Shoving the river doesn't make a ton of sense to me because vast majority of villains range is going to be AK and then some KK/AA, so shove doesn't really accomplish anything unless villain calls with AK, which is probably not going to happen.
As for check/fold or check/call on the river, not quite sure tbh. I'm tempted to call because villain has AK quite often on the river as opposed to KK+ that probably bets the turn fairly often. AJ is not impossible either.
Nov. 3, 2019 | 11:08 p.m.
Yeah it seems like you understand the dynamic for the most part. I would just add that by being the BB caller, we're already supposed to overfold againts a cbet from an MDF perspective.
The term "overfold" is problematic these days because I'm never quite sure if people mean it in relation to MDF model or equilibrium. I think some people have this confusion where they insist upon not "overfolding" using the MDF model and assuming that to be optimal, which is not true, as we see in this spot for example.
Nov. 3, 2019 | 11:02 p.m.
5 hands tells us very little, so I would be careful about labeling him anything yet, because a premature labeling might induce you to make some questionable adjustments with very limited info.
Turn is probably just a fold, although villains sizing is very small. Againts a standard 2/3 sizing my strategy is to mainly continue with Jx and draws and then some TT/99 without a diamond. Againts a small sizing we can expand our calling range a little bit but I'm not exactly sure how much.
Oct. 31, 2019 | 9:30 p.m.
Yeah, I would fold preflop with this hand. You should mostly enter the pot with a 3bet in this formation and maybe call with some solid hands like JTs/88/77. Maybe you can expand your calling range a little bit if there are (passive) fishes behind. The problem with calling in general is that you can get squeezed out of the pot rather often because there are 3 players behind and you're not even guaranteed to have position postflop when you're CO.
Flop is a fold, your continues are mostly pairs and flushdraws in this spot.
Turn is a call and river seems like a call aswell. The main problem I have with folding is that villain could easily valuebet KQ himself. He can also bluff, so those two factors make it a call for me. You only need roughly 28% equity to make the call, shouldn't be too hard when you dominate some potential valuehands. Having a Q blocker is also very relevant because it is less likely that villain has AQ or QQ.
Oct. 31, 2019 | 9:23 p.m.
I would probably size up a little bit on the flop and shove (blank) turns, makes things a little bit easier for us. That said going smaller on the flop and on the turn is fine aswell and in fact probably closer to what a solver would do.
Somewhat interesting that villain found a fold with AJ. I think you can find some decently profitable bluffing spots againts that player, given that he is supposedly loose player preflop.
Oct. 31, 2019 | 9:13 p.m.
I'm calling because I'm not willing to give villain enough credit for being polarized efficiently, given that he is a fish. I could see him betting Tx or whatever often enough to make a call, we need to be right less than 1/4 of the time.
Oct. 19, 2019 | 12:12 p.m.
Flop fold makes sense for sure and the fact that raising is more of a thing than calling makes sense aswell.
Folding makes sense because Kxx hits the 4bettor super hard so his range is very strong to the point where he can cbet his entire range and we still have a bad situation with a hand like JJ. Even when he has all of his bluffs, the amount of value hands compared to bluffing hands is relatively high and our equity realization is very poor aswell, because villain can keep up the aggression on the turn and make us fold with his bluffs and again, there's not much we can do to that given the strenght of villains range. Note that the traditional MDF model doesn't work when other player has a stronger range.
Raising makes sense because the SPR is low. Protection gets more important and we don't run into the problem of putting in too much money in to the pot because there is hardly anything left, so we basically just get it in with enough equity overall.
Sept. 27, 2019 | 7:08 p.m.
Both turn and river bet are not very good in my mind, our hand has great showdown value and not very good blockers for bluffing either. I wouldn't really bluff the turn or the river with hands that don't have J or T in them, because those are the essential blockers to have in this situation where villain can have all 16 combos of JT. Check turn, as played check river for sure.
Sept. 24, 2019 | 9:46 p.m.
Not a huge fan of the flop play, 3way we're supposed to defend less and our hand is marginal even in heads-up situation. As played turn and river are very marginal aswell because of how strong villains range is both on the turn and on the river after calling the turn raise.
Sept. 20, 2019 | 10:42 p.m.
The EV differences between different sizes are very slim in theory, so it really just depends on what type of strategy you want to be using. Cbetting 100% with 1/3 sizing is an alright strategy, but you can also use some bigger sizes and checks. You may have some extra incentive to go bigger againts a passive recreational.
Sept. 17, 2019 | noon
Very close spot I would say. Turn is already a mix between bet and check in theory, because getting 3 streets of value is really hard and our hand is very vulnerable to check/raise. I'm probably leaning more towards checking in general because population in general struggles to make appropriate amount of herocalls with one pair hands in this spot. Checking turn is also a very viable strategy.
Sept. 16, 2019 | noon
Seems like a pretty clear shove to me, JJ and AJ are shoving on the turn pretty often I would imagine. If you think villain is folding all one pair hands here on the river, you have a very profitable bluffing spot. Are you bluffing all of your bluffs?
Sept. 16, 2019 | 11:49 a.m.
It's not necessarily a problem. And you can check your value hands on the turn aswell.
And if you really want to dive ínto theory, let's go all the way shall we: we're too vulnerable againts a check/raise if we bet all of our gutshots on the turn.
Sept. 15, 2019 | 12:53 p.m.
From a theory perspective the difference between different sizes tends to be really small in these types of situations. You are basically free to do whatever you think works best againts your opponent. I tend to lean towards checking, we don't "have" to bet here. In fact checking is probably the most frequent play in theory. But like I said, the EV difference between all the options tend to be really small in a vacuum.
Sept. 15, 2019 | 11:01 a.m.
T9s gets to the river as call flop call turn most of the time in the PIO sim aswell, and yet PIO shoves 27% of the time. PIO doesn't shove very thinly for value though, it's really just T9 and 77 for value + appropriate amount of bluffs.
If you think shoving 77 is too thin, then you can overbet shove disproportionate amount of bluffs, because villain will end up folding way too often. If villain folds all one pair hands, AJ becomes a pretty juicy shove.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 6:34 p.m.
So I solver the spot and this is what PIO does on the river. Shove is the most frequent sizing with block bet being a very close second. AJ seems to like checking a lot which is a slight surprise to me, although it does some block betting. It seems like block betting and checking have roughly the same EV whereas 2/3 pot and shove goes negative. It seems like bluffshoving requires a blocker to nutted hands, so A7/A8/AT do some shoving, blocking either straights or sets. I guess all things considered AJ is not that great of a hand to bluff given the lack of blockers to villains nutted hands, AT and even A8/A7 like bluffing way more. That said if we can expect a disproportionate amount of folds from one pair hands, we can definitely profit with AJ aswell.
I also think the only bluff combos he’s really show up with is ATdd, AJdd, and JT, making 6 combos., so not sure about the c/c
Yeah maybe check/call is a bit too ambitious
Sept. 14, 2019 | 4:31 p.m.
You should have equity advantage on the turn so you can keep betting pretty often. I would probably bet pretty often with my range using a smaller sizing in order to push equity. Checking is not inherently bad but you can definitely do betting.
I would just check the river with AK, I don't think AK is supposed to do any bluffing unless villain overfolds a lot, it has some decent amount of showdown value and you have other hands to bluff with.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 11:28 a.m.
Seems like a fine bluff to me. Villain has rarely anything better than one pair and your hand is excellent for bluffing aswell.
What comes to sizing, I don't really have a favourite. I think you can do anything from a small block bet to a shove, depending on how you perceive your opponent to respond.
Check/calling is not out of the question either, depending on how villain plays againts a check. There are profiles who bluff all their bluffs and valuebet very narrow, so their ranges tilt towards bluffs.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 9:57 a.m.
Folding seems fine. Againts a range of two pair+ and some AcQx type of bluffs your equity realization is pretty bad and none of your outs are nutted.
Preflop call seems perfectly fine, especially when villains stats are pretty aggro over a small sample (less likely that he is a nit).
Sept. 14, 2019 | 7:41 a.m.
I f I get in a blinding rage driving, nothing changes. I don't speed I don't anything, drive perfect, maybe screaming legit upset but drive perfect.
This is probably not quite true, I'm pretty sure that the average driving performance decreases more or less the more emotional you get, atleast in the form of being more likely to drive fast etc.
how can I get the parts of the brain that regulate driving in any condition to , how can I play poker and not even remember the session. Like oh I got home but don't even remember the drive(but drove fine)
Poker is more cognitively demanding and therefore requires your highest brain capacities to function. If you're playing in a way that is purely automatic, you're putting in too little effort in my mind. So I don't think you can compare playing poker and driving a car in this regard.
How can I regulate even just my B game to the unconscious.
This question is more reasonable. The answer is practice, I don't think there's much else to it. The more you practice something the more automatic it gets. But that doesn't mean that the goal is to become a robot that does every single decision automatically, because that just means that you've stopped learning. And the learning should never stop when you're talking about a game as complicated as poker. There's always more to learn.
So don't play poker when you're "raging", your ability to learn and play your best is not at your disposal in that state.
Don't drive a car either for that matter.