I had a losing day after a long winning streak. I am sure it is because of over-confidence.
Don't read too much into daily results, those are mostly determined by variance.
I'm not exactly sure what "playing too confidently" means. One (and only) thing that comes to mind is that we overvalue our assumptions about how the game works and/or how our opponents are playing when we're actually just wrong or missing some major piece of the puzzle.
July 17, 2021 | 9:58 p.m.
MDF model only works if bluffs have 0 equity in the pot. That is clearly not the case in most preflop situations (some of your defends are calls so "bluffs" realize some equity), so the MDF model doesn't work. Don't use it for preflop!
April 7, 2021 | 12:05 a.m.
Turn bet seems pretty nice to me against a really wide and weak range.
I would call the river. It's very easy for villain to bluff too often on such a dry runout if he is ever inclined to float turn and bluff river.
April 1, 2021 | 12:32 p.m.
Yeah I would also fold preflop. Not crazy about the turn bet either, this is a flop that hits the 4bettor extremely well and even when he checks, I would expect to be up against a very strong range that we can't bet a lot against. A strategy that just cbets everything and occasionally checks some KK/QQ type of things is not that uncommon either.
March 15, 2021 | 3:54 a.m.
Looking at a turn report, it's one of the worst cards for our range's equity behind a bunch of 5, 6, 7 and 8s. Why is this the case here? I thought we would have more Jx in range.
A big chunk of our advantage in 3bet pots as the aggressor comes from having overpairs. Cards that reduce the "nuttiness" of our overpairs generally makes us want to play more passively with our range. On the flop our overpairs are extremely strong, whereas on the turn we're in a situation where our overpairs are just decent and both players have a lot of Jx.
March 15, 2021 | 3:47 a.m.
Yeah I like a slight overbet, we only really want to be betting a straight or a bluff so our range is extremely polarized. But I wouldn't go absolutely huge either because villain can also have 8x sometimes so going overly large shrinks villains calling range to a point where he only calls 8x.
March 15, 2021 | 3:38 a.m.
It all depends on what you're trying to do. You can always figure out the best sizing(s) by adding and removing different sizes from your sims and comparing EVs.
I think simplifying our strategy is very good and even necessary. That said, if you always use only one sizing in every sim, you never get to see how other sizes work. I think it's fine for our sims to be complicated, as long as you don't have any delusions about being able to execute that strategy in game. Our goal with solvers should be to understand the game better, not to "see how to play".
March 13, 2021 | 3:52 p.m.
I definitely underestimated the value of having structure at the beginning. Poker provides you with a lot of freedom and very little structure. Not needing to use an alarm clock is a luxury but can also make things more difficult.
Regarding finances, I think a lot of people go pro too early. It's hard to build a bankroll and move up at stakes when a big portion of your earnings go to living expenses each month. It's also very stressful.
Feb. 15, 2021 | 4:10 p.m.
I'd limp, but that could be because I'm impatient in a live setting.
Feb. 12, 2021 | 10:41 a.m.
A) when we use the smaller sizing with a range bet, I think we bring a player like this close to equilibrium, because he will accurately decipher that we are betting all of our range/may think we have a sizing tell and therefore float wider/check raise more.
This sounds to me like giving a lot of credit to a player who limps and coldcalls 3bets with bad stuff.
Fishes tend to be fairly inelastic to sizings so I'm suspicious of the theory that he would overdefend against 1/3 and underdefend against 2/3. I guess some of them might.
Feb. 12, 2021 | 10:39 a.m.
You always have a range of hands, and your overall range has an impact on the EV of all the hands that are in that range.
Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. The mother of the first chicken wasn't a chicken.
Feb. 12, 2021 | 10:25 a.m.
Using the MDF, we look at the portion of our range that we need to call in order to remain unexploitable by bluffs. Based on pot odds, we actually call the portion of hands that makes the call a winning play.
You got it.
MDF is not applicaple in all situations, it is most useful in pure bluffcatching situations on the river.
Jan. 25, 2021 | 12:41 a.m.
Is that a good reason to fold?
I don't think so. Because AQ is such a strong hand, I would need something more scientific to justify folding.
Aug. 3, 2020 | 1:32 p.m.
I would generally call AQ here because it's just fairly strong in terms of absolute hand strenght and villain can definitely have AQ for value himself. But I agree that it's not particularly exciting against a tight opponent who generally doesn't show up with a lot of bluffs in big pots. You can fold it with reads I suppose but defaulting to folding seems a little excessive to me.
Aug. 2, 2020 | 11:54 p.m.
Surely you hit a pair or a draw of some sort more than 13% of the time, right?
Generally speaking you can play suited connectors from later positions, but you should probably fold a hand like 54s from UTG. Folding them always in every situation seems like a pretty big mistake.
Aug. 2, 2020 | 11:51 p.m.
Yeah, it's a spectrum thing rather than a yes or no thing in many situations. Unfortunately I can't thing of a simple "system" for choosing bluff combination, it just happens to be one of the more complicated things in poker.
Aug. 2, 2020 | 11:38 p.m.
Limpers are almost exclusively recreational players and they play very passively. When you raise the limps you often get called, rarely re-raised and sometimes they fold.
My approach is to just raise roughly the same range I would open raise to begin with, expect from the small blind where you're out of position and you also have the option to complete your blind with great pot odds.
Their position hardly matters because most of the time these players aren't positionally aware.