wins 17,260