Samu Patronen's avatar

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Samu Patronen

3538 points

Flop fold makes sense for sure and the fact that raising is more of a thing than calling makes sense aswell.

Folding makes sense because Kxx hits the 4bettor super hard so his range is very strong to the point where he can cbet his entire range and we still have a bad situation with a hand like JJ. Even when he has all of his bluffs, the amount of value hands compared to bluffing hands is relatively high and our equity realization is very poor aswell, because villain can keep up the aggression on the turn and make us fold with his bluffs and again, there's not much we can do to that given the strenght of villains range. Note that the traditional MDF model doesn't work when other player has a stronger range.

Raising makes sense because the SPR is low. Protection gets more important and we don't run into the problem of putting in too much money in to the pot because there is hardly anything left, so we basically just get it in with enough equity overall.

Sept. 27, 2019 | 7:08 p.m.

I'm sure the EV sacrifice from playing short isn't worth

What makes you say that playing short is sacrificing EV compared to playing deeper?

Sept. 25, 2019 | 10:58 a.m.

KJo is probably just a fold preflop with rake againts a tight UTG opening range.

Sept. 24, 2019 | 9:50 p.m.

I have no idea. Does anyone else know?

Sept. 24, 2019 | 9:48 p.m.

Both turn and river bet are not very good in my mind, our hand has great showdown value and not very good blockers for bluffing either. I wouldn't really bluff the turn or the river with hands that don't have J or T in them, because those are the essential blockers to have in this situation where villain can have all 16 combos of JT. Check turn, as played check river for sure.

Sept. 24, 2019 | 9:46 p.m.

Not a huge fan of the flop play, 3way we're supposed to defend less and our hand is marginal even in heads-up situation. As played turn and river are very marginal aswell because of how strong villains range is both on the turn and on the river after calling the turn raise.

Sept. 20, 2019 | 10:42 p.m.

The EV differences between different sizes are very slim in theory, so it really just depends on what type of strategy you want to be using. Cbetting 100% with 1/3 sizing is an alright strategy, but you can also use some bigger sizes and checks. You may have some extra incentive to go bigger againts a passive recreational.

Sept. 17, 2019 | noon

Easy call againts a recreational player, he can valuebet worse and bluff.

Sept. 17, 2019 | 11:28 a.m.

Yeah, seems like a fine bet to me. It's probably a mixed strategy in theory so you're free to go with whatever you think works best againts your opponent.

Sept. 16, 2019 | 12:37 p.m.

Very close spot I would say. Turn is already a mix between bet and check in theory, because getting 3 streets of value is really hard and our hand is very vulnerable to check/raise. I'm probably leaning more towards checking in general because population in general struggles to make appropriate amount of herocalls with one pair hands in this spot. Checking turn is also a very viable strategy.

Sept. 16, 2019 | noon

Seems like a pretty clear shove to me, JJ and AJ are shoving on the turn pretty often I would imagine. If you think villain is folding all one pair hands here on the river, you have a very profitable bluffing spot. Are you bluffing all of your bluffs?

Sept. 16, 2019 | 11:49 a.m.

It's not necessarily a problem. And you can check your value hands on the turn aswell.

And if you really want to dive ínto theory, let's go all the way shall we: we're too vulnerable againts a check/raise if we bet all of our gutshots on the turn.

Sept. 15, 2019 | 12:53 p.m.

From a theory perspective the difference between different sizes tends to be really small in these types of situations. You are basically free to do whatever you think works best againts your opponent. I tend to lean towards checking, we don't "have" to bet here. In fact checking is probably the most frequent play in theory. But like I said, the EV difference between all the options tend to be really small in a vacuum.

Sept. 15, 2019 | 11:01 a.m.

T9s gets to the river as call flop call turn most of the time in the PIO sim aswell, and yet PIO shoves 27% of the time. PIO doesn't shove very thinly for value though, it's really just T9 and 77 for value + appropriate amount of bluffs.

If you think shoving 77 is too thin, then you can overbet shove disproportionate amount of bluffs, because villain will end up folding way too often. If villain folds all one pair hands, AJ becomes a pretty juicy shove.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 6:34 p.m.

So I solver the spot and this is what PIO does on the river. Shove is the most frequent sizing with block bet being a very close second. AJ seems to like checking a lot which is a slight surprise to me, although it does some block betting. It seems like block betting and checking have roughly the same EV whereas 2/3 pot and shove goes negative. It seems like bluffshoving requires a blocker to nutted hands, so A7/A8/AT do some shoving, blocking either straights or sets. I guess all things considered AJ is not that great of a hand to bluff given the lack of blockers to villains nutted hands, AT and even A8/A7 like bluffing way more. That said if we can expect a disproportionate amount of folds from one pair hands, we can definitely profit with AJ aswell.

I also think the only bluff combos he’s really show up with is ATdd, AJdd, and JT, making 6 combos., so not sure about the c/c

Yeah maybe check/call is a bit too ambitious

Sept. 14, 2019 | 4:31 p.m.

You should have equity advantage on the turn so you can keep betting pretty often. I would probably bet pretty often with my range using a smaller sizing in order to push equity. Checking is not inherently bad but you can definitely do betting.

I would just check the river with AK, I don't think AK is supposed to do any bluffing unless villain overfolds a lot, it has some decent amount of showdown value and you have other hands to bluff with.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 11:28 a.m.

Seems like a fine bluff to me. Villain has rarely anything better than one pair and your hand is excellent for bluffing aswell.

What comes to sizing, I don't really have a favourite. I think you can do anything from a small block bet to a shove, depending on how you perceive your opponent to respond.

Check/calling is not out of the question either, depending on how villain plays againts a check. There are profiles who bluff all their bluffs and valuebet very narrow, so their ranges tilt towards bluffs.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 9:57 a.m.

Folding seems fine. Againts a range of two pair+ and some AcQx type of bluffs your equity realization is pretty bad and none of your outs are nutted.

Preflop call seems perfectly fine, especially when villains stats are pretty aggro over a small sample (less likely that he is a nit).

Sept. 14, 2019 | 7:41 a.m.

I think I'd fold the flop againts this particular opponent, 11/9/4,2 is super nitty. Villain did end up having a bluff that is not specifically AJs which is very surprising to me given his stats.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 7:28 a.m.

I f I get in a blinding rage driving, nothing changes. I don't speed I don't anything, drive perfect, maybe screaming legit upset but drive perfect.

This is probably not quite true, I'm pretty sure that the average driving performance decreases more or less the more emotional you get, atleast in the form of being more likely to drive fast etc.

how can I get the parts of the brain that regulate driving in any condition to , how can I play poker and not even remember the session. Like oh I got home but don't even remember the drive(but drove fine)

Poker is more cognitively demanding and therefore requires your highest brain capacities to function. If you're playing in a way that is purely automatic, you're putting in too little effort in my mind. So I don't think you can compare playing poker and driving a car in this regard.

How can I regulate even just my B game to the unconscious.

This question is more reasonable. The answer is practice, I don't think there's much else to it. The more you practice something the more automatic it gets. But that doesn't mean that the goal is to become a robot that does every single decision automatically, because that just means that you've stopped learning. And the learning should never stop when you're talking about a game as complicated as poker. There's always more to learn.

So don't play poker when you're "raging", your ability to learn and play your best is not at your disposal in that state.

Don't drive a car either for that matter.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 9:08 a.m.

By raising you deny villain from realizing his equity, which is why OOP strategies are generally pretty aggressive in these situations. Think of it like this: By just calling, you not only let IP see the turn card, but you also give him the option to checkback the turn and see the river card aswell. So by raising you effectively deny villain from seeing two free cards, which is very valuable.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 8:56 a.m.

I love the isolation sizing preflop, if I had a nickel for every live hand history that has a hero isolating too small againts several limpers and getting called by all of them, I could play highrollers without backers.

I'd probably cbet smaller on the flop, many fishes are quite fit or fold on the flop, but maybe that's more the case with passive types rather than splashy ones.

Turn is close, it really comes down to how villain is playing. Is he the type of splashy fish who can do bluffraising and stuff and is he actually folding any pairs on the turn?

Sept. 12, 2019 | 5:11 a.m.

Comment | Samu Patronen commented on Just for fun !

What's this new massive overbet shove on T87 meta all about?

I'm guessing you shoved because you don't want to see a bad turn card. Not a good enough reason to make villain fold hands like QT. Bad runouts happen.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 4:23 a.m.

Both turn and river are going to be mixed strategies in theory, so you either make an exploitative adjustment one way or another or you mix calling and folding somehow.

Sept. 11, 2019 | 12:25 p.m.

Td shouldn't really matter because OOP is not supposed to bluff diamonds on the river. Having the diamond matters on the turn though.

Sept. 11, 2019 | 12:21 p.m.

Preflop is just a fold, very hard to make a profit with a hand this bad from these positions. Our raise size is too small aswell, we want to have some fold equity.

Flop size is extremely small aswell. Again, we want to generate some fold equity, with this sizing we should get close to 0 folds.

Turn size is certainly not too small. Definitely not an optimal sizing, but it's hard to say that it's completely unreasonable given the result of the hand. A standard bet would be somewhere between 0,50-1,50 though. Shoving can work pretty nicely againts someone who is not capable of folding a draw (really big fish). The main problem with shoving is that we make villain fold so/too many hands that have 0 equity againts our hand (A8, A7 and so on).

Sept. 11, 2019 | 6:14 a.m.

This is a very clear calldown to me. The main reason being that villain is clearly a fish, which means that he is definitely capable of bluffing AND "valuebetting" a hand as weak as Tx.

Postflop af 0.9, 28 hands

The sample size is way too small to draw any definite conclusions about the way he plays. And even if villain turned out to be passive, who's to say that he couldn't valuebet a worse hand (fishes do that often).

Sept. 10, 2019 | 2:48 p.m.

Would love to hear what other good players have to say about WWSF%, should it be over 50% from all other positions than BB? Im not an stat expert :(-

There are some factors that have an impact on your WWSF, for example if you play loose preflop, your WWSF is going to be lower naturally. So I wouldn't use that as the only factor in determining how good a player is. It's much like red line in that regard.

what other good players have to say

Sorry for assuming.

other good players

I admire the confidence.

Sept. 10, 2019 | 2:44 p.m.

Your stats are very weak/tight. You are calling too often preflop as opposed to raising and you're also not finding enough bluffs postflop. On a positive note you're still a small winner so you're probably not making very many big mistakes, but you're clearly leaning towards risk-aversion side of the spectrum.

I would gradually start to open up my game and be a little bit more aggressive, starting from preflop. Watch some videos and see how pros are playing preflop and finding spots to bluff.

Sept. 10, 2019 | 12:33 p.m.

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