Don't think you could have a better bluff catcher then your hand here. You block flushes, straights and even top pair kinda hands. So if you want to bluff catch this is the hand to do it with.
In general though people don't bluff enough so folding the river cant be to bad compared with calling.
June 20, 2019 | 1:25 p.m.
You make an estimate or read a good book about poker. Or trial and error or make an educated guess as most people would. E.g. what 4bet % would you SB and BB give (I would give them like 3%) and subtract that figure from MDF. Also when OOP as is the case here assume that you mostly 4 bet and don't call a 3 bet, making that MDF holds up more.
So in this particular case I would estimate that you need to defend about 34% - 2 x 3% = 28% of the time with a 4 bet.
Choosing the % of bluff in your 4 bet is complicated as it would need to make the villain indifferent on his defense range to add bluffs. Could assume that villain 5 bets as defense and then you can calculate the EV of his bluffs (giving the fact that you fold yours). This will tell you how much bluffs you could add if villain 5 bets defense always.
Oh forgot about the removal effect that is also something to consider for all variations. SO if BTN 3 bets he will have a removal effect on SB and BB 4 betting range so the amount is less then 3%
Btw there are complete books written about poker theory if your interested I could recommend "APPLICATIONS of No-Limit Hold'em by Matthew Janda"
June 20, 2019 | 1:17 p.m.
MDF is for heads-up situations and then still if there no more betting rounds etc.
One does not have to defend here as if the situation is heads up. The BTN 3 bets and there are also the SB and BB that can 4 bet or call the 3 bet, so hero is not the only one that can punish the villain bluffs and thus MDF does not hold up at all in this situation.
June 20, 2019 | 9:18 a.m.
Would def not check-raise for the reason given by others.
Would bet out though on this board as preflop 3 better you have a range advantage and having two big overcards and a backdoor flush draw is sufficient for me to bet out for like 1/3-1/2 pot.
June 20, 2019 | 8:59 a.m.
Basically PokerSnowie open ranges are pretty good.
If your really uncomfortable with PokerSnowie suggested range then I would suggest to loose the for you most uncomfortable ones or just try them for like 50% of the time.
June 20, 2019 | 8:54 a.m.
You should not use MDF this way.
MDF is for situation where the range is so polarized that villain will win with all his value hands and loose with all his bluffs. That is by far not the case preflop and also not on the flop. MDF is good for river situations where the villain either bluffs or has a value hand. Meaning when you defend with the top X% of your range those hands will beat all his bluffs.
June 20, 2019 | 8:45 a.m.
Before GTO there was a rule saying never 'donk' into the preflop aggressor which is most of the time good practice due to range and position disadvantage on most boards.
As poker theory made progress and also because of GTO gave more insight in optimal play it is now more widely known that this rule is theoretically incorrect. This does not mean that not 'donking' in most situations is still the correct play or close to correct, certainly when the opponent is aggressive and will tend to bet almost 100% as some still do :)
June 19, 2019 | 3:02 p.m.
Bottom set is probably not good here it was a 4 way pot that got a lot of action so prob one of them has a better set or even a made straight. There is ofc still a reasonable chance that they both have draws but I don't think that given the action and the NIT profile you gave them that chance is big enough to make the call, would rather call with 98 blocking top two sets.
June 18, 2019 | 4 p.m.
SB should not have a lot of flushes as the K♦ is on the board already. There are only 3 combos of AA and one combo of KK that beat you + lets say 4 flushes so that's 8 combos that beat you (~0%). There are 6 AK combos (~50%) and there are 3 QQ♦ combos and 3 JJ♦ (11 outs => ~56%) combos that could make this play. You have about (8x0% + 6x50% +6x56%)/20 ~ 32% equity against that range think folding is correct here.
June 18, 2019 | 3:53 p.m.
Difficult to say without knowing how your random fish plays you identified them as fish so you are best equipped to know how they play. But normally I would not think most fish will turn an KQs on this board in a huge bluff (they only get called by better hands in this spot and perhaps nut flush draws which also have a lot of equity (13 outs) against KQs no diamonds). Be also aware that it is a multi way 3 bet pot making most players even fish play more straight forward.
Fish love to play suited connectors and if the fish is the agro type he might bet the flop aggressively with it but the passive fish will most of the time just call on the flop and only bet if they have a monster.
June 17, 2019 | 8:41 p.m.
If you decide to check-call turn then hoping for a T is not an option only 2 outs so would disregard that. If you check call your hand looks exactly like a medium strength hand. So villain should bet the river a lot in this situation to make you fold your medium strength hand.
So I either would call turn and then on any card T or lower which is not a spade call the river also. If the river is a spade you even have a chance that villain will give up on bluffs. So I think that calling turn is a valid option.
June 17, 2019 | 10:26 a.m.
You don't want to get 5 bet but you want to play OOP with JJ?
The flop is dry-ish does not connect well in a 3 bet pot so that villain checks does not mean a lot as he is supposed to check some very strong hands also.
The turn is a bet indeed as you don't want to give overcards nor a flush draw a free card. The bet could indeed be bigger.
River JJ is not a clear value bet in my opinion as it is beat by QQ+ and TT which the villain could play this way and it also beat by a flush. JJ beats hands like AK, AQ, KQ, KJ, KT, AT, ... but will they call a river bet or even 3 bet and call a turn bet? In my opinion you have an excellent bluff catcher as you block flushes so would rather check-call then bet-fold in this situation.
June 17, 2019 | 10:20 a.m.
Nut flush draws are not available AK only 6 of those and they did not 4 bet which makes them unlikely and if AK did not 4 bet will they 4 bet KK? The pot is multi way. The raise is huge (effectively allin as if called there is less then 1/4 pot bet left).
The combination of factors is such that folding with A♦ here is a good option against the average John Doe.
June 17, 2019 | 10:03 a.m.
Be aware that it also depends on you opponents!
If your opponents are mostly calling stations then it is normal to have a negative red line and a positive blue line as you should check fold your weak holdings against these type of players and only value bet them.
Beside enough blind stealing from CO and BTN I think less calling and more 3 betting is factor that directly influences your red line.
A positive red line is not a must for a winning poker player there are loads of poker players with negative red lines and positive blue lines.
June 17, 2019 | 7:20 a.m.
Btw MDF is not for preflop situations it is for situations where the hand is polar and hand value don't change (the river). Preflop the hands you play can still improve a lot if you hit the correct flop, turn or river.
When I see someone 3 betting so wide I would do anything to value own him. So I would just play more tight and open bigger preflop and hope he does not adjust to much. I also would 4 bet a ton as my opening range would be better then his 4 betting range. Ofc you should take care and watch out as you will take an exploitative approach meaning that if the villain adapts you should adapt also.
Would not overdo as that might make him aware to soon (before you can profit a lot) and adapt to you.
June 16, 2019 | 7:01 p.m.
Agree with Belrio on this given that the villain folded you most likely have him beat anyways and only get called by better hands then yours so there is nothing to gain from bluffing with top pair decent kicker.
June 16, 2019 | 3:40 p.m.
In general I would say people are capable of bluffing with the NUT flush blocker on these levels. Also some people might flip out when they have a very good hand (e.g. JT♠ on a board like this) and just blast away even if the board contains three of the same suit.
So in the end I think it is a close spot and I would find it difficult to fold on such a run out especially BB vs SB.
June 16, 2019 | 3:34 p.m.
In a multiway pot it is less important who was the preflop aggressor as the flop is checked through a lot so 'donking' is ok.
Be aware that hands must be generally better in multiway pots as more hands means more possibilities that someone has a better hand then yours.
Anyway don't think that you can lay down top two so if you where beat not much you can do as the money almost always will end up in the middle. Top two is just good enough in my opinion on this runout as your only by T9 exactly and sets and you expect to be called by overpairs and perhaps AQ and worse two pair then yours.
June 16, 2019 | 3:26 p.m.
Flop Don't mind calling with pair and back-doors.
Turn Two pair and villain raised now calling is +EV but is raising better here. What can villain have that will make raising more profitable then just calling? If villain folds a lot of hands that would bluff or bet on the river and only continues with a stronger hands then yours. Lot of Qx that can fold now :( on the other hand the strong hands villain can have are 2xQ3s, 2x Q6s, 1x Q5s, 3x 66, 3x 33 (I suppose that villain does not have QQ,74,42) Maybe 12x AQ (if that hand does not 3 bet). Think that there are more hands that you beat then that beat you in his continue range so raising is +EV but still that does not make it the best play. It all depends on how wide you think villain can be does he have Q3s-Q6s or is he calling with AQ and KQ etc then raising is prob better then just calling.
River Worst case villain has a very strong range here but still then your bet is about zero EV. Against a weaker range betting is +EV so betting river is certainly ok. Think going all in is against fish the best approach as that will be called quite often even by AQ if villain arrived with AQ here.
Think all in all you made a nice play (is high variance though) and if your read is correct that villain is a fish then it is the biggest +EV play in my opinion.
June 16, 2019 | 7:55 a.m.
It all depends on how wide you think he will call I agree that some might call with those but others will fold those so I would not count them all. Villain has 26/20 so not a NIT but also not too aggressive.
I e.g. would fold A2s-A3s and A6s-A9s preflop but that's me.
June 16, 2019 | 7:20 a.m.
Would indeed bet a bit bigger preflop now villain only needs to call a 1/2 pot sized bet and hes IP.
Think villain can make this play with 77,88,99,TT,J9s and ofc flushdraws. Having K♦ makes me think that folding is ok here as it blocks some obvious flush draws that sometimes bluff on the turn instead of the flop and also because your OOP.
I guess if you want to play GTO you should make the call here, but the player pool does not play anyway near GTO.
June 15, 2019 | 7:39 p.m.
The flop connects with a lot of 3 bet calls so although having a range advantage I would not expect a lot of fold other then from small pairs and suited connectors that completely missed. Still having A♥ and a gut-shot and a range advantage would still make me want to bet here.
Checking turn is fine as the turn card is a blank which did not improve your hand.
River card is J♥ making that aren't many broadway flushes left a ♥ below the 9 would be a much better ♥ to bluff on so think checking is ok. Also as the villain checked back on the turn he might actually have trips by now.
June 15, 2019 | 7:28 p.m.
On the river because you are so deep that another option is to bet fold your set. You prob get called by other sets (QQ and 77) and perhaps by AA♣ and may AQ and raised by the nut flush, those calling hands might not raise themselves. I wonder if that line is actually higher EV will prob be close as you don't have top set.
I guess hands better then JJ can almost all be bet for value and you could check e.g. two pair hands QJ and KK to be balanced. Your range on the river will prob be very condensed already not many (or even no) bluffs needed especially on this runout as all drawing hands made it.
The river is just a cooler think you played the hand correctly.
June 15, 2019 | 7:12 p.m.
Finally completed my BB Defense Strategy (not using GTO tools as I think that I don't need it on the stakes I play 50NLz). Think my next subject of attention is 3 betting and playing in 3 bet pots think I can 3 bet more aggressive in some spots, but for now I kept it easy just linear 3 betting on all positions giving me a 7% average 3 bet which is not as low as most NITS but I should certainly be more aggressive as I have the feeling that some are over-folding against 3 bets. So my next topic of investigation is 3 betting, defending against 3 bets and 3 bet pots. But the weather is good so won't put a lot of hours in at start as I also want to play some poker :).
Last week I did not play a lot and nothing new on that front (win-rate improved with 0.03 BB/100 lol).
June 15, 2019 | 6:47 p.m.
Its a 4 bet pot and UTG vs MP so ranges should be tight most of the time JJ+, AKo and AQs+ or even tighter. That villain 3 bets 16% does not necessarily mean that villain 3 bets wide on MP and certainly not that he calls 4 bet wide. So giving villain so many flush draws on turn is in my opinion an overestimate of his range.
Anyway in my opinion ranges are so tight and villains most of the time don't river bluff frequently enough it is a fold on the river.
June 15, 2019 | 12:37 p.m.
If he only folds 50% A4s is not a 3 bet hand would 3 bet linear (and maybe even only value hands) not polar against a 50% caller.
As you did 3bet betting flop is ok on almost all flops, this one however is not good for your 3 bet range. Would rather have two overcards on this board then your hand, but anyway being aggressive in a three bet is ok. Villain calls so he prob has something.
Turn would shut down as what did villain call with that will fold on this turn? If you get raised that would be awful. Would check-call almost any bet here as your draws are disguised.
River folding is the only option.