Bet/bet/check line seems reasonable to me, we can shove the river for value on majority of rivers but Tc is not a very good river for us (flushes, QT, JT and AK get there).
In theory we're probably supposed to mix call and fold with AA/KK/AQ againts a river bet and favor calling with combos that have a club in them.
It seems like a close spot to me, I think I'm fine with folding though. Population in general struggles to turn hands into a bluff and valuebet thin on the river. It's also not particularly appealing bluffing spot for villain given that we have a bunch of hands in our range that aren't perceived to fold in general (AA/KK/AQ).
June 24, 2019 | 11:59 a.m.
my idea that Ace is somewhat blankish because people rarely x/R those and mostly calling small bets (AK/AQ for example) so when he bets polar he is not having any Ace in his range In my opinion
I'm not sure if we get to assume this againts a recreational. How recreational is he exactly?
June 22, 2019 | 1:36 p.m.
How tight would you open preflop? I'm assuming we need to open much tighter than normal given that we win the blind so rarely and the pot gets big more often than not.
June 14, 2019 | 7:32 p.m.
Right now I'm opening 85% of hands on the button and am continuing with 43% of all hands vs. 3bet.
This is a huge mistake. You should never raise a hand with the intention of folding to a 3bet when you're expecting to face a 3bet 75% of the time. My plan would be to open much tighter, never fold to a 3bet and 4bet linear range.
June 14, 2019 | 7:30 p.m.
Preflop call is actually very standard, folding seems like a big mistake to me.
Your play seems good overall, I would play it the same way pretty much everytime againts almost anyone.
I wouldn't advocate raising the flop. In equilibrium you're not doing much raising to begin with being IP in a 3bet pot, and a hand like A2 doesn't even benefit from raising as much as some other hands. Having A in your hand actually incentivices you to let hands like AK/AQ see more cards, whereas a hand like 77 would benefit more from the protection. That said I wouldn't really raise 77 either.
Raising sets seems like a pretty big mistake to me, because you need 0 protection and you can easily get the stacks in even if villain checks at some point.
June 14, 2019 | 1:01 a.m.
Wow nice, congratulations and welcome!!
June 10, 2019 | 8:15 p.m.
People play casino games where they know they have virtually no chance of winning.
As far as I know, most casino games have a return rate of 90% or more, so pretty similar to what a recreational players is going to get at a poker table.
You still haven't explained, at all, why this guy should win a pot in this spot ever.
What do you mean. He has 15,91% equity with his hand againts your hand. Who told you that the best hand or the best play should win everytime?
June 8, 2019 | 7:25 p.m.
But if the monetary result of the session, after making the best decisions, never equates to much profit as beats just erase what you've made winning
I don't know what to tell you. If this is true, how come some players win month after month for years
June 8, 2019 | 7:21 p.m.
Flop is pretty close as played though, I wonder if we ought to just check/fold. BTN cbet shove should be pretty strong despite him having less than half pot behind, I don't think he is just shoving AJ or something into 2 players.
Shoving ourselves is probably better than check/calling, although I'm not sure about that either.
Edit. Yeah I don' think it's a shove either. SB is deep too.
June 8, 2019 | 7:07 p.m.
Hi, I fixed the post a little bit (it's bet-raise-3bet, not bet-3bet-4bet).
Villain is probably not supposed to raise TPWK without a BDFD on the flop againts your big cbet size. As played your 3bet size is very big and it basically forces villain to play his range as shove or fold for the most part, therefore shove > call, although it's probably fold > shove > call.
I would size down the 3bet size in general but I guess it worked out this time. :P
June 8, 2019 | 3 p.m.
But if the monetary result of the session, after making the best decisions, never equates to much profit as beats just erase what you've made winning: What's the point of the game?
You need to stop this dumb negativity. You either accept the math or you don't.
June 8, 2019 | 1:21 p.m.
Villain is entitled to win the hand 15,91% of the time on the turn. Terrible players winning sometimes is a good thing because that makes them keep playing. Nobody plays chess or any other game that has no variance for money because it's very easy for weaker players to know that they have no chance of winning.
June 8, 2019 | 1:19 p.m.
Guys above nailed it. I will add something to think about that might be helpful: what are you perceived to have in this spot after calling flop and turn bets and would villain try to bluff you off of that range on the river?
May 19, 2019 | 4:02 p.m.
I like the photo
May 19, 2019 | 3:57 p.m.
I would probably check the turn. Going for three streets of value will be pretty marginal on most runouts.
I would check/fold the river. You shouldn't really beat any valuehands and villain can have a ton of hands that beat you while not really having air very often.
May 19, 2019 | 3:56 p.m.
Looks like CO posted a blind preflop, so I would size up to 2 bucks atleast. I would also size up on the flop given that CO is likely a fish, we generally get more value from fishes with bigger sizings.
Pretty sick river spot. I wouldn't be able to fold because there are really only 3 combos of 44 that beat us. It's definitely possible that villain has AQ himself, even A6 is not impossible if he happens to be the type of player who overplays valuehands.
May 8, 2019 | 6:12 p.m.
Preflop call is indeed marginal, but could work againts weaker players. UTG has a short stack, so there's that.
Raising becomes better than calling when we have a certain amount of fold equity. UTG barreling 3way on AJT-board seems quite strong to me, so I doubt we have much fold equity at any point, therefore I would just call flop and turn.
May 8, 2019 | 1:51 p.m.
Great video once again!
30:35 the K8s hand, I was just wondering as to why you think that the turn overbet is a mistake by the opponent. My PIO sim is liking the 166% size over 33% and 70% sizes.
39:40 with KK, did you end up calling the river because the hand is so high up in your range or because "this is so ridiculous", meaning that the line is volatile enough to just click the call againts? I'm thinking that KK is not necessarily that high up in your range anymore on the river given that you have no blockers to value hands and KK is probably just a pure bluffcatcher at this point.
May 8, 2019 | 8:41 a.m.
A lot of exploitative plays done with confidence - I love it!
A while back I was listening to some of the old joeingram1 podcast episodes and the episode that you were on came up. I recall you saying that you're pretty close to retirement from poker (back in 2016 or something). Apparently you're still grinding or atleast making videos, still too much money to be made or just enjoying it enough to keep going?
April 23, 2019 | 5:53 p.m.
I'm guessing that a small size betting range contains more 4x-hands, therefore our kicker is more relevant, therefore we raise A4 more often because we dominate other 4x-hands. Againts a bigger bet we're up againts a more polarized range, therefore our kicker matters less and having the backdoor equity that J provides becomes more valuable.