Did not play a lot of hands last week and the results are still meeeeh still up and down cant seem to get a good upswing again that lasts for a few weeks. Anyway time to study my played hands a bit more again as I failed to make time for that.
Aug. 16, 2019 | 7:13 a.m.
Villain is on MP and thus not folding a lot on 3 bets can still mean a narrow range depending on how wide he opens from MP and how much villain is folding.
If villain does not fold a lot to 3 bets that would make me want to bet QQ as villain will more likely have a missed pair or some Jx in his hand then a set and villain will call a flop bet with that. Also QQ can use some protection as it is the worst overpair and if the turn is an A or a K you are in a very difficult spot.
As the flop is dry would bet small but your OOP so betting a bit bigger then 1/3 pot. ~ 1/2 pot is the size that I would go for.
The turn is basically a brick (villain calls 3 bet wide but does villain call and open from MP with 8x?) or even better make that villain is less likely to have a set. So would bet out on turn (if I bet the flop) otherwise would check call.
River now it is interesting only T9s and sets beat your hand and villain is not likely to take this line with 77 so will disregard 77. Villain can have 4xT9s, 3xJJ, 1x88 and 3x66 making 11 combos that beat your hand. As villain calls with T9s I will assume that he will call with all suited broadways and with J9s+ (will disregard AKs as that is most of the time 4bet) so that leaves AJcc, ATcc, A9cc, KJcc, KTcc, K9cc, JTcc, J9cc or 8 combos of missed flush draws. So you win to 8 and loose to 11 and thus you have 8/19 ~ 42% equity. So under this assumptions it is a clear call.
To have a better understanding about the equity a worst and best case scenario is a good way to proceed when using flopzilla and then try to find something more in the middle that fits on villains tendencies
Things to consider:
- Is villain passive or aggressive
- Does villain float bet a lot and does he follow up on float bets (aggressive)
- What about his QTs, Q9s gutshot hands how will villain play those
- Does villain win a lot at showdown
Aug. 11, 2019 | 7:23 a.m.
Looked into the 3/4/5 betting and discovered that I need to tone down my 4 betting strategy as most players are 3 betting to tight and thus call or 5 bet my 4 bets to much. Only against specific players a polarized 4 betting range makes sense.
Looked also into c betting and will go for a more 'GTO' balanced approach and a bit skewing to cbetting more then needed (both in frequency as size) as it seems that the player pool is overfolding against c-bets.
List to work on:
- SB Defense
- 3/4/5 Betting
- FISH and NIT spotting and adjusting accordingly opening up if there are FISH or NITS on the SB/BB as I want to play FISH IP and NITs just fold to much
Lot to work on :)
Results are ok still experiencing swings in results but the latest swings at least can be explained as me 4 betting to much against the player pool and even if is GTO and thus ok-ish will loose against rake if I don't exploit the players that just are 3 betting to tight by just only value 4 bet and calling with playable hands and folding the rest (no bluffing). Anyway here are the results till now.
Aug. 10, 2019 | 9:12 a.m.
In a 3Bet pot would def CBet on a J-high board as you also have J's in your range. Besides I guess you still have a (NUT) range advantage here as you have all JJ+ in you range and most villain will not have them all in their range.
Would size to about 50-60% to get more folds and bet my entire range on this board. Yes theoretically it is a mistake but most players have a to high fold to cbet in 3 bet pot (only if villains stats show me otherwise ofc then I might not cbet here).
Aug. 6, 2019 | 9:30 a.m.
For a squeeze it is not large but squeezes in itself are larger three bets and as it is a squeeze against 3 players it is even larger that makes that your SPR will be smaller postflop and thus your implied odds will be smaller and suited and connectors rely on implied odds.
As I don't know how you construct you ranges I don't know if QJs falls in the 15% of the range you want to defend with. Al I can say that I would not put QJs in your defense range as it is to easily dominated by the villains 3 bet range (AQ,AJ,KQ) and in smaller SPR pots suited connectors loose value.
Aug. 2, 2019 | 8:04 p.m.
My confusion is how to develop calling/4bet/folding ranges here, when
That's a big question and not to be answered easily.
As for the play one could indeed 3Bet QJs although villain defends 60% against 3Bets so you wont have the fold equity but together with the equity of QJs and position it is good 3Bet hand against MP having said that calling is normally also ok. Having an aggressive 3 better in the BB makes me believe that 3 betting yourself here is actually better.
As to the squeeze the villain in the BB has a high 3 Bet percentage wonder what the 3Bet squeeze percentage is but for that you will need more hands.
Against a reasonable wide range QJs is perfect as a call against a 3 bet if the 3 bet is not to big. Here the 3 bet is rather big meaning that the SPR will not be that big and your implied odds diminish. As you did not 3 bet preflop 4 betting now will be suspicious so would just fold.
You call and villain bets on the flop. Would fold as you did as the A is very good for villains range and not that good for yours (you did not 3 bet preflop so you should not have a lot of A with a good kicker in your range).
As for the defense frequency you actually are with 3 persons that defend against the BB squeeze and as MP prob has the best range he should defend the most such that BB can not squeeze profitable with any 2 cards. BB raised puts 0.26 extra in the pot to win in total 0.43 so in order to have an immediate profit with any 2 cards BB needs to get folds from all three 26/43 ~ 60% meaning that if all off you defend evenly one should defend (1-defense%)^3 ~ 0.6 meaning that (1-defense%) ~ 85% so defense% ~ 15% if I am correct. This is ofc just a global calculation as BB will have some equity with any two cards if you don't 4 bet (and even if 4 bet he can use some 5bet bluffs to balance his value 5 bets) and also MP should defend more in this case then you and the SB. So in this case defending about 15% of your range should be about correct.
Aug. 2, 2019 | 4:03 p.m.
I am back :). Broken the trend and winning again feels good. My redline is also up again as it should be lol.
Was looking into my stats on the late positions and 3 betting mostly as that's the area where I feel that most can be gained.
As for the stealing I guess > 60% on both SB as BTN is ok :)
Defending against steals
Defense in the BB looks ok to me. In the SB however there is much room for improvement as I guess I should call less and can 3 bet more. Will have a closer look into what is going on with my SB defense as it can be multiple things such as people are just not stealing enough meaning that I don't have to defend a lot or that they are generally raising big also meaning that I don't have to defend so much.
Defending against 3 bets
Seems that I tend to overfold in some spots especially in the SB and BTN I wonder if I have a leak there or that people are just not enough 3betting and thus I don't have to defend so much against them.
'New' List of things still to work on:
Folding this is though one for me and I regularly fall back to calling to much
SB Defense instead of BB Defense
3-4-5 Betting going better but still need work especially defending against 3 bets
Aug. 2, 2019 | 12:38 p.m.
Against his range would ditch some of the low off-suit Aces till e.g. A8o as Aces against his range will be dominated a lot might choose to 3 bet those depending on what you have already in your 3 bet bluff range as they contain a prime blocker ofc this depends on his fold to 3 bet if its high then just add more bluff if it is low then use a more linear 3 betting range.
Against this type of villain would be extremely nitty as his low RFI% from the button might actually make that villain is pretty nitty postflop. As the flop is so good for his range would 'overfold' on this flop. It is actually not over-folding as on other boards you will 'over-defend' which makes that over all possible flops your still balanced !
On the flop would just call no need to raise him with any hand other then perhaps two pair balanced with some BDFD bluffs that you otherwise would fold and still have some other equity QTs,JTs,Q9s,J9s plenty to choose from. But even two pair on this board against this villain can easily be second best so I personally would not raise them for value against this villain but see them as a medium strength hand.
On the turn however would take control and XR with this hand. If villain has a hand that can value bet three streets villain will most likely call and this nitty type of villain is not likely to three bet bluff a lot even on a board this good for his range. When villain calls you can bet out on the river. If you must be balanced you need to call with some off all
Aug. 2, 2019 | 10:55 a.m.
For me it is more quality instead of more volume. I also believe that that is the best way to improve your game and you can put more thought in your hands. I also baked into my routine to not play more then 1 hour at a time and then take at least a 10 minute brake most of the time it means that I take a brake of 2 hours or so lol. Choose specific topics to focus on nothing to fancy is needed at start. For me it is:
- BB Defense
- 3/4/5 Betting
I also watch some youtube videos on cash games CrushlivePoker which I find both relaxing and educative and learns me to play better flop/turn/river.
I play 50NLz and still I am not going past basic concepts I am still learning to implement them correctly and consistently.
I still don't touch solvers as I find that having a good understanding of poker math is much more important to play the small stakes then to learn from solvers. It's more about making less big mistakes as my opponents do as they still make plenty then to play perfect GTO.
Motivation can be a problem for me also but playing less tables and thus playing more quality poker makes that I am more relaxed make less mistakes. Making less mistakes also makes that you will tilt less and be more relaxed.
Aug. 1, 2019 | 11:30 a.m.
Don't play long sessions (1 hour max) and prefer quality over quantity (less tables at a time).
Find out your weaknesses and fix them one at a time.
Have a base strategy against and make that your own. Have a base strategy to play against the different type of players (tight-passive, tight-aggressive, loose-passive, loose aggressive).
Aug. 1, 2019 | 7:19 a.m.
It is not about variance only it is about what your actual win-rate is it uses Bayesian statistics with the assumption that most players win rate are around -8 BB due to rake and as hero has measured win rate of 10 BB it gives the win-rate the hero should expect based on Bayesian statistics.
e.g. when you toss a coin and it comes up heads 4 times in a row it will tell you what the probability is that the coin is rigged/balanced or not and how rigged/balanced it is given the prior that normal coins are not rigged and that there is a 50% chance that it is heads or tail.
July 31, 2019 | 2:33 p.m.
That variance calculators is assuming that your actual winrate is 10bb/100 which is unlikely
given that the sample size is only 1k hands.
A better approach is to first calculate your most probable win rate using bayesian statistics see http://www.whatsmywinrate.com/.
And then use a variance calculator to get your confidence interval.
In any case a sample size of 1k hands is to low so say anything useful and actually still your most likely a loosing player according bayesian statistics (this assumes that you have no advantage over other people that start playing poker and as you at least are interested more then the average John Doe you have a better chance to be above average).
July 31, 2019 | 10:18 a.m.
I like the raise on the flop but would size down a bit and choose a sizing that gets almost as much folds but is just a smaller investment something between 2/3 and full pot or 13-18 BB if I am correct.
After villain calls the flop what hands do you put him on?
Draws (you block flushdraws and you have the Ac so those are not likely.
99, 88, JTo/JTs, T9o/T9s, 98o/98s, 87o/87s but also lot of other hands that are only one pair hands, but still which ones will call your big raise on the flop?
Turn is a blank you bet again so now most of his weak one pair hands should fold
River would just give up what hands can he have after your Flop and Turn aggression that will fold to a 2/3 pot bet.
July 30, 2019 | 5:36 p.m.
As for the 4-bet range why you choose to include more A6s-A8s and less A2s-A5s is that a recommended strategy by some coach? I always thought that A2s-A5s has more nut flopping capabilities because of the straight possibilities and therefor would include more of those instead of the A6-A8s.
I would never assume that regs will 5-bet AK even CO vs BTN as some will only 5-bet AA/KK/AKs for some % and just call with AKo
July 30, 2019 | 5:19 p.m.
Isn't there a Raise First In (RFI) in HM as that is the easiest way and then create a report for all players and include position. Export the report import in Excel or Google Sheets and then use the Sheets functionality to create the report that is what I do with Poker Tracker (and I only include players with #hands > ....
Oh and don't forget to exclude your own hands.
July 30, 2019 | 4:59 p.m.
What is your open range and 4-bet range if you 4-bet A6s are you 4-betting all Axs? Don't think that A6s should be 4-betted at all.
K-high board and you have a flush draw so c-betting is ok but on this type of board and OOP would bet bigger like 1/2-2/3 pot (would try to get folds now and then check-fold turn if not enough equity)
Given that you block the flush draws and villain called what range do you think villain has now?
Due to small c-bet barreling small again is ok.
July 29, 2019 | 8:51 p.m.
Why you think hes a weak reg? And what is a weak reg is your opinion as that can mean lots of things only being low stacked means not mean that much he can be tight/loose passive/aggressive
Your 3 bet is quite large from the BB and villain calls so would not give him J9 nor Kx except KJs+ and KQo and maybe KTs
Flop is very good for villains range and your range. You check villain bets and you call.
Would fold on flop you only have a weak pair on a KQ8 rainbow board in a 3-bet pot so almost no outs and only a bluff will get the job done and villain might have a good hand that will not fold. Just let go of your preflop 3-bet bluff hand.
Turn checked through.
River yes villain is likely to only have one pair but probably that is AK and perhaps KTs. AK will most likely call any bet as you checked twice and hes blocking KK and AA and there are much more AK then KT so would just check-fold.
July 29, 2019 | 8:38 p.m.
The river card is really bad one to a straight and 3 of the same suit a lot of possible two pair are also possible now.
It is a 3-bet pot and villain called so that makes broadway cards and middle pairs 88-QQ more likely then hands like T9s or 98s or A7s. Lets assume that AKs and QQ+ is 4 betted by villain and that villain calls with all suited broadways and all AKo and all 77-JJ
You bet villain calls given that the flop contains T9 it will connect somewhat with villain hands so would say that all AKo, and all suited broadway with BDFD of FD and that all suited broadways with a T will make the call and all QJs will make the call and that 88-JJ will also call or raise.
You bet villain calls would guess that AKo will be folded and that all suited hands of spades and clubs will call as will all ATs and QJs. Would say that sets most of the time will raise now as there are spades and clubs that could make that there is no further action.
So villains range could look something like:
JJ (6 combos), ATs (3 combos of which one is AcTc), AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, QJs (2 combos), and perhaps some TT, 99, 88 that did not raise on turn nor on flop lets say 20% or ~ 2 combos.
You beat 11 combos of which 8 might call your raise and your beat by 8 combos.
Lets assume that all ATs and JJ call.
You will loose 8x$6 and win 3x$12.6 and 8$18.6 => ~ $139/19 ~$7.3
Lets assume villain will bet all his flushes and all his missed flush-draws (3 combos) and his sets and straights and checks JJ and ATs (most villains will not bluff so much but those villains might not call with all BDFD either)
You win 8$12.6 (villain checks you win) and 3$18.6 and loose 8$6 => ~ $109/19 ~ $5.7
b) Check-Fold (becomes better if villain does not bluff enough)
You win 8*$12.6 and fold 11 times => ~ $101/19 ~ $5.3
Given the small difference and the high amount of included bluffs if check then would go for check-fold !
A lot of assumptions but would say that your line is OK against an unknown.
July 29, 2019 | 8:16 p.m.
Although villains line look strong it would be strange if villain has Th7h, QhTh is a probablity but so is AhJh. Villain can easily overvalue two pair (AJ 9 combos, J8s? ) in this spot or he could have a better set such as JJ or 88 (JJ could be 3 bet by villain so that also is not that likely. It is a pot sized bet on river from villain so you need to be good 1 in 3 now depending on the player pool this could be even a clear call.
July 29, 2019 | 7:10 p.m.
Although deep stacked would just fold QTs there are not many players that bluff 4 bet enough
You now have top pair and villain checked would throw a bet in and hope villain folds.
Another ♦ came which is not good for you but would call as you have top pair and flop went check check.
Just check back. Hoping that villain (a reg) has a worse pair with an unsuited A of ♦ is very very speculative as villain did 4-bet. And even is villain is capable of 4-betting A7o and A5o he could also have KQo, AQo and QJo that beat your hand so still if villain is very very loose would just check back.
July 29, 2019 | 7 p.m.
Good to see your dealing better with variance in game.
Would also suggest to not play 2 hours straight would max it to one hour with a at least 10 minute break. Stand up do some small exercise to get the blood circulating etc.
July 29, 2019 | 8:05 a.m.
As the board is not that good would check 100% to simplify my strategy as that gives more defense possibilities for checking range.
That means that I will check-call with all TX hands and all overpairs and all A4s and all AKs with BDFD and check-raise with TT and QJs with BDFD (blockers to QTs and JTs and three to a straight)
If I am correct => total defense of 47 combos of 83 combos or 57% meaning that villain can still bet any 2 when I raise but he will at least get check-raise some times.
Above was my first thought after seeing the figures and outcome could start to add some JTs/T9s with BDFD (blockers to XT and BDFD) to my check-raising range in order to make raising any 2 less profitable.
July 28, 2019 | 7:06 p.m.
It was just a matter of time before software like Pluribus was build as the knowledge to build such software was there already for a long time the focus was just on other games like chess, go, dota etc (yes I know that these are games with complete information and poker isn't).
The major problem arises when software like Pluribus is ready available for a lot of fraudsters that cant build the software themselves. Those fraudsters will of course try to get money out of it and the poker sites will try to catch them.
As long as the poker sites earn big dollars they will try to catch them as it is in there long term best interest to catch those using this kind of software. As long as poker sites are somewhat transparent meaning that also the general public can catch these bots they are even more inclined to spot the bots before the general public does.
Both sides will improve gradually over the coming years and as the poker sites will try to protect their investments and have more money then the fraudsters I guess they will be able to combat the fraudsters for a long time to come.