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JACKraceLUKE

24 points

Very interesting Topic! Unfortunately I don't use snowie at all, but I really hope to see some feedback in this thread!!

Sept. 24, 2018 | 9:42 p.m.

Comment | JACKraceLUKE commented on Sample size

I believe everything above 500h gives you a rough idea of where you're at in a certain game.
If you wanna figure out your exact hourly though - 2000h might not even be enough as variance can be outrageous.

Sept. 22, 2018 | 8:36 p.m.

Yes, if I remember correctly there is a whole chapter about it.

Sorry, I actually missread the turn as a 9. I think keep betting on the 8 is totally fine.
The suggested check fold to river shove is of course highly exploitable, but I just don't see people bluff that river a lot if at all. Since he shouldn't have many offsuit hands in his range - he will not have many natural bluffs. He‘d have to turn hands like KQ und QJ into a bluff on the river in order to make bluffcatching reasonable.

Aug. 29, 2018 | 7:33 a.m.

I agree, 3-bet range is pretty wide but then again players in those games tend to not 4-bet bluff at all and only 4-bet KK+ for value....very rarely you gonna see AK or QQ. On the other side they often call way to loose ooP vs 3-bets like AJo KQo....

I kind of thought the same about the turn: not getting many folds of flop continuing range. Do you think we should check a lot on this turn in general or always go for value with QQ+ ?

Aug. 28, 2018 | 2:49 p.m.

check out „the mental game of poker“ - really good book IMO. Sounds a bit like mistake-tilt to me, but I‘m certainly not an expert.
As I already said, I think it’s a pretty bad river for your range so I‘d check all my hands and probably fold AA vs an allin bet. By betting out you can only get value from maybe AQ, but you do block that holding heavily.
Actually I lean towards checking the turn already.

Aug. 28, 2018 | 9:32 a.m.

Live 5/5 NL 8-handed.
Stacks: ~ 1K effective
Villain UTG1: Somewhat active young guy. Haven't seen to many hands so far. Would assume he's a decent reg.
Hero UTG2: 5h4h / 3bet range: (TT-99)50%, JJ+, AQs+, (AJo, KJs, ATs, A5s, A4s)50%, (54s-KQs)50%

Villain opens 20, Hero 3-bets 70, villain calls

Pot 150, Flop: 9d6d2s: V checks, H cbets 90, V calls
Pot 330, Turn: 9d6d2s7c: V checks, H cbets 240, V jams for ~850, H folds.

During the hand I was on the fence between betting an checking back the turn. Didn't really expect too many turn shoves from villain.
In hindsight I'd obviously prefer a check back, but which hands are we gonna bluff with turn instead? A5, JT.....can't come up with too many as with a lot of other holdings I'm unsure wether it's best to bet or check back like: T9, 98, 78.....

I know PIO likes to bluff some blockers like KJ, KQ and also Ax no flushdraw, but that just feels soooo "unnatural" to me - especially Ax-combos because it doesn't really block anything…... It does unblock flushdraws of course, but that's about it.

As far as turn sizing goes, I was just trying to have a "signifcant" stacksize behind on river. Pot ~800, stack ~600

Any thoughts welcome!

Aug. 27, 2018 | 7:04 p.m.

But how does my bluffing range here look like on the river assuming i use the indifferent playline on flop and turn .

If I did understand your preflop range correctly I would like to ask you what does your value range on the river look like, because if I'm not mistaken the flush got there on the river with the As. The way you described your preflop 3bet range it contains little to no flushes on that runout. Therefore I would probably start by checking that river almost always.

To make him indifferent of calling, i need a little less then 1/3 of
bluffs as he gets 28,5% potodds to call. Am I right here?

That's roughly correct in general, but doesn't really apply to this specific spot, because it's not a spot where you have a lot of nut-type hands and your opponent has mostly blufcatchers.

Asking the right questions is an art

Giving the right answers too - hope this was helpful at all.

Aug. 27, 2018 | 6:20 p.m.

I totally agree with previous postings. Turn and River is just fine.
On the flop this AK combo is probably a mix between betting and checking, however if you decide to c-bet I would choose a much smaller sizing than V2 did in order to have some room to maneuver on turns and rivers vs their already relatively short stack sizes.

Aug. 22, 2018 | 10:15 a.m.

I'm usually not posting any one-liners, but that's just a no brainer call. sorry mate!

Aug. 21, 2018 | 9:22 a.m.

Preflop:
Since you said villain is basically never folding to 3-bets, you don't really accomplish much by 3-betting other than building a bigger pot ooP with what is most likely a very marginal hand postflop! So while squeezing TT in general might be fine(still on the loose side vs UTG1 open) I would stay away from it in this spot. 3betting TT is more appealing if villain is likely to fold hands like KJ, KQ, Ax,...
Flop:
Fine. We should do a lot of checking on this board in general, especially with no hearts.
Turn:
Usually a fold, but obv not against this weird super small sizing.
River:
Pretty interresting spot as he overbets and you're blocking the straight heavily while not blocking any flushdraws. Alltough I would assume he is betting flushdraws bigger on turn.
The question is, did he overbet rivers before and if yes - how polarized were his holdings?

All in all I lean more towards fold, because obviously you have way better hands, in terms of hand strength to call with, and without any specific reads it looks a lot like two pair or set, that failed to build a pot earlier and is now trying to make up for it buy overbetting, to me.

Aug. 19, 2018 | 2:22 p.m.

Ok, I think I do understand the action now. I guess on flop it should say: MP folds not HJ folds ;-)

Anyway…
Preflop: against the lag guy calling Ah7h pre is fine I think.
On the flop however I think 3 way you have a very easy check back. By betting you don't really accomplish much IMO and you'll have to fold your mitddle pair(which is the best hand quiet often) if you get raised.

As played: Clear checkback on turn. Villains range now consists of many two pairs, pair +SD, or straight. Of course, you might be able to bluff him of some Qx Hands, but you have much better hands to do so without any showdown value - mainly T9 and T8.

River: Generally a give up. Alltough if you know villain very well and he's likely to raise all his two pair+ on the turn and will never check a straight to you on the river - you could maybe go for the exploit jam on the river to make him fold all his Qx hands.

All in all I think you should have played a much smaller pot with your holding ;-)

Aug. 6, 2018 | 2:51 p.m.

I feel like you messed up the hand history preflop or maybe I just don't get it. Are you the open raiser in that hand? and whats your position, MP or HJ?

Aug. 4, 2018 | 2:06 p.m.

Very in depht and sound analysis on your part. Once we're on the turn in that hand I'm on bord with your thoughts, but betting the flop with little to no equity into 3 Players is very questionable for me to say the least. It's very likely that someone flopped an A or a flushdraw or pair+FD…. in other words: it's highly unlikely to get 3 folds here.
You described BB an UTG as pretty loose, SB most likely isn't solid either when he cold calls from SB. So I see no reason for beeing balanced or thinking too much about game theory against this type of players.
IMO betting flop with AT+, most FDs and the best straight draws (BDFD) using a bigger sizing like 90 should be the most profitable way to go. If you wanna add some more bluffs I would go with 7x combos blocking at least some of their continuing range and giving yourself a lot more EQ than 55.
Add all your weak Ax combos as well as Jx and some FDs into your checkback range to be "somewhat" protected. However you won't get exploited having a weak checkback range multiway ever in those games!

-> I know that was a lot of flop-analysis but thats the only part where I see room for improvement in that hand. As played, I like the river bluff occasionally.

July 10, 2018 | 1:21 p.m.

Sure, if you 4-bet small pre with AK and miss flop it sucks, but here is where being balanced is very important even against weak players. Mostly checking A high flops is mandatory in such spots IMO.
Getting it in preflop seems very appealing and convenient, but don't you think you'll "help" villain making a lot of good folds with AJ,AT, KQ, + some random hands.....however if he flops a pair with thoose hands he will always pay you off.

June 25, 2018 | 9:57 a.m.

I think preflop sizing is absolutely fine for explained resaons. Could even go sligthly smaller 70-75 to have a better SPR on flop and maybe induce a shove from villain more often.
Flop: check back is standard of course.
Turn: I would treat his bet as an effectve allin(110) when it comes to figuring out what percentage you have to defend. Now the question becomes how many Ax you gonna 4bet pre in that specific situation and how many of them gonna check back flop. I personally would checkback all non-AK combos on the flop in that specific spot and of course AA.
Now even if you feel like defending KK here is necessary, because you might not have enough Ax, choosing combos that don't block all the draws is probably better….even QcQh seems like a better call to me.

June 18, 2018 | 7:28 a.m.

I can see where you're coming from with this approach and in some 2/5(even 5/10) live games that's probably the most profitable gameplan, but I feel like the question here is way to general to come up with a solution as simple and exploitable as yours.
At the end of the day we are playing 200bb effective here. So if you choose to only 4bet AA and KK you gonna get some serious problems vs half way decent regs on various board textures.

June 13, 2018 | 10:22 a.m.

hi shorshi!
To get this one started, I'm gonna give you my thoughts without doing any deep analyzes.
Hero 4bet range something like: AKs, QQ+(alltough I would flat QQ sometimes as well) A5s,A4s,(Maybe KQo/AJo - alltough I prefer the suited Ax in deep situations a lot and would rather add ATs for example) and then suited connectors, deepending on you opening range, 76s-JTs at a low frequency.
Villains range: crucial question here is if villains range is somewhat capped if he doesn't 5-bet or not? I would play my hole range as a flat in his shoes because I feel like 5-bet bluffing is very hard to do with given stack sizes and playing the hand in position probably much more profitable anyway. From my experience though a lot of weaker live regs "always" get it in with KK and sometimes trap AA for example.
Anyway I would say a reasonable range would be something like TT+,AQs+,AKo, and suited connectors that he choose to 4bet.

Flop: Feels like this is one of the worst possible flops for Hero, so I would start by checking range, alltough I think cbet 100% 1/3 pot as 4-bettor can never be too bad.

Looking forward to your insights!

June 12, 2018 | 9:07 a.m.

As you already mentioned, flatting preflop is questionable and I personally think you should stay away from it. 4-Bet or fold is the way to go I think, alltough I understand the benefits of playing a hand with the rec player involved, but what really good can happen? Most of the time you'll miss and give up…...and let's say you flop the naked flushdraw 3way ooP and BU c-bets…...all of a sudden you'r forced to play a high variance spot vs reg and the fact that rec-player is in the hand doesn't help you at all.
As played preflop, I think postflop is played very well! River is just the most annoying card in the deck. From my experience in those games you'll be beat most of the time. From a theory standpoint I think it only matters how you gonna play your nut flushdraws AQ (AJ,AT,A5,....I assume you call them pre as well) andI guess you'll peel the flop with backdoorflushdraws AQ-AT, A5,A4 as well. To sum it up: if you don't have a raising range on the flop, you'll have more than enough better Ax to call river. If you do raise flop with some of those hands it's probably very close.
Last thing I wanna mention is, I don't see a lot of "natural" 3-barrel bluffs on this texture so you should really ask yourself: is this guy able to find (enough) bluffs here?

June 10, 2018 | 7:49 a.m.

Hand is played fine I think, besides sizing, which I think is a little bit off. I don't think you wanna c-bet that board 100% range vs two opponnents ooP. So the times you do c-bet you should use bigger sizing around 40-45.....this would leave you with allin only as your 3-bet sizing and makes much more sense in General. Also I can see some merits in check raising the flop sometimes…….alltough preferably on boards with a FD!

May 31, 2018 | 9 p.m.

first of all thanks for your reply.
I have AK, QQ+ (the exact holding doesn't really matter).....the only question is how to continue with that exact range.
88-JJ,AQ and many more hands I would obv flat.
As far as my 4-betting range goes, you can't really disagree with me because thats just what I would do in that exact spot ;-)…..only 4-betting value Ak,QQ+

May 29, 2018 | 6:18 p.m.

Pretty deep stacked 2/5 NLH Live Game

Hero UTG 1,8K
Villain MP 2K

Hero opens to 20, villain 3-bets to 60, CO(weaker Reg 1,5K) flats, SB(old Lady 400-600) flats as well, Hero 4-bets to 240, villain 5-bets to 580, other Players fold.
Action back to Hero: With the Lady in the small blind beeing relatively short and villain not folding too much there, I will not have a 4-bet bluffing range here. Which means my 4-bet range is exactly AK, QQ+

So what do you guys think is the best approach vs his 5-bet? IMO there a two reasonable options:

1: flatting all hands - alltough SPR on flop is going to be around 1, I still feel like this Player type is going to make some costly mistakes….
2: 6-bet jam KK+ and AKs, folding QQ and AKo

...any other ideas on that spot are highly appreciated

May 25, 2018 | 10:25 p.m.

Comment | JACKraceLUKE commented on 2.5-.2-5 Live

3-bet pre vs late open is fine as long as you don't 3-bet all your offsuit broadways everytime.
I would checkback turn, since villains range is flushes and pocket pairs mainly and some Ax occasionally. Most of the time you gonna be way ahead or way behind i would think and there are no real bad river cards for you, except maybe an offsuit A.
To sum it up: You never gonna get three streets of value from worse, so strengthening you checkback range seems the way to go!

May 23, 2018 | 11:01 p.m.

Comment | JACKraceLUKE commented on 2.5-.2-5 Live

Alltough your hand seems like a good checkback on the flop, I would c-bet 100% 1/3 pot on most boards as the 3-bettor. Especially on dry boards like that. Since your range will contain more strong hands(overpairs+top set). On the turn however I think the hand is a great checkback with your flushblocker(draw) you gonna have an easy call on most rivers and this way you protect your Ax hands that you might checkback on turn as well.
As played it's kind of an awkward spot since I guess it's one of your best hands, except maybe an occasional slowplayed top set, or KQ if you Play that the same way. Problem is I don't see too many offsuit Ad hands in villains range preflop that he could now turn into a bluff. So I kind of lean towards an exploit fold, alltough in theory I think you "have to" call and play rivers

May 22, 2018 | 9:28 p.m.

preflop is standard alltough I would advocate for bigger sizing around 5x.
Flop check is fine, after UTG bets the question becomes how many Ax do you really have in your range, since AK schould be a c-bet almost always. If you have a decent amont of AQ, and some A5s, A4s, maybe AJo you might be able to fold QQ there especially three way since BU will defend some of the time when UTG bets. I would be very surprised if UTG starts bluffing with a PP right on the flop and I don't see many natural bluffs on this board texture and of course he has a ton of Ax combos. Somewhat reasonable bluffs would be something like KQs/QJSs - unfortunatly you block those combos pretty heavily.
As played river is just a fold imo!

May 1, 2018 | 9:35 p.m.

I don't really see how we can be exploited by x/raising when we bet a merged range on the turn with smaller sizing, but I guess we have a totally different approach to that spot anyway, because I would certainly bet all the pocket pairs for protection/ EQ denial on the flop.

April 26, 2018 | 9:21 p.m.

ok, that's what figured and of course it does make sense to me. I guess you gonna value bet most of them again on a blank river, but don't you think it's kind of problematic to have such a capped range with that line? Thats actually why I would prefer to bet a much wider range with smaller sizing on the turn.....but maybe "no one" is ever gonna exploit us by check raising the river a lot anyway and I'm just over thinking it?!?

April 25, 2018 | 9:57 p.m.

are you using 2 different betsizes on that turn?
if not: what's your plan with all the Tx hands in your range?

April 25, 2018 | 8:07 p.m.

I lean a little bit more towards flatting on the flop with the whale in the hand just because I think you would flat most of your straight draws as well. Raising is certainly fine if you balance it out with JTs, T9s, 65s - alltough I think you shouldn't be flatting that preflop from early Position vs UTG open.
Anyway, I see no reason to slow down on the turn as the T is generally a better card for your range. I think you don't have to size to big in that spot, 1/2 -2/3 pot should be fine and puts villain in a very tough spot with his overpairs and sets up an easy river jam.

April 24, 2018 | 8:05 p.m.

"Most spots I think we should be betting bigger when turn barreling" - why?

"Technically, only I know that I am not bluffing enough there..." - if you would be completely unknown to me and I see you taking this line I would automatically asume your under bluffing a lot, unless proven otherwise... just because it's very hard to find enough bluffs in that spot using an overbet!
Actually I think your sizing makes it very easy for villain to fold most of his Tx on the turn without getting exploited.

April 24, 2018 | 7:49 p.m.

Not a big fan of turn sizing, especially since you admit not having a lot of bluffs if any at all! To be honest I think it's even worse to do so when you'll just never have the nuts in that spot. So it's kind of weird if you polarize your range, get raised and your range only consists of "value" but at the same time never having the nuts!

However I think you just can not fold 44 here, If your assumptions on villain are somewhat correct we could probably fold 22 in that spot, but never 44 I think. In general I would never fold if there is a small but realistic chance of beating some of Villains value bets/raises.

April 23, 2018 | 6:58 p.m.

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