Ask yourself what would do on the turn when you actually have a flush?
Don't think a flush nor AK would start betting so small and taking all villain bluff opportunities away. Either bet big for value (to get the most from AK) or just check-call or check-raise if you want to represent a flush. If the turn goes check-check you can put a lot of pressure on the villain by betting the river big.
Now the river bet isnt that strong as your turn bet does not fit in with your river bet.
"Dont know what GTO says about it but for most people it is just still plain human emotions that play the major role and not GTO balancing and bet sizing and ....."
March 24, 2019 | 7:29 p.m.
Yeah but now your assuming that everyone plays balanced which is of course not the case and certainly not on lower levels. No need to have board coverage in your range. And I wont be happy flopping a T either as a pair with KT.
But he I know what GTO says about it but as most people dont play GTO it is still exploitative play that should gain you the most money.
March 24, 2019 | 6:34 p.m.
If you can make notes on players would def starting to do so in this case as knowing the player types you play against makes a huge difference. Otherwise get a general feeling on the player pool tendencies are most players nits or fish or tag or lag and adjust your basic playing style accordingly.
March 24, 2019 | 2:38 p.m.
I would not choose KTs because it is good enough. In my opinion it is not a value hand in a three bet pot it is most of the time a bad hand in a three bet pot as it is easily dominated by e.g. AK, KQ, AT, TT AQs of the same suit as your KTs. I rather 3 bet with A2s-A5s as they have an A blocker and can make a wheel and can make top pair and can make the nut flush. I also would rather have A6s then KTs.
Anyway on the flop one can choose to bet out and try to pick up the pot right away or go for the check call.
Think the turn is close (you have a range advantage and hes betting into you on both flop and turn) but you have a straight draw so would make the call.
The river is unless you know that the villain is super aggro (river bluffing three barreling) a fold.
March 24, 2019 | 2:32 p.m.
Preflop would assume that a 4 tabling p[layer with stats like 22/22 is a weak tight player (between a NIT and a TAG) and wont call with a range of 16% (he most likely will drop all low suited A's preflop against UTG player as they are to easily dominated.
On the flop I would not assume that he will check/raise all his draws (btw all 89s are a double gutters). Still I like the bet size and would call the raise of the BB. You having the Q of spade makes a flush draw less likely though.
Don't agree that he will bet out his sets a 100% there is an obvious straight possible hes afraid of and he just plays pot control with a set at least some portion of the time.
On the river all 89s beats you not only 8s9s and I don't think he has Ax of spades with a low card. His Jx hands most likely would not three bet on the flop and bloat the pot with one pair and they are also more likely to check call then or put in a smaller raise on the river.
On the river it is a close call and not as good as you assume I would expect to loose the pot certainly more then 60% of the time.
March 24, 2019 | 2:12 p.m.
Preflop - villain cold cold your min raise which indicates that villain has something little like a small pair or a reasonable suited connector.
Flop - raising his min raise does not make much sense indeed (min raises are a sign of a good hand most of the time that are not scared to be called by AK on a K-high board) actually draws could easily just call and when improved let you do the turn betting. With a draw he actually should want for UTG to tag along and not scare him away with a min raise. Its a multi way pot where the villain is min raising in so that looks extra strong and not a bluff.
Turn - you got more equity so calling is fine you also have the benefit of being in position
River - giving the preflop and flop and turn play of the villain your most likely beat so I guess folding is best here
Think you played it well except maybe the river problem is though that the pot odds are so great. But one pair will loose most of the time.
March 24, 2019 | 9:38 a.m.
I would be hard pressed to call the river given the river odds but then again I loose on my river calls so I am calling to liberally.
Think that overall you played it fine.
- flop would not 4 bet here as that might scare bluffs and semi bluffs away
- turn the J is not a good card for you as now your also beat by JJ and the only overpair remaining that you beat is QQ so the call on the turn is getting marginal but still ok
- river the A is a disaster for you as indeed e.g. AT now gets there
March 24, 2019 | 9:20 a.m.
H'mm a high 3 bet% makes me wanna 4 bet him with AJo as AJo does not play well post-flop and certainly not OOP. OOP I tend to 4 bet more then call and if I call it is only suited hands and then also pref connected ones or A2s-A5s which have much better playability then AJo.
AJo is easily dominated by his 3 betting range.
On the turn it is a clear fold in my book unless he has besides a high turn cbet% also a very high flop cbet% and then still it is prob a fold as it is a 3 bet pot that hit his 3 bet range to good. You only win against a complete bluff.
March 24, 2019 | 12:12 a.m.
There is no need to jam on the flop one should not be scared of a flush in this situation. He can easily have AK (not a likely holding) or KQ or KJ or a set or two pair. And you might loose the weaker hands then yours and the better ones will certainly continue. The villain has actually also not much reason to raise with a flush draw as hes in position and can easily realize his equity by just calling your bet.
So would just call the BB's raise as their is no reason to drive out one pair hands this way you can try to get value from KQ and KJ now you only win the pot if he folds or if he calls you will prob loose as you have bottom two pair that cant beat much if the villain calls.
The end result will probably not be any different as it will be difficult to lay down two pair on this board and the BB will almost certainly try to get all the money in.
March 23, 2019 | 11:54 p.m.
Think so yes your bet is to large to get calls from top pair only hands the villain can call almost only with AK and sets which makes that the villain will play it almost perfectly against your bet sizing. From his preflop stats one could conclude that hes prob a passive fish (calling station) but also calling stations have their limits.
You likely have him beat so he prob does not have AK or a set so I do think you can make a thin value bet of lets say 1/3-1/2 pot.
March 23, 2019 | 11:41 p.m.
He has NIT/ROCK stats so preflop hes not likely to continue with 55. So after the flop bet and call would put him on 99+ (AA is a possibility as he has 0 aggro) and maybe an occasional AhQh . Would bet both flop and turn to have an easy shove on the river would not want to loose value from AhQh so would not shove on the turn. OOP it can also make sense to check raise as to balance your checking range. This has the advantage that if the villain bets (has something) you will be able to sweeten the pot on the flop and get it all in on the turn.
March 23, 2019 | 11:30 p.m.
There are of course more player types that cbet 1/2 to 2/3 pots on a dry board.
- against nit players that only cbet like 40% or less start 'over folding' and only continue with top pair or better
- against aggro players that cbet like 80% keep a wider range e.g. call with all pairs and not only top pair and perhaps even with two overcards and a backdoor flush
March 23, 2019 | 11:11 p.m.
Would not 3 bet a lot form the BB as you close the action you can call a lot wider. Would if I 3 bet from BB bet bigger more like 4x his bet or even bigger as his bet is just over 2x BB.
MP only has to put in $0.32 in a $0.64 pot and he will be in position so MP could call pretty wide here. On this type of flop one high card I tend with my bad hands and good hands just bet out like 1/2-2/3 pot and if that does not generates folds just check/fold on most turns.
Def would not check call flop, you bluff 3 bet so there is no shame in folding when you have nothing. If you cant fold your bluffs then either play them aggressively by betting flop or don't bluff with them.
On the turn would still just check/fold mostly unless the price is to good for the flush draw.
March 23, 2019 | 7:10 p.m.
22k hands is not that much but here my two cents.
I find your play to loose form early position (UTG of about 15% is about ok).
You fold versus 3 bet is definitely to low to my taste you can fold a percentage higher then 65% here or even 75%.
Cold calling from SB I don't like either your OOP and not closing the action as on the BB so I prefer a more 3 bet or fold strategy there. Cold calling is something one can improve on and the easiest way is to deploy a 3bet or fold strategy from any position except the BB.
Your river calling efficiency is on the low side so you prob calling to much on the river this could be related to calling to much 3 bets.
March 23, 2019 | 12:59 p.m.
Think it is very difficult to get away from such a situation but looking at it UTG probably has a very strong hand to start with something like 99-QQ, AK as he calls you preflop 3 bet. On the flop you raise and a player in the middle folds and he min re raises you knowing that you bet into two people he clearly is on either an elaborate bluff (but as he cant have many draws it would be a pure bluff which not many are capable off) or has a set and wants to get the money in on the turn. So when you call the flop your almost always priced in on the turn.
But given the odds and your overpair I would not be able to fold myself and still wonder if folding on the flop would not be better against most players.
March 23, 2019 | 12:05 a.m.
Easy fold preflop against a ROCK/NIT with 14/11 overall stats that raises from UTG and UTG+1 caller. I would never ever bluff such an opponent unless he has a big fold to 3 bet stat. I would even fold KQs, AJs from the SB in this case.
March 22, 2019 | 11:53 p.m.
Villain can ofc have a boat (~10 combos (AA, JJ, KK, A7)) or a straight (not that likely unless QcTc), but the majority of hands will be either two pair with an A (18 combos) or top pair reasonable kicker (2 combos).
I guess you want to target the two pair hands as that is the most likely combo here. So the question how big a bet will two pair call.
Against an over bet two pair may fold e.g. he could fold all two pair that hold a club as that makes it less likely that you have a missed flush draw or fold all AJ or have raised with some AJ on the turn as the turn bet wasn't big, but I find it very difficult in this situation.
In this situation I like the 2/3 pot bet more then an over bet.
March 22, 2019 | 11:42 p.m.
Here my two cents:
I am currently using the opposite never 3 bet calling but only 4 betting or folding I use my preflop (don't care about variance) skills to outplay my opponents.
Are there players that don´t play with a 4betting range 6max 100BB
deep? Saying you only call/fold to 3b. You don´t 4bet.
- You can use your postflop edge
True but I rather have the initiative as most players in my player pool play rather better when they have the initiative then when they haven't. Meaning there cbet tendencies are better then their calling cbet tendencies so initiative is key for me to outplay them.
In the end a strategy should be based on your opponent tendencies if on your level they play bad in 3 bet pots then for all means implement a 3bet calling strategy.
- It has less variance you save yourself from stupid preflop wars, 4bet bluffs and weak 3bet calling ranges and tilting flips you always
seem to lose
Variance should not be a factor in decision making as it holds you back making the best play.
- What is the downside to it that is not covered by an upside?
Serious question. I really don´t understand it
Downside of the strategy is that you will miss 4 bet opportunities that are good e.g. against opponents that 3 bet to much and fold to 4 bet to much I rather widen my 4 bet range (with holdings that play well post flop (e.g. A5s, 67s etc) and call with my best hands.
March 22, 2019 | 9:20 a.m.
Would bet turn and river a bit bigger but on the stakes played you will win the pot a bigger % of the time then you loose the pot with a set.
Of course you will run against an opponent now and then that beats you with KJ or QQ but that is poker variance.
If he has QQ def make a note that it is perhaps a trappy player as he checked back flop and be a bit more cautious against that kind of opponent.
March 22, 2019 | 8:59 a.m.
Weird play by your opponent. Hes essentially over-betting on every street which suggests that he is an aggro-fish. The turn is actually an allin so that over bet is not so rare as a decent sizing would leave him pot committed anyway.
Would certainly not put him on AA or KK as that would be really strange as he can easily bet you out of the pot this way so I would think either QQ or a flush draw or AK or a complete bluff.
Think folding cant be bad but if there was any indication that he could be an aggro fish would def call him off.
March 21, 2019 | 8:13 p.m.
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: 106.6 BB (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 61.54, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (SB): 173.8 BB
BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 22.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 33)
MP: 91.5 BB
CO: 114.02 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Td Ad
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 7 BB
Flop : (20 BB, 2 players) 5c Tc Jd
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN calls 8 BB
Turn : (36 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero checks, BTN bets 22.24 BB, Hero raises to 100.92 BB, BTN calls 66.86 BB and is all-in
River : (214.2 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero shows Td Ad (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 66%, Flop 73%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows 9d Kd (Straight, King High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 27%, Turn 77%)
BTN wins 210.2 BB
Rake paid 4 BB
On the turn I am OOP and decide to go for a check raise all in on a very wet board as I have a gut shot, a flush draw and I block AK (that also might have 4 betted me preflop). I also have a pair and a T or A might even be a good card for me if villain has e.g. two pair.
What do you guys think of the line taken and the turn check raise?
March 21, 2019 | 8:04 p.m.
Agree well played.
March 21, 2019 | 1:53 p.m.
I did not look into overbetting a lot but I don't think this is a spot to overbet the pot. It is a very wet board meaning that villain is not likely to call and if he calls or raises as is the case your most of the time up against a nutty hand two pair KQ, KT or AJ or J9.
The K on the river makes that now the villain has you also beat with KQ and KT so think the fold is correct if the river was a blank I would call but now with the K a fold is correct.
March 21, 2019 | 9:34 a.m.
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 118.18 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 23)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: 132.64 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (UTG): 105.42 BB
MP: 110.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 51)
CO: 182.12 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Th 9h
Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO raises to 5.76 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.26 BB
Flop : (13.02 BB, 2 players) 9d 6d Td
Hero checks, CO bets 12.36 BB, Hero raises to 49.44 BB, CO raises to 176.36 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 50.22 BB and is all-in
Turn : (212.34 BB, 2 players) Kc
River : (212.34 BB, 2 players) 8s
Hero shows Th 9h (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 22%, Flop 72%, Turn 82%)
CO shows Ac Ah (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 78%, Flop 28%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 208.34 BB
Rake paid 4 BB
Just a fun hand.
Villain min-raised to less then 2.5 my bet so I called with 9Ts (I fold those against a 3x raise, but he against those odds I want to see a flop).
Oh what a flop it is monotone board and I have two pair. I check-raise villain and we go all in preflop. He shows AA (luckily no diamond) and my two pair hold :)
Could not resists this illustrative hand what can happen if you try to get your opponent to call by making just a small 3 bet with AA.
March 21, 2019 | 9:23 a.m.
Difficult spot in the river but he has very likely a very strong hand with the line he took. KQ or QQ or a flush only bluff I see is with the Ah and some other card but what could he raise flop with then only if he has AhKc or AhXh that rivered a flush.
Yes you get good odds on the river but unless the villain is an aggro-fish folding is best.