Would as suggested by others try to get allin on the turn so would size up on flop and go allin on the turn. Against most fish value betting and getting it all in as soon as possible is a sound strategy in my opinion.
River is close as the odds are just in your favor as you only have to be good 1:5 against a 33% pot bet to break even so I would make the hesitant call (some just go allin with AJ here as they won't fold it with this SPR same is true for QQ).
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:21 p.m.
This is most of the time a clue that someone is over calling so don't bluff those with under 50% w$sd to much. Of course 500 hands is not enough to be definitive but still it is an indication.
fcb: 47% | fcbt: 17% also an indication that hes overcalling still 500 hands means that the fcbt means not that much.
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:13 p.m.
If villain is a decent player he should in my opinion not bet out with flush draws a lot in a multi way limped pot. So his betting range can be even have more equity then your worst scenario where it includes all sets.
Still I would make the call preflop as you have position on the raise and an overpair and back door equity (flush and straight draw) and there is only one person left to act.
Turn is a deuce which is almost a blank so would make another call.
River is a 7 don't think that is a blank villain can be improved to a straight I know it is not that likely as you bock 98 but there is also the 54 which is an up and down straight draw. So the river is a close decision in my opinion and can be either a call or a fold.
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:09 p.m.
True forgot about the QJ, QT, JT with one diamond they can be turned into a bluff (saw solver doing that) but I imagine not may players do that on 50NL. Still QJ get there on the turn and QT and JT become a paired hand with a gutshot and will not always be bluffed I guess. Oh and hero is holding J of diamond.
Dec. 31, 2019 | 9:35 a.m.
Ah he had QdJd as that is no where stated :) If he has QJ of diamonds even then can't fault the play as he has an up and down straight draw (8 outs) + a flush draw (9 outs) two overlap so 15 outs or more then 30% so villain does not need to many folds here.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 10:33 a.m.
The diamond draw makes the situation more complex as both of you can play your value hands and your draws aggressively on this flop.
Villain can try to get you of a diamond draw or a weaker A (e.g. AJ or A9) by betting all his value hands and draws. Though I wonder if one should be as wide as even betting QJ which I suppose was not QdJd.
Btw what bluffs is he blocking with QJ ? Don't see (m)any bluffs that have a Q or J in them.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 10 a.m.
There are many ways to play AA in this situation and a solver will mix them so I don't think there is a best way (from GTO perspective).
Preflop: you gave the preflop raiser reasonable odds so he can call your 3 bet a bit wider then usual so would give villain a wider range then you suggest and would even include some JTs and 98s for a small percentage. Would also not give QQ, AKs, AKo 100% as they can be 4 bet preflop.
Flop think both check raising and betting out is ok. Villain btw can just call with his nut hands as SPR is about 1 and villain is IP so basically has pot control and can decide if he wants to go for it and jam or not.
Turn both betting small, jamming and checking can be ok here. I like to check-call though as that gives villain the opportunity to bluff. You check-call a small bet seems ok to me.
River villain now jams for 40% pot and gives you great odds to call in what now is a gross spot not a lot of villains are capable of bluffing on the river like this so can't fault the fold here but I would prob make the call as I am over calling to much.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 9:48 a.m.
Preflop the BB can be very wide as he just flats.
I wonder what bluff raises on the flop does villain have that don't beat your hand by the river as all flush draws get there and all value hands also so still beat your hand. So my gut feeling is that this a fold on the river (or perhaps even the turn) as you can't beat many bluffs.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 9:15 a.m.
Given his stats folds almost 70% to 3 bets and only a VPIP of 17 (and on MP prob even less) meaning that villain prob has a range of something like AA-99,AKs-AJs,AKo once he calls a 3 bet from MP. And as villain is none aggressive (AFq below 30%) villain will actually have prob zero bluffs. Given the fact that you also hold As taking away the really good bluff candidates would just fold your one paired hand. Villain just does not have 65s, 87s, KJs in a 3 bet pot.
Dec. 28, 2019 | 7:57 p.m.
Range depended of course but your best pairs can make a call about 30% of the time and fold the rest according GTO+ with the ranges and tree I simulated.
Solver picks A2s-A4s (each about 1/3 of the time) as jam bluffs prob due to the blocker effect and low showdown value.
Dec. 28, 2019 | 10:43 a.m.
Against good players you should defend ~ 50% of your 3 bet range against a 4 bet. His size is rather large and most players don't 4 bet enough (almost no 4 bet bluffs) so would defend less then 50% in this position.
So if KQs is in the top 50% of your 3 bet range then defending with it is ok but be aware that KQs can easily be dominated by AK.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 3:09 p.m.
UTG should not have KTs, JTs, QTs and call your 3 bet with 2 other players behind him so would not give many of those and as there is no flush draw present villain should not have many bluffs in this spot.
Think JJ is just to low and perhaps better just fold against the line villain choose. A lot of players are just not bluffing enough and certainly not in 3 bet pots.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 3 p.m.
Will play most of flushes (65s+) except maybe KQs/KJs/KTs like this. But I think my turn bet is just to big making that I cant put enough bluffs into the balance. Anyway on the turn I still bet TT without the club and check AA for balance and as those hands are less likely to get calls.
Villain btw had AK with the king of clubs so no way I can get him off that hand as it blocks some of my better flush draws.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 2:54 p.m.
So 600 hand 3bet 13% and VPIP 34% his WTSD is on the higher side but his won at showdown is ok-ish. The 13% at 600 hands does not say to much
Would normally not 4 bet ATs with two players behind you would just fold preflop. As ATs is the bottom of your range in this situation would not jam it would just fold (some portion of your range should normally be folded against aggression). If you want to bluff jam could consider jamming AJs or just AQs as they block better pairs and you don't want to call with them OOP.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 2:43 p.m.
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: 97.9 BB
Hero (SB): 103.5 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 110.76 BB
MP: 88.94 BB
CO: 100 BB VPIP 24 PFR 22 Fold to 3 Bet 44 (220 hands)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc Kh
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, CO calls 7.5 BB
3 bet with KQo from the SB against the CO looks ok to me
Flop : (21 BB, 2 players) 3c Ts Ac
Hero bets 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB
Having a gut shot and blocking flush draws I decide to bet out and represent the A as I have more Ax hands then villain in my range.
Turn : (39 BB, 2 players) 7c
Hero bets 28 BB, CO calls 28 BB
Get more equity (second NUT flush draw) so I decide to make another bet (sizing could be smaller see river).
River : (95 BB, 2 players) Th
Hero bets 56.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 53 BB and is all-in
This is the part where I am very unsure about if that is ok. Afterwards I don't think this 3 barrel is working often enough given the stack sizes. So I either should bet smaller on the turn such that I can bet larger on the river or just give up.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 8:47 a.m.
The range question is quite difficult to answer and primarily depends on villains 3-bet and 4-bet calling range. Your small c-bet OOP should not get many if any folds and your cold 4 bet to less then 3x should also get not to many folds from the top of his 3 betting range and only fold out most of his 3-bet bluffs. He only needs to put in 8 more to win almost 27.
Given the preflop action would say something like ATs+, AQo+, JJ+, KQs where the top of the range is sometimes 5 bet and the bottom is sometimes folded or bluffed 5 bet against a cold 4 bet of less then 3x from OOP.
Dec. 26, 2019 | 2:41 p.m.
Mann that's a bad run out on both flop and turn for your holding.
I like the flop play. Turn is somewhat strange one could make a play here and just raise him for a small amount as if you have a flush yourself but then again I don't think there is anything wrong with just calling.
River it is as it is just fold as you did here.
Dec. 26, 2019 | 10:32 a.m.
Think villain can make this play with AK if hes any good. With AK he is prob not going to fold to any bet so betting himself makes sense. Given the preflop action your most likely holding is AK, KK, AA and if he can get you off AK or get an hero call from KK that is very good and there is very little chance that you have a 6 yourself as you made a 3bet.
Dec. 26, 2019 | 10:13 a.m.
Villain has a tight opening range and still almost 60% fold to 3 bet meaning that his 3 bet calling range is prob very strong and could include AKo. This villain should not show up with (a lot of) low suited connectors. MP bets almost all his stack on the river on a board that clearly is also good for you so my best estimate is that prob will split pot when you call.
Would not love the situation but make the call (villain is almost allin).
Dec. 25, 2019 | 11:45 a.m.
I like your line of thinking here. Can't find a flaw other then maybe as you said bet flop and maybe bet smaller on the river so that even more hands can call you down. You need more of his range calling you down then raising you of your hand.
Dec. 24, 2019 | 10 p.m.
If SB is a good player SB knows that you can't have to many 4 bet bluffs with CO also still in the pot so SB himself should not have many bluffs. So without any additional information on the villain would just fold this one as I assume that this is close to the bottom of you 4 bet range in this spot.
SB raises to 250 effective and thus invests an extra ~230 to either pick up ~70 immediately or win 500 * his equity against your calling range * your calling frequency.
SB EV is 70 * (1-calling freq) + 500 * eq(uity) * calling freq - 230 * calling freq
If your calling frequency is 50% then
SB EV is 35 + 250eq - 115. So SB breaks even on his 5 bet allin if you call 50% if his worst hand has 32% equity against your range.
But if villain includes a 32% equity hand that is targeting you range e.g. 78s or TT you can include more calling hands and you calling frequency will go up. That means that you keep each other balanced.
So I guess yes 50% or just a bit more seems like a good calling percentage.
As always everything depends on the ranges you and the villain have as it does when you run a sim.
Dec. 24, 2019 | 4:09 p.m.
Flop and turn are for sure good to call.
River is a close spot as you yourself have a missed flush-draw and you block straight draws it is less likely that villain has a missed draw other then Jx (e.g. AJ or JJ). Besides a straight he can the following value hands that beat you AQ or TT or 99. So the question is what range do you have here that called flop and turn besides a straight, full house, KQ, AQ and JJ.
Looks to me that KQ is besides JJ the bottom of your range so folding all KQ is I guess the best and for sure folding KQss is ok.
Dec. 24, 2019 | 3:12 p.m.
You don't need to balance against fish nor against most regs.
You want all draws to continue even gut-shots, overpairs and overcards to continue so would go like 50%-75% pot and you have a better change that fish will call. And if he calls you can try maximize value on the river.
Dec. 24, 2019 | 7:47 a.m.
There are many more combos then 6 that can call in my opinion at least as a bluff catch they can. Having said that bombing in this spot can be lucrative if you a read on the villain that he always probes turn and follows up on the river as some players tend to do a lot. But is not the case here only 17% probes against missed cbets (only 6 hands though).
So not a fan in this spot and as you already said you block a missed flush draw and your hand has good show down value.