On the five-diamond board, shouldn't our split for bluffs be unblocking the K, since the most frequent no-diamond betting hands in our opponent's range will have a K in them? Given how easy it is to have one diamond in your x/c range and how hard it is to have 0, I wouldn't be surprised if we just bluff all Qx.
July 28, 2020 | 11:36 p.m.
I think it's important how you expect me to size my bets when you check here. It seems a lot easier for me to put chips in thinly with an optimistic bluff with some pair+draw hand than an optimistic call, but I'm not sure if you lose more value from getting a smaller bet in vs my worse value hands than you gain by picking off bluffs with pairs.
May 24, 2014 | 7:56 a.m.
The problem with MTTs (in addition to playing with lots of different people and not the same regs all the time) is that they aren't consistent. You are really playing several different poker games, so you have hands from, for instance, pre-ante full-ring deep, post-ante full-ring deep, pre-ante full ring shallow, post-ante full ring shallow, pre-ante shorthanded deep, post-ante shorthanded deep, pre-ante shorthanded shallow, post-ante shorthanded shallow, and then bubble and FT play in all of those when villain is short, medium, and deep stacked. There is simply no way to filter for relevant hands on the fly, so, while you can get a general sense of whether someone is tight or loose, your sample is a) distorted heavily by changing game conditions and b) never going to reach a relevant size for any one of those game conditions before the metagame changes significantly.
Feb. 18, 2013 | 7:58 a.m.
Feb. 12, 2013 | 11:33 a.m.
B/decide turn, it's a good card for your range so he can't really x/r that much and he has a bunch of hands with 10+ outs that you need to get value from. I'm going back and forth on folding or continuing if he x/r, on the one hand he shouldn't be x/r much since your range is so strong and he reps so narrow, on the other hand a lot of his diamond draws have enough equity that they're pretty likely to GII on the flop OOP. Who the BB is is pretty important here, and I've never played with villain, so you'd know better than me how frequently he flats vs 3b his AdMd and AdLd hands.
Feb. 8, 2013 | 6:40 a.m.
Feb. 8, 2013 | 6:35 a.m.
Feb. 6, 2013 | 2:08 a.m.
I think you can just bet an amount that he feels uncomfortable raising his draws over/comfortable calling them. I'd either go with the livepro classic 10600, or 10K straight. They're big enough to keep your range looking strong and small enough for him to peel with marginal draws. He's also probably seeing the river with all his Jx and Qx hands. Bomb every river and expect him to fold >60% of his range to a 3/4 PSB.
Sure, it sucks when he x/jams turn, but I find it incredibly unlikely that it costs us more equity than 7.5 BBs
Feb. 5, 2013 | 8:21 p.m.
Jan. 31, 2013 | 8:48 a.m.
I would be shocked if shoving the A2o shows a greater profit than r/f against this player for 13 BBs, same with the QJo. While shoving those hands might be optimal against someone with a wide GII frequency I think you can happily chuck hands that marginal into your r/f range against someone that is never getting in K9o etc. given the circumstances. You later r/f 45s with similar stacks to the QJo hand, but I'm pretty sure against this player's calling range they won't have significantly different equity.
Jan. 26, 2013 | 12:36 a.m.
Jan. 22, 2013 | 10:21 p.m.
Jan. 17, 2013 | 8:42 a.m.
All that being said, he sounds like an idiot and you have a pair higher than all of the cards on the board and you lose to 18 combos plus random 7x so I wouldn't fault you for calling down (plus extra bullets make everyone extra stupid!)
Jan. 16, 2013 | 6:05 a.m.
Jan. 16, 2013 | 5:54 a.m.
Jan. 14, 2013 | 6:59 p.m.
Jan. 13, 2013 | 11:57 p.m.
When you had JTo in the SB vs Amak, you spoke a lot about possible pre-flop permutations, but earlier in the video you mentioned that Amak is very capable postflop. What do you think the expected value of the permutations where he flats is? What sort of range do you think he's continuing with when you lay him >4:1 here to peel one off?
Jan. 7, 2013 | 10:51 p.m.
At around 20 minutes you flop top 2 with no redraws on K75 two-tone. You spend a lot of time talking about the turn bet size but didn't say much about betting a little less than half pot on the flop. Can you discuss your flop sizing a bit please?
Jan. 7, 2013 | 8:48 p.m.
Jan. 7, 2013 | 8:24 a.m.
What do you think of the merits of x/r/f? Villain has a pretty wide range of SD + 2 overs hands that are getting pretty close to the correct price to peel when we bet this size, especially when 89 is going to bluff us on a K river. I'd expect a lot of floats to bet and shrug-fold turn because his range has a lot of Qx in it. Are we costing ourselves too much against his Qx/stubborn Tx hands and giving up too much equity when he decides to check back K9?
Jan. 7, 2013 | 8:20 a.m.
While you're losing the chance to get a bet trapped if fish c-bets and Dom calls, I think you're losing that value by handcuffing both players by being the third man into that spot, whether it's calling or raising.