Preflop would def raise you don't want to give the BB the correct price to get in the hand with any two cards. And you want to charge UTG Ax holdings.
Would make it something like 8-9 BB and call it off if UTG shoves.
As played I think the fold is to tight but not a very big mistake as the BB can easily have a 5 and if he is on a draw he still can beat you on the next street and then there is the UTG player to consider also who is willing to cold call in the middle with a player left to act.
Aug. 7, 2020 | 7:36 a.m.
When you run hands in ICMizer or Holdem Resource Calculator or ... you will see that moving all-in from early position and put your ~15 BB stack at risk is not the best play. The reason behind is that you want to have fold opportunity if two players behind you decide to move all in meaning that the second player for sure has a better range then your hands and you can still fold. I actually think that min-raising is actually more +EV then shoving here.
The later the position the more shoving becomes a more +EV play then just min-raising, of course this depends also on stack sizes.
Aug. 7, 2020 | 7:24 a.m.
If SB is only betting 12% and if the BB defends 'normal' yes then I would open wider. But that is besides the point of the study I want to know what the best defense against a SB is who defends with 12% of 3Bets which is way to low.
April 3, 2020 | 6:05 p.m.
It depends heavily on what range you give villain. But once you give villain the described 12% 3 bet range. Then AQo and KQo aren't +EV calls so I did put them in the 4bet bluffing range as they block a lot of 4bet calling range (don't think villain should have a wide OOP 4bet calling range so blocking 5 bets becomes important) and of the 5 bet for value range.
April 3, 2020 | 1:08 p.m.
Yes it is tight but I think that against a good player (that plays tight 3Bet strategy of only 12% from the SB) it is ok to be tight. I made sure to include positional etc advantages when creating this chart as I used the solver to come up with the EV that is realized when starting stack is 100BB.
Be aware that the 3Bet is actually more then 4x as I assumes a raise of 2.24 and a 3Bet of 10. This ofc makes that one has to be slightly tighter then against a real 4x sizing.
When the 3Bet is truly 4x and the bet was 2.5 one will see that KTs becomes an almost 100% call (real EV is 7.57) and that K9s becomes close.
March 31, 2020 | 6:45 p.m.
Would prefer a smaller range cBet on the flop on this K-high board on which you have a range advantage don't think your NUT advantage is big enough on this flop to bet bigger then 1/3 pot if villain can have 55 and 22.
Villains raise on the flop is an under bluffed spot so yes I think you overestimate the bluffs.
Villains 55 and 22 are in my opinion excellent candidates to min-raise on the flop to build the pot.
Both folding and calling his min-raise on the flop is ok if villain is balanced I guess you are basically bluf-catching and you might even have better candidates to bluff catch with but then again the odds are very good.
The 7 is as good as a blank turn card so if you called on the flop now nothing changes other than that villain continues betting and now has 25% pot odds against a jam meaning that villain should prob call even with TT,JJ,QQ (if he would have those in his range). I still think that folding on the turn is the best option as you should have a narrow range with lots of Kx and better pairs that block more of his value range then 99 that can continue more comfortable.
March 31, 2020 | 1:29 p.m.
Good river bluff are hands that have not much equity and block villains calling hands and unblock villain folding hands. Having that in mind one can construct your bluffing range.
Your A3 connects somewhat with the board meaning that it blocks straight draws and backdoor flushdraws that connect with this board on the flop/turn and now completely missed on the river. So you are blocking hands that could continue on the flop and turn but will fold on the river (giving you less fold equity). You also block some AJo holdings which is good as those hands beat you (giving you more fold equity). Better hands to bluff with are hands that connect better with the J as villain might continue with all Jx that he has in his preflop calling range and might call those down on the river. This however is more of an art as what Jx will call a river bet and what Jx will fold. So the best choice are those cards that block his best Jx holdings that can call a bet his best calls are hands that block an overpair to the J so my educated guess would be that KQ,AQ,AK are better bluffs then A3 here due to blockers etc. And as A3 has equity A3 is a good check behind and win anyway hand.
Always try to see the bigger picture and don't focus on exact cuttoff hands as that is very depend on the way the solvers work.
"Solver know exactly what the opponents strategy is and that is never true in the real world"
March 31, 2020 | 9:21 a.m.
On micros rake is high meaning that hands that are a small +EV on higher levels become less +EV on micro levels as you pay rake. A good way to combat that is to open tighter but bigger as as you play tighter you want to play bigger pots or pick up the pot preflop.
Think you should also have no calling range from most positions and only 3bet exceptions are the BB as you have a huge discount to call and sometimes the BTN as you will always be IP on the flop on the BTN you can have a calling range if the SB and BB are not aggressive squeezers.
March 31, 2020 | 8:44 a.m.
What hands do you think villain can have on the river after you XR flop and bet turn?
His range is very capped (narrow) and should consists of mainly straights and missed flush draws and maybe two pair hands.
Now what sizing do you thin they will call and if they would bet if you check.
Most hands wont bet unless they have you crushed and perhaps some Asx hands make a bluff. So checking is probably not giving you much value.
I personally would bet around 1/2 pot maybe a bit larger as that probably gets a lot of crying calls from the opponent.
March 31, 2020 | 8:39 a.m.
The playability of Axs from LJ is very table and rake depended as Axs is almost never going to be a massive +EV hand.
March 31, 2020 | 8:26 a.m.
Preflop OOP calling a 3bet when it is bumped up to 27 and you have a stack of 256 might already be questionable unless these tables are very loose. Pot will be 55 and you need to put in 19 prob a close spot.
Flop top pair and villain makes a standard range cbet calling is ok.
Turn is a K would check-fold now villain can have a better Q or have a K and as hes the 3 bettor he has a massive Range and NUT advantage on this board.
River a 9 of diamonds completing loads of draws is the worst card in the deck for you so a clear fold in my opinion.
March 31, 2020 | 8:16 a.m.
Would as suggested by others try to get allin on the turn so would size up on flop and go allin on the turn. Against most fish value betting and getting it all in as soon as possible is a sound strategy in my opinion.
River is close as the odds are just in your favor as you only have to be good 1:5 against a 33% pot bet to break even so I would make the hesitant call (some just go allin with AJ here as they won't fold it with this SPR same is true for QQ).
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:21 p.m.
This is most of the time a clue that someone is over calling so don't bluff those with under 50% w$sd to much. Of course 500 hands is not enough to be definitive but still it is an indication.
fcb: 47% | fcbt: 17% also an indication that hes overcalling still 500 hands means that the fcbt means not that much.
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:13 p.m.
If villain is a decent player he should in my opinion not bet out with flush draws a lot in a multi way limped pot. So his betting range can be even have more equity then your worst scenario where it includes all sets.
Still I would make the call preflop as you have position on the raise and an overpair and back door equity (flush and straight draw) and there is only one person left to act.
Turn is a deuce which is almost a blank so would make another call.
River is a 7 don't think that is a blank villain can be improved to a straight I know it is not that likely as you bock 98 but there is also the 54 which is an up and down straight draw. So the river is a close decision in my opinion and can be either a call or a fold.
Jan. 1, 2020 | 3:09 p.m.
True forgot about the QJ, QT, JT with one diamond they can be turned into a bluff (saw solver doing that) but I imagine not may players do that on 50NL. Still QJ get there on the turn and QT and JT become a paired hand with a gutshot and will not always be bluffed I guess. Oh and hero is holding J of diamond.
Dec. 31, 2019 | 9:35 a.m.
Ah he had QdJd as that is no where stated :) If he has QJ of diamonds even then can't fault the play as he has an up and down straight draw (8 outs) + a flush draw (9 outs) two overlap so 15 outs or more then 30% so villain does not need to many folds here.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 10:33 a.m.
The diamond draw makes the situation more complex as both of you can play your value hands and your draws aggressively on this flop.
Villain can try to get you of a diamond draw or a weaker A (e.g. AJ or A9) by betting all his value hands and draws. Though I wonder if one should be as wide as even betting QJ which I suppose was not QdJd.
Btw what bluffs is he blocking with QJ ? Don't see (m)any bluffs that have a Q or J in them.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 10 a.m.
There are many ways to play AA in this situation and a solver will mix them so I don't think there is a best way (from GTO perspective).
Preflop: you gave the preflop raiser reasonable odds so he can call your 3 bet a bit wider then usual so would give villain a wider range then you suggest and would even include some JTs and 98s for a small percentage. Would also not give QQ, AKs, AKo 100% as they can be 4 bet preflop.
Flop think both check raising and betting out is ok. Villain btw can just call with his nut hands as SPR is about 1 and villain is IP so basically has pot control and can decide if he wants to go for it and jam or not.
Turn both betting small, jamming and checking can be ok here. I like to check-call though as that gives villain the opportunity to bluff. You check-call a small bet seems ok to me.
River villain now jams for 40% pot and gives you great odds to call in what now is a gross spot not a lot of villains are capable of bluffing on the river like this so can't fault the fold here but I would prob make the call as I am over calling to much.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 9:48 a.m.
Preflop the BB can be very wide as he just flats.
I wonder what bluff raises on the flop does villain have that don't beat your hand by the river as all flush draws get there and all value hands also so still beat your hand. So my gut feeling is that this a fold on the river (or perhaps even the turn) as you can't beat many bluffs.
Dec. 30, 2019 | 9:15 a.m.
Given his stats folds almost 70% to 3 bets and only a VPIP of 17 (and on MP prob even less) meaning that villain prob has a range of something like AA-99,AKs-AJs,AKo once he calls a 3 bet from MP. And as villain is none aggressive (AFq below 30%) villain will actually have prob zero bluffs. Given the fact that you also hold As taking away the really good bluff candidates would just fold your one paired hand. Villain just does not have 65s, 87s, KJs in a 3 bet pot.
Dec. 28, 2019 | 7:57 p.m.
Range depended of course but your best pairs can make a call about 30% of the time and fold the rest according GTO+ with the ranges and tree I simulated.
Solver picks A2s-A4s (each about 1/3 of the time) as jam bluffs prob due to the blocker effect and low showdown value.