Samu Patronen's avatar


Samu Patronen

3636 points

Fold to a raise on the river when your hand is good but not great. Most players are passive so your better off giving respect when you get raised, especially on the river.

March 21, 2020 | 11:03 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on BTN Vs BB

Getting it in seems fine by me.

March 18, 2020 | 10:51 p.m.

The runout is excellent for your range, because your range is disproportionately geared towards lower cards whereas your opponents range is going to have more high cards that aren't connecting to this runout. That in mind I like the river shove. What comes to constructing your strategy on earlier streets, low cards are generally playing more aggressive than higher cards, so stuff like combo draws and pair+draw are raising often.

March 18, 2020 | 12:22 a.m.

Feb. 28, 2020 | 3:17 p.m.

What does it mean in "theory"? Which "theory"?

Game theory

Where can I study this "theory"? PIO gives only a results. I want to know the logic of the "theory". Thanks!

The logic of game theory, or more specifically the logic of Nash Equilibrium, is that there is a perfect strategy for competitive games involving two or more players, and by following that strategy, there is nothing that your opponents could do to improve their expected value.

The logic of this theory is too vast to understand directly, but what we can do is work with solvers such as PIO to understand it better. "Only a result" seems like an underestimation of solver work, because seeing multiple "results" across all kinds of different situations is by far the best way to learn the "logic" of nash equilibrium in poker.

Feb. 27, 2020 | 6:22 p.m.

Oh right, it's NL50. But it still says that the pot is 84 dollars on the river and shove is 25 dollars, I think it's 25 dollars into a pot of 42 dollars?

Feb. 22, 2020 | 7:15 p.m.

Stack sizes are confusing, how is villain shoving only 25 dollars on the river when he started the hand with 125?

Feb. 22, 2020 | 6:06 p.m.

Calling is fine againts the raise too I suppose. I just dont think it matters a ton, in fact I feel like not allowing villain to find some check/folds on club turns is more important than allowing villain to bluff turns. The main thing is that there's not much left behind and we're not folding on any turn really.

What comes to flop strategy, I honestly have no idea how to play 5way pots. The optimal strategy would probably include a lot of checking overall, but our hand is kinda good againts people who do terrible mistakes on the flop againts a bet. For example Jx without a club is probably folding a lot againts even a small bet, especially not closing the action.

Feb. 22, 2020 | 5:43 p.m.

If you get called by multiple players like this often, I would increase my sizing preflop until I start getting some folds. We don't really want to play 5 way pot here. My rule here would be that if you're never winning the pot preflop, your sizing is too small.

I think we just get it in with our hand againts a recreational. SPR is only a bit over 2.

Feb. 22, 2020 | 2:09 p.m.

Not really I guess, I don't have a sense of which approach would be better exploitatively and I don't really randomize my decisions in general because I don't play tough and small pools where that would be required, so I just go with whatever I feel like doing at the moment. I guess AQ with the Qd would have a little bit more incentive to go small because that hand blocks hands that we sort of prefer to go big againts.

Feb. 21, 2020 | 7:36 p.m.

Both options seem fine to me, I don't think it matters a great deal.

Feb. 21, 2020 | 6:54 p.m.

Againts a potsize bet your MDF is 50%, that is how much your calling range is supposed to be to prevent villain from bluffing any two cards. That said, this line is extremely strong in practice so I would be looking to fold at some point. River would certainly be a fold for me.

Feb. 21, 2020 | 12:08 a.m.

Warms your heart to see that at high stakes, doesn't it.

Feb. 20, 2020 | 3:30 p.m.

I know that MDF doesn't apply in a lot of spots , but i read/saw somewhere from a coach comment/live play (unsure where) that the PRF should almost always meet MDF on the river vs a lead if he has the range advantage and has option to check/ cbet on the turn

I just solved this myself, OOP has 63% equity on the river, so the IP does not have a range advantage. IP is indeed betting turn with most made hands and checking a lot with non-made hands, whereas OOP is going to be folding a lot of crap on the flop and therefore his range ends up being stronger on the river.

Feb. 20, 2020 | 3:26 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on The live "bully"

These people taking issue with you don't really sound like people I would care to associate with anyways, but I get that it doesn't feel nice to provoke such feelings on other people, despite how irrational those reactions are.

but I also feel like I'm purposefully separating myself from the rest of the players

It's important to realize that to become the best player at the table, you are separating yourself from other players in that process. Not only you get better as a poker player, but approaching the game from a purely rational point of view is also going to separate you from most people, especially the types of people who have to do meditation in order to deal with the fact that you're doing your best to win at a game where the goal is to try to win the money.

Pretty interesting issue though, I'd love to hear any similar stories about live poker getting personal like this, I have virtually no experience on this front because I don't play live poker at all.

Feb. 20, 2020 | 3:08 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on Bet Success Freq

I feel like a lot of people don't realize this, because I see most small stakes players playing multiway spots very wrong. The biggest problem seems to be not adjusting to the multiway dynamic at all and just playing kinda similarly than you would if it was heads-up. Heads-up you have an average of 50% potshare, 3way the average is 33%. That has a big impact on how your strategy is supposed to look like.

Feb. 19, 2020 | 3:59 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on Bet Success Freq

Feb. 19, 2020 | 3:48 p.m.

I would bet really tiny just to put some pressure on crappy hands like QJ. With this SPR I would also call if he shoves and also do some check turn call river lines, depending on his fold to flop cbet stat and maybe some aggression stats. Really important to know whether we're up againts a maniac or more of a fit fold type, and it seems like you had a decent sample on him.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 10:39 p.m.

I feel uneasy about this play. I think we should either check at some point or actually just shove river to fold out an Ax sometimes, assuming villain is capped to Ax. Advocating a check is probably safer.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:36 p.m.

I think this question is so general to the point where the question might aswell be "How to play poker". All I can really come up with to answer these questions would be that you have to figure answers to these questions on a hand to hand basis and/or on a formation to formation basis, because there are so many different situations in poker that you simply cannot generalize. The cool thing is that once you study one spot, you'll simultaneously become better at other spots aswell, or atleast better at thinking about other spots.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:33 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on NL5 JJ in the SB

I would default to 3betting here. As played you can definitely continue againts a squeeze, JJ is almost never folded againts 3bets.

Use this to guide your preflop game, it's the best free source for preflop as far as I know. Not perfect but way better than nothing.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:26 p.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on NL5 99 on the SB

I think fold is good, I doubt you'll see a massive barreling frequency here at a passive micro stakes pool. I would just continue 88/77, Jx and better and be done with it.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:23 p.m.

Yeah I'm not a fan of shoving. I solved this spot to see if the EV of shoving would be significantly worse than the EV of alternative lines, and it seems like shoving is clearly the worst play out of all the options (33% bet, 50% bet, 75% bet, all-in and check) with every single hand. The EV difference between shoving and all the other options appears to be somewhere between 2,5bb-3,5bb with most hands, worst bluffs losing the most (AsTh losing 5bb for example) and a hand that loses the least seems to be AA without a heart, losing roughly 1bb compared to other options. Our overall checking frequency appears to be 55% and all three sizing options besides all in are used frequently enough to be significant, top parts of our range generally favouring a bigger sizing while some of the weaker valuehands are doing some smaller bets, although mostly checking. I think the best simple strategy would be to just stick with one sizing between 2/3 and 3/4 and betting a fairly polarized strategy of Kx+ and bluffs. Smaller betsizes are also viable but using them complicates the game tree, and shoving just isn't a thing at all, unless our opponent is a massive calling station or something.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:18 p.m.

I think preflop is just a pure 4bet with AK, it's a strong hand and yet quite vulnerable to the point where getting value as well as protection seems very good to me.

Postflop we're not folding, villain can easily have some sort of semibluff as well as AK for value.

Feb. 17, 2020 | 5:09 p.m.

Alright I'm definitely convinced now that it isn't as clear as I made it out to be originally. Preflop assumptions are in fact extremely important here when ranges are narrow. My OOP range had way less hands that connect with this low board.

Would be interesting to see what the general call 4bet range looks like in small stakes environments. I have a strong suspicion that a hand like AQo would be more represented than a hand like 76s or 65s, but I don't have any concrete means to back up that assumption.

Feb. 14, 2020 | 3:26 p.m.

Squeeze is definitely good but not necessarily inherently better than calling. That said given that the BTN is probably a fish squeezing becomes more attractive.

Feb. 14, 2020 | 2:37 p.m.

I simmed this and IP EV was like three times the EV of OOP and every hand lost significant amounts of EV by not betting on the flop. Obviously this depends on preflop assumptions, I can make another sim with other preflop assumptions if anyone is curious.

Feb. 14, 2020 | 1:57 p.m.

The Last Question by Isaac Asimov is probably my all time favourite short story! Very short read and you can find it for free online.

Feb. 13, 2020 | 4:33 p.m.

Size up preflop to atleast 0,27. Betting flop is perfectly fine in general, turn check is probably good aswell. You could bluff river.

Feb. 13, 2020 | 3:36 p.m.

Yeah his sizing is probably not a thing in theory, it's harder to have a bluffing range with such a sizing. Which is probably what is going to end up happening here unless villain is crazy.

Feb. 13, 2020 | 3:35 p.m.

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