Well, I think his range on the turn based on sizing is somewhat polarized. As other mentioned he has a decent amount of draws or some random bluffs and then maybe some sets or strong Ax (with weaker Ax he would use a smaller sizing). So his range is mainly from AQ,AK,44,JJ,AA,A8,A4 and bluffs.
Since on the river he has still a decent amount of bluffs, I think he is still gonna bet with them. Even with the boats and even with the hands like AK and AQ he is able to make a value bet. So then by checking on the river we are missing only value from A4 and A8 (sometimes from AQ and AK and rarely from weaker Ax), but compared to his bluffs even if he would bet more Ax on the turn, he has more bluffs than the Ax combos. (Hands like KQ,KT,QT,T9,Q9...)
That being said if you donk this river, you will get a value from Ax and earn nothing from his bluffs (except of the case when he is bluffraising the river, but I am not that confident about it, because you are really repping the Jx tho, so I would give him few spews and that's it).
But if you just check the river you can earn money from his bluffs which I think is more than the value from the Ax hands. Because he has more bluffing combos than the Ax. And you also won't be facing to a tough decision if you get raised.
Jan. 17, 2019 | 7:04 a.m.
Maybe the important fact is the timing of his bets. Because he just insta bet turn and river.
That was also one of the reasons why I decided to call it down.
And that's all reads which I had.
Jan. 15, 2019 | 4:17 p.m.
Hey guys, have some uncertainties about this hand.
Up to the river is somewhat standard. (Was wondering about 3bet shove on the flop, but he can have a bunch of air)
But on the river.. to be honest against reg I would fold, since this line (especially with that sizings) is pretty underbluffed.
Well, this player is a fish as you can see. Sample is only about 60 hands, but its enough to say, that he is a volatile player profile.
I called the river, because he was quite active at the table so far
In one hand he cold call 4bet with 77 and on a board T86 rainbow, pushed all in against my 1/5cbet.
So I was like why should I fold this time? What if he is playing now something like the 77 before.
I made a decision based on fact that he is able to bluff more than he should and even that he can take this line with something totally random. I also thought, that he may value bet AK and AQ with some non-zero frequency.
What do you think? How would your decision-making process looks like?
Jan. 14, 2019 | 1:14 p.m.
I think he is able to play 88 and 7x this way, so we definitely can dominate some part of his value. Also there are a bunch of FDs, so the turn call seems good.
And on the river if all draws miss, we can call. But only on 2-6 and 9 and K rivers, since 7 is not a good river at all (cause 7x are still in his range) and 8, because of 88. Other overcards are bad, because then a lot of his draws will be paired and our hand will be dominated.
Still don't forget the fishy factor that he can do this with really stupid hand like 92o or so.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 3:51 p.m.
Okay, since I have a range advantage on this texture, I should be betting more than I tend to bet, so yeah KT could be on the top of my range which is quite important. (My bad :-))
Now let's talk about his range on the river. I think that's the main question. About your described villains range, I have few contradictions.
Firstly I really don't think that people are turning pairs into a bluff (hands like JsTs,QsTs,Ts9s,6s5s) with some optimal frequency.
Then I would add all QJs combos, since they have a gutter on the flop (maybe just 3of them).
In addition villain won't bet 3streets with all the other FDs 100% of the time and also with the mentioned AQ (he may also some of the AQ combos 3bet preflop or just check back on the flop).
That being said after this it becomes much closer than you described. But on the other side I have to say that thanks you now I see this spot from a bit different perspective. That being said it's not a clear fold obviously, but still don't think that this is a clear call. Maybe something between it. So I would be really grateful for some other opinions :-)
Jan. 11, 2019 | 5:20 p.m.
I am checking on the flop a decent part of my range including better hands than my. For instance AK, or maybe even AA and A5 from time to time. So then KT is not as high on my range as you mentioned.
But it is irrelevant if he is betting on the river AQ and AJ for value. But since I said my reasons why I think he is not betting those hands for value, especially if he is a nit, I cant agree with you at this point..
Even if I would in villains shoes, I doubt that I would find a 3 streets of value with hands like AQ or AJ. Because you need at least 50% equity for a profitable value bet. And standard reg at this limit is not calling any Kx or worse pair on the river, so I would expect only Ax hands which he may already fold preflop (I am talking about the weaker Axs).
Some equilab: AJo against AQs-A2s,KTs,AQo-AJo has only 46,88%.
Thats the case when we are calling all Axs on the river and not slowplaying any better hands such as TT or AK. That being said AQ could be a close value bet in some cases. But in fact that on my site players value betting tendencies are a bit tighter than in general, I would rarely expect AQ from villain in this line.
Jan. 11, 2019 | 1:37 p.m.
Hi everyone :-)
After some hand review, decided to post this hand, since I am not sure if my river folds arent too assumptive and exploitable (or just if I am too naive).
I think up to the river its quite standard.
On the river I choose the fold button, because of several reasons:
1. People arent bluffing enough in this line
2. I cant dominate any part of his value betting range
3. His stats seems to be nitty so far 16/14 after 159hands
4. My range isnt capped (especially on this texture, where I think I have a range advantage)
5. My population read is that people arent value betting thin enough.
Is it enough to justify a river fold on almost any runout?
Jan. 10, 2019 | 3:48 p.m.
Okay, if bet the flop, which sizing would you use?
And if he would check/call the flop how would you play the rest of the hand and why?
Because you know, if I start to change my line already on the flop, it's mandatory to know what to do on the later streets :-)
Dec. 12, 2018 | 5:50 p.m.
Yesterday I got some action and few spots when I didnt know how to play correctly. This is one of those hands.
Pre and flop is standard for me. On the turn I think I could bet for protection (from FDs, overcards), but then I would end it up with check/folding a ton of rivers. So decided to check/call and try to induce some of his air.
The river card decreased his Qx combos, so it should be a good for me then!? But he bet a pot and I was like tanking for a 30seconds and afterwards I made a fold just based on his stats (36/35 after 65hands, which is pretty small sample, but I would say his calling range after decent sample would be much on a tighter side.. or maybe I am just too optimistic), but also that I assume the average reg at these stakes would call with my exact hand and even with a hands like JJ-88. That being said I think that he was trying to get max value from those hands.
Would you choose some different line?
And would you call this river?
Dec. 12, 2018 | 2:25 p.m.
If you call the turn with intention to fold on this river when all his draws missed, you need to have a decent read that villain is going to check most of his bluffs. Which is I would say too assumptive.
I know that this is pretty underbluffed line which allows us to make some exploitative folds, but I don't have enough confidence to say that villain is checking the river with most of his turn bluffs, so I would either fold already on the turn or just call down turn and rivers like this
Dec. 7, 2018 | 12:16 p.m.
See your logic, but if your plan is call turn to fold river.. to be honest I would say his range on the turn is somewhat polarized which means he is going to continue barelling off on the river with more than optimal frequency. That being said we should make our decision already on the turn. So I would either call turn with intention to call good rivers (when draws busted) or just give up already on the turn.
Nov. 29, 2018 | 9:37 a.m.
Isnt it too optimistic to say that he is going to raise A2 for value? Because we are quite polarized on the turn by AJ+ and equity driven bluffs. So I would say its really close value bet on the turn with A2s, especially when we are quite deep -- imo he has to fold vs reshove. Even though he may raise some of these combos already on the flop. That being said A2s is pretty rare to see in this line.
About the A6s.. again I would say 50% of the time he is raising this combo already on the flop. Also think that its pretty ambicious to say, that he is raising this combo 100% of the time on the turn. At some non-zero frequency he might 3bet some of those suited Aces preflop.
As the result we need to find some bluffs to make a profitable calldown So the question is if he is going to raise the turn and bet the river with enough combodraws to justify a calldown on most runouts?
In addition: the turn raises are in general pretty underbluffed + the fact that our range is polarized and well protected makes me concerned if we really should be calling this turn?
Nov. 28, 2018 | 8:48 a.m.
I wouldn't fold the turn since we can dominate some part of his value betting range (QJ).
But I would fold the river, paradoxically because we can't dominate any part of his value betting range. And also I doubt that he can find enough bluffs on the river to justify a call, especially when he called the flop with one player behind=he had something. That being said since I don't have enough confidence that people are turning pairs into a bluff, I can say that I don't see enough bluffs from villain to justify a river call.
I just wonder.. against a fishy player, what about shoving the turn? To get value from worse hands (maybe some random worse twopairs or rarely from pair+draw or so).
Nov. 10, 2018 | 3:33 p.m.
I would probably make an exploitable fold on the river. Because I doubt that we can find a fold already on the turn since he could value bet worse (for instance A5s) or even though he could have some bluffs like KQs (most of the time only the KdQd).
But on the river I would discount the A5s combo, just because it would be too optimistic to think that he would get enough calls from worse hands. Another fact is that people aren't making enough thin value bets on the river. So his range would be AQ,AK,KdQd, sometimes JJ and maybe some random flush. But he hasn't AQ all the time here since he may just call this hand preflop or make a different play postflop.
About his bluffs.. we will rarely see KQs (which is probably his only natural bluff) so imo his bluffing frequency is about 0 to 5% which is too low to justify a call here. Even the small sizings are usually too valueheavy.
So I would fold based on my thoughts and assumptions.
Nov. 10, 2018 | 3:25 p.m.
Well I would play this hand in the similar way, but would go a bit bigger on the turn, maybe close to a pot and then it becomes more clear fold than now.
Agree, that the ranges are much wider, but the turn raises are in general pretty underbluffed and the assumption that many hands CAN take this line is not equal as this is what the players are doing in the enviroment.
Even I do not think that we will see often some checks from villain on the river and I can not imagine some perfect rivers for us except of A and 5. So even if the turn would be slightly +ev call, the rake factor and the tough river decision (if we would bluffcatch and lost, it may leads to some tilt issues- then we can lost much more money) are probably the main risk factors which may kill advantage of calling the turn.
Nov. 3, 2018 | 7:19 p.m.
Well, but your assumption is that villain is raising KQ on the turn for value, which is I would say too assumptive and not that logical, since we are repping mostly stronger hands for value as I mentioned.
Otherwise it would be a clear call since we are dominating some part of his value and he is also bluffing with some non-zero frequency.
Nov. 3, 2018 | 8:10 a.m.
I am also with Jeff. Don't see worse hands which he would bet for value on the turn. KQ would be too optimistic since we are repping stronger combos for value (except of Q5 and sometimes K5).
And our range on the turn looks somewhat polarized, so that's another reason why I don't think that he is doing this with something merge.
Btw I would size it up a bit on the turn, since he got a lot of pair+gutter.
Oct. 31, 2018 | 9:51 a.m.
Hello, decided to post this hand, just because I want to hear your thoughts and opinions.
Again until the river it is somewhat standard. The river bet could be a bit larger, but wanna get some crying calls from Ax hands. His raise is indicating value I would say from 95 to 100% of the time. But my assumption was that his range is from 77 (sometimes 55) and AK. If he is raising AK for value, then I have kinda breakeven call. Add some non-zero amount of bluffs, can we justify a call? Or is it too assumptive to think that players are raising here AK for a thin value?
Oct. 29, 2018 | 6:58 p.m.
Any reasons for checking the turn? I think he has a bunch of draws, even pair+draw.. basically too many combos against which I think we need a protection.
As played I would fold unless I will have some good read on villain. It's triple broadway texture and his range is really broadway heavy, also the fact that his natural bluffs are either paired or A-high heavy. That being said he has a ton of value hands and few like top candidates for a bluffing.
Oct. 28, 2018 | 6:22 p.m.
I doubt that he is gonna fold his strong and medium pockets at some high rate, because that's the top of his range most of the time. But he also has like bunch of unpaired hands which beat us KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT.. so the river bet is good, but I would make it smaller, because I am pretty sure that he is gonna fold those hands versus almost every sizing.
Oct. 28, 2018 | 6:18 p.m.
Hello, had a really tough session yesterday. This is one of those hands in which I really do not know if it is better to play theory game or not.
Until the river I think it is standard. On the turn he picked up some flushdraws which he may continue bareling on the river. I can imagine some JTo,KJo,T8s,KT hands which are candidates for a bluff. However it is much easier to be overbluffing this spot than underbluffing, but he is overbetting, this line is in general very underbluffed, but we also have a decent blocker on A9 and not blocking any of his busted flushdraws.
Decided to call just because I am too high up in my range + I do not think that he is able to value something worse than trips which means that KK would be a worse call than AQo. Also the board texture and reasons which I mentioned above. What do you think about it?
Some equilab: Meaning that we have to find at least 11bluffs in his range.
Oct. 28, 2018 | 1:32 p.m.
Hey guys, now I am working on my play from BB, so gonna posting hands mainly about it.
Questions about the hand:
1.Wouldnt be better to just raise the flop and continue bareling on most turns? My reasoning for a call was actually his bet sizing. I think it may be a polarization index, or just that he is not cbetting with this sizing his whole range, which means lower fold equity. Also I can call on most blank turns and raise when come some overcard, because then in his range will be a ton of air.
2. Is it okay to just raise this turn? I think our hand hasnt that much showdown value.
V is unknown
Oct. 26, 2018 | 9:24 a.m.
What about betting smallish on the turn? We do not need that much protection, he has a decent amount of 3rd pocket pairs which he would fold vs a 2/3 sizing. So I would choose something like 1/3 to keep his range wide. He may also make some nonsense raises.