MatoStar's avatar

MatoStar

150 points

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: 50nl, TPGK on a flushy turn vs volatile
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (8 Players) MP+1: $20.49
CO: $31.03
BN: $50.00
SB: $43.11
BB: $49.25
UTG: $66.99
UTG+1: $31.12
MP: $50.00 (Hero)
39/10 51
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q K
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.75
Flop ($5.25) 3 K 9
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3.00, UTG+1 calls $3.00
Turn ($11.25) 3 K 9 6
UTG+1 checks, Hero
he has 25.87$ behind. It sucks when we bet and he shoves. But arent we losing one street of value by checking? But vs most of our bets, his possible raise would be shove.
So I see 3 decent options:
1. Check back (bluffcarch river or bet if he checks) - losing less against his made hands, but also earning less vs his KJ,KT,Kxs (thats actually not that many combos) so it seems llke a best option to me, since from 9x and worse we will barely get more than street of value at this point.

2. Bet/call 2/3 of the pot and basically continue w b/b/b plan from the flop. We get max value from his Kx and some AcXx type of hands, but will lose whole stack vs flushes.

3. Bet/fold w 1/5-1/4 sizing. This might becomes pretty exploitable if we assume that he raises only made hands. There is a potential to lose less money vs made hands and earn more against Kx and worse. I mean this option has the biggest potential to be the most and less profitable at the same time :D

Sept. 28, 2020 | 11:59 a.m.

Okay guys, so it seems like you prefer calling over folding. Reasons are because its too high up in our range, right?
Before making this call, I want to be clear that at least one of these 2 statements are true:
1. He is possibly value betting worse.. AJs and QQ are the only possibilities, however, vs our holdings - we rep TPTK+, it doesnt really make much sense, since we are really strong here with few bluffs esp. MW OOP, w the fish involved.
2. He has enough bluffs/draws. Okay, I think we are only talking about equity driven bluffs. 98s,KQs,Q9s and some AdXd are the candidates. I would exclude 98s,Q9s and the weakest Axs, because its a bit loose pre, given the positions. Then we are talking about Ad6d-AdQd,KQs = 8 combos.

Now, lets look at his value region and calculate whats the minimum number of bluffcombos in order to have enough equity to call - 27%. Given his value: JJ (2), TT (2), JTs, 55 = 19,27%. If we add half of his potential bluffs AdQd,AdJd,Ad9d,KcQc, we would end up having 31% equity. Thats fine, however, we are a bit in a grey zone regarding his bluffs - whether he uses SDs over FDs or vice versa.
Thats especially important if the turn comes a diamond. Because if most of his bluffs were FDs, we are basically forced to fold on any turn (except of 5 and maybe T and J).

All in all, it looks like that our opponent needs to bluff some (appr. 33%) of his FDs and SDs. So at this point, I think I would mainly decide on population tendencies and player profile. Both are leaning towards passivity, so yeah even if it might be pretty exploitable, I trust it (so far based on my winrate at this limit).
In addition, if one player starts to exploit us, we will encounter them after some time and take the ev back, so I wouldnt be that scared.

Last, but not least, I agree with you guys that at your limit/site this might be a +ev call, but as I said I think I have collected some pool tendencies which in these close spots tend to be even more underbluffed.

Sept. 28, 2020 | 11:44 a.m.

Heyy, are you still struggling with playing 3bet pots OOP? Are you facing a 3bet too often? Aggro regs arent easy to play, but this might be a counter exploit which may work for some of you!

Lets imagine 1limper, we ISO from the CO to 4.5bb, BTN 3-bets us to 14bb, folded to us. We have for instance A5s
To even start thinking about bluffing, we need to know that villain is pretty aggro 3bettor (or at least normal from the GTO perspective). This is just focusing on certain subset of regs whose are almost in every single pool. However, I believe that most of them are discipline enough and they are just exploiting the pool by doing so. Therefore we can expect decent amount of fold equity in case we make a 4bet shove.

Lets assume villains 3betting range from the BTN: 99+, ATs+, A5s-A4s, KJs+, AJo+, KQo = 116combos- 8,75%. Due to blocker effect, its actually 98. I expect to get called by QQ+ and AK - thats the most common calling range for stacks (some regs might fold even AK or QQ). If they are calling wider - good for us even if we lose for the first time, because we wont be bluffing anymore and start expanding our value region
Anyway, back to the calling range QQ+,AK, which means that we have 1- 27/98 = 0,725100= 72,5% fold equity. So in 72,5% cases we will win a pot of 1+1,5+14= 16,5bb. It means that our net profit is 16,50,725 = 11,9625bb

In case we get called - 27,5%, we have 30,15% equity in a pot of 202,5bb. So our expected winnings are 202 * 0.945 (rake 5,5%) 0,3015= 57,55bb. So we have invested 100, so we are losing 100-57,55= 42,45bb in 27,5% cases = 42,450.275 = 11.67bb

To summarize: winnings 11,9625bb - 11,67bb (losing) = +0,2925
Thats solid! compared with the option of folding and losing immediately 4,5bb. The difference is 4.72925bb per hand!

Any feedback on my calcs would be more than appreciated:)

*Pros:
- good exploit vs aggro reg
- hard to counter exploit since your 4 / 5bet will be low in general since you are doing it only vs specific player profile
- good feeling if it works:)

*Cons
- you are attracting variance which may lead into tilt issues which may cost you much more money than you would ear
- possibly the most observant regs may start tighten up their 3betting range only vs you (nice to have vs hero stat - H2note
- not sure if there are any others, if yes, let me know:)

Cheers

Sept. 26, 2020 | 10:46 a.m.

Heyy, are you still struggling with playing 3bet pots OOP? Are you facing a 3bet too often? Aggro regs arent easy to play, but this might be a counter exploit which may work for some of you!

Lets imagine 1limper, we ISO from the CO to 4.5bb, BTN 3-bets us to 14bb, folded to us. We have for instance A5s.
To even start thinking about bluffing, we need to know that villain is pretty aggro 3bettor (or at least normal from the GTO perspective). This is just focusing on certain subset of regs whose are almost in every single pool. However, I believe that most of them are discipline enough and they are just exploiting the pool by doing so. Therefore we can expect decent amount of fold equity in case we make a 4bet shove.

Lets assume villains 3betting range from the BTN: 99+, ATs+, A5s-A4s, KJs+, AJo+, KQo = 116combos- 8,75%. Due to blocker effect, its actually 98. I expect to get called by QQ+ and AK - thats the most common calling range for stacks (some regs might fold even AK or QQ). If they are calling wider - good for us even if we lose for the first time, because we wont be bluffing anymore and start expanding our value region.
Anyway, back to the calling range QQ+,AK, which means that we have 1- 27/98 = 0,725100= 72,5% fold equity. So in 72,5% cases we will win a pot of 1+1,5+14= 16,5bb. It means that our net profit is 16,50,725 = 11,9625bb

In case we get called - 27,5%, we have 30,15% equity in a pot of 202,5bb. So our expected winnings are 202 * 0.945 (rake 5,5%) 0,3015= 57,55bb. So we have invested 100, so we are losing 100-57,55= 42,45bb in 27,5% cases = 42,450.275 = 11.67bb

To summarize: winnings 11,9625bb - 11,67bb (losing) = +0,2925
Thats solid! compared with the option of folding and losing immediately 4,5bb. The difference is 4.72925bb per hand!

Any feedback on my calcs would be more than appreciated:)

*Pros:*
- good exploit vs aggro regs
- hard to counter exploit since your 4 / 5bet will be low in general since you are doing it only vs specific player profiles
- good feeling if it works:)

Cons
- you are attracting variance which may lead into tilt issues which may cost you much more money than you would earn
- possibly the most observant regs may start tighten up their 3betting range only vs you (nice to have vs hero stat - H2note)
- not sure if there are any others, if yes, let me know:)

Cheers

Sept. 26, 2020 | 10:43 a.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: Overpair got raised OTF 3way
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players) SB: $16.13
BB: $27.42
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $22.57
MP+1: $28.21
CO: $25.00
BN: $30.90
MP+1 19/11 1.2k
3b 4.1
FCB 53
Flop Ag 30
SB 70/10 (10)
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with K K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, MP folds, MP+1 calls $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
Flop ($2.50) T 5 J
SB checks, Hero bets $1.58, MP+1 raises to $4.80, SB folds, Hero
Usually would check at high frequency, but given the fish on small blind, I wanna maximize value and go b/b/b vs him and b/x/b against the reg.
After I got raised, it doesnt seem to be a merge raise (sizing), therefore I expect to be facing a bet OTT pretty often as well. So calling with intention folding to a turn bet, doesnt make that much sense to me. His possible bluffs are KQs, AdQd,98s (if called pre). We do block decent part of them.
Given his 3b stat I think we can exclude QQ for the most part. Maybe thin raise from AJ? On the other hand, maybe JJ are also in his 3betting range..

Sept. 26, 2020 | 9:04 a.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: Donking from passive fish 3bpt
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $62.96
CO: $25.00
BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $25.10
BB: $26.44
UTG: $31.51
47/7 106
Pretty big fish at the table, but mainly for being station
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, MP calls $1.75
wasnt that sure about the 3bet.. his low pfr and 4bb open scared me a bit, but given the bigger open, I am basically even more incentivized to play 3b/fold strategy
Flop ($5.85) 3 T 9
MP bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80
Hmm, was tanking whether to raise or just call. Decided mainly based on the fact that TT-99,T9s and QQ are probably in his range, so raising and getting it in seemed too thin to me.
On the other hand, our hand is pretty vulnerable, but really aggression from passive guys like this are usually pretty alarming, so yeah, dont expect to get bluffed on an overcard..
Turn ($11.45) 3 T 9 5
MP bets $5.47, Hero calls $5.47
Now I think I should have folded.. if he was bluffing with a FD, I am drawing dead. Dominating only some Tx, but its pretty assunptive to expect ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs to be value betting
River ($22.39) 3 T 9 5 4
MP bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00
based on turn call, probably cant fold on this river given his sizing.

Sept. 26, 2020 | 8:26 a.m.

I'd decide mainly based on two data points (btw this is a general guide which you can use every time you face a tough river bet)

  1. Am I dominating any portion of his value betting range? (If yes, it's really hard to justify folding)

  2. Does he have enough bluffs in this line/is this line in general over/underbluffed.

Answers:
1. Yes, A2 might possibly take this line at some frequency and we are also splitting with A4. Otherwise only value is 22,44 and sometimes 53s = 4-8combos.
2. No, I wouldn't be relying on bluffs, I believe this is an underbluffed spot, but since we dominate part of his valuebetting range, I would happily call here.

Sept. 26, 2020 | 7:37 a.m.

Well he definitely has KK-AA at some frequency. I would say 66% KK and 33%AA,= 5combos+1combo AcQc=6
His potential value 99 ( I would say 50% of the time- might fold pre or fastplay). and QQ= 4,5 combos.
I mean, if I know that he 4bets KK+ most of the time, I would be also more sceptical about value betting, however, in FR it's pretty common that those nitty guys are doing everything to avoid KKvsAA. So I believe once he has got KK, he is never gonna fold it+ sometimes AA and that should be enough in order to have a value bet

Sept. 26, 2020 | 5:59 a.m.

Like I've got few hands on him.. saw some 3bet sizes and was playing maximum -4tables. So I'm assuming he isn't a fish

Sept. 25, 2020 | 1:50 p.m.

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) UTG: $31.67
MP: $67.87 (Hero)
UTG+1: $21.91
MP+1: $29.28
MP+2: $25.00
CO: $25.67
BN: $25.00
SB: $29.32
BB: $34.67
16/13 856
SQZ: 6
3bpt cbet 66
Cb IP 70
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.00, UTG+1 folds, MP+1 calls $1.00, MP+2 raises to $3.50, 4 folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.50, MP+1 folds
that squeeze is pretty small.. 14bb to the pot of 10.5bb..23% odds to call
Flop ($8.60) 7 T J
Hero checks, MP+2 bets $2.71, Hero raises to $6.75, MP+2 calls $4.04
I think his range might be JJ+,AQ,AK (maybe AQ not all the time and sometimes TT instead, possibly AJ and KQ). I perceive it as a range cbet given the sizing and his high flop cbet. We are getting good odds to call, but.. dont we wanna charge his AQ.AK? QQ+ cant really shove since we represent a set..
My main reason for raising is that his AQ,AK are going to either bluff us OTT or xb and take a free card (both options arent really good). After we raise, I doubt he would bluff the turn or river with AQ,AK, so we have an easy x/f OTT.
If he is too nitty, he can sometimes fold even QQ here
Turn ($22.10) 7 T J 5
Hero checks, MP+2 checks
I decided to shut down the action, since I prob dont want to test his QQ+ ( should I?) and I beat his AQ,AK
River ($22.10) 7 T J 5 5
Hero checks

Sept. 25, 2020 | 9:58 a.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: Sqz QQ from SB and UTG 4bets 2x
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players) CO: $21.79
BN: $56.44
SB: $29.55 (Hero)
BB: $25.00
UTG: $23.45
UTG+1: $11.14
MP: $25.43
MP+1: $25.12
unknown reg
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with Q Q
2 folds, MP raises to $0.75, MP+1 folds, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, MP raises to $7.25, CO folds, Hero
I expect KK+ most of the time.. need 3 combos of AK in order to have enough equity to call. But I am also a bit afraid of reverse implied odds on low boards.. maybe calling once OTF and hope he wont bluff his few AK on most turns?

Given how passive the pool is, I think I am more inclined to just let this go, but on the other hand we are getting pretty good odds to call.. so any advice then how to navigate the postflop play? If you think that calling>folding

Sept. 25, 2020 | 9:32 a.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: River sizing for value against nits
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) BN: $26.68
SB: $26.25
BB: $27.27
UTG: $64.92
UTG+1: $25.00
MP: $13.15
MP+1: $25.35
MP+2: $25.00
CO: $38.10 (Hero)
He has somewhat higher F3b after decent sample.. And higher FCB as well, so dont mind getting called
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with A 3
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $0.62, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.38
I 3bet this combo only if I have a read to do so.
Flop ($4.35) 3 3 9
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.37, UTG+1 calls $1.37
Turn ($7.09) 3 3 9 4
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.75, UTG+1 calls $4.75
Maybe now I could go slightly bigger since TT-QQ are calling pretty inelastically and AJs,AQs,AK are prob folding. Potentially going 30-40% to get called by AJ,AQ,AK - hands which are drawing dead.
River ($16.59) 3 3 9 4 Q
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets
Okay, lets analyze it against a nitty player profile who is capable of making big river folds and is just tight by nature.
We probably have got 12 combos of TT-JJ, AcQc,KcQc and sometimes KK-AA. Thats the range we wanna focus on (I mean 99,QQ are coolering us and AcKc,AcJc are just folding to any sizing). So it seems like our main target are his pocket pairs, because it makes 12 combos from maybe like 16-18combos which we are targeting.

I would say sth like 20-33% of the pot.. on the other hand, if he is a nit, isnt he folding pretty inelastically vs any sizing those pairs?

Sept. 25, 2020 | 8:59 a.m.

  1. Iso bigger pre

  2. I really hate your river sizing and the fold afterwards.. he has got decent amount of busted FDs and SDs, so you are basically inducing raises from those hands.

  3. Since he posted pre, I would expect that there is pretty high chance that we are dealing with volatile player profile. Therefore I would bet the river much bigger (1/2-2/3). Vs this size, I am not that afraid of getting bluff-raised, because you are repping much stronger range.

  4. Don't get me wrong, I think your line is really good against vast majority of regs at 25nl, however, I don't think this is the case

  5. We are playing reg tables, not zoom, I mean it's subtle, but I would say on reg tables it might get bluffed more often.

  6. Weak players might actually raise for value any Q, because of your sizing. Then we are already dominating part of his valuebetting range, so we have another reason for calling.

Sept. 25, 2020 | 8:20 a.m.

Comment | MatoStar commented on 25z AQo

Turn you gotta bet, if you aren't betting this I'm not sure what you want to bluff on the turn then

I think this is coming from a paradigm of range vs range thinking.. let's zoom out from this hand and talk more from the macro perspective.
If I understand you correctly, you are basically saying that if any combo becomes our only bluff (even if the opponent's range is well-protected) we should bet, in case we have also value hands in our betting range, right?

Sept. 25, 2020 | 8:09 a.m.

Comment | MatoStar commented on 25z AQo

I would probably go b/x/b here. Since I believe he overfolds OTF, so it's much harder to have enough FE OTT, bc the turn card interacts with his flop calling range pretty well.
If he checks the river, his range is pretty linear and I don't mind to go pretty big there.

Sept. 24, 2020 | 12:02 p.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: 3betting the turn as a bluff
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players) SB: $25.00
BB: $28.65
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $26.61
MP: $27.82 (Hero)
MP+1: $28.06
CO: $34.64
BN: $28.23
19/1
3b 0.8
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with T J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop ($1.85) 5 K Q
Hero checks, BN checks
So far he had pretty high bet vs missed cbet so I decided to go for a x/r.
However, my standard play is to just bet 1/2 to fold out his PPs. But dont mind to mix it vs more aggro stabby guys
Turn ($1.85) 5 K Q 4
Hero bets $1.17, BN raises to $2.34, Hero raises to $7.00, BN raises to $11.66, Hero calls $4.66
Well, delay cbetting for sure.. got raised, my thoughts:
1. I dont expect many slowplayed hands on a pretty wet flop, only 44
2. The raise seems to me more like a merge raise from Kx which maybe wants to avoid a river bet.. I think the 3bet looks pretty strong and I am really lacking bluffs.. I also think that if he just calls his range might be decently capped to a K, so we might be firing many rivers.. I think this nitfish guy might be able to find some exploitative folds
River ($25.17) 5 K Q 4 9
Hero bets $15.41 and is all in
After I got almost direct odds to call.. I had him on 55,44,KQ,QQ. I was planning to donk bet on every 9 and A, because he doesnt expect JT and might be potentially checking back some 9h or any Ace river

Sept. 24, 2020 | 8:57 a.m.

4bet 11% - its on lower side of spectrum, obviously 2k hands is not enough to get reliable sample on that stat but in long run I really doubt he is 4betting a lot AK there. Even in equilibrium its like 50% or more flat preflop, almost certainly player with low 4bet is flatting even more.

Why do you think he is not opening KQo on MP? 20/13 is not that tight on full ring games. Also his big VPIP/PFR suggest that he can be weaker player + he is folding only 36% to 3bet so I think its very likely that actually he has a lot of KQo in his range

Thats exactly the answer I was searching for.. Thanks for finding this missinterpretation!:)
11% 4bet was confusing me, because I didnt realized that given his MP OR, 11% 4bet is actually pretty tight (now I saw it black and white in equilab:))
And also the second point: since I have played much more 6max than 9max, its again an intuitive mistake.. and I see it on my FR stats which are 17/13 and I am not actually that nitty (at least pre:))

Thanks again, cheers:)

Sept. 24, 2020 | 7:03 a.m.

Postflop can not fold, with 55BB on the flop and after cbet it is even more. Expect to see AA a lot but either way would lose against that

That was pretty similar to what I was thinking about in game.. On the other hand, do we wish to see AQ or theory-balanced bluffs in 4b pot by him?

Yeah the stats are from FR, but 13/11 is still on a tighter side and if he isnt valuebetting worse, I wouldnt try to rely on bluffs. So then again, I am just reaching to the point where I am asking, cant we really find a fold?

Sept. 24, 2020 | 6:45 a.m.

I like the idea of shoving pre... however, probably not against tight 3bettors..

Anyway, what's your approach OTF?

Sept. 23, 2020 | 3:59 p.m.

From which hands do you expect to get called by?

Sept. 23, 2020 | 3:53 p.m.

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (8 Players) MP+1: $25.47
CO: $58.28
BN: $14.69
SB: $30.14 (Hero)
BB: $25.00
UTG: $19.54
UTG+1: $34.89
MP: $32.55
20/13 2k
F3b 36; 4b 11
AG 30/28/30
FCB 53/42/33
WTSD 29; WSD 52; WWSF 38
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with A Q
3 folds, MP+1 raises to $0.58, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BB folds, MP+1 calls $1.67
Kinda optmistic 3bet given his stats.. I think I should have folded pre.. he isnt folding enough, so that we dont have enough FE, he is also pretty tight pre, so isnt a value 3bet either. In addition we will face a 4b 11% of the time.
Flop ($4.75) 4 J T
Hero bets $1.50, MP+1 calls $1.50
Since my 3betting range from the SB is fairly linear incl. TT and JJ, I think I can go here with 1/3 range bet (esp. if I dont have KQo which is this case..)
Turn ($7.75) 4 J T K
Hero bets $5.25, MP+1 calls $5.25
Checking here is out of question given his overall aggression.. Time for picking the right sizing.. could go slightly smaller to still get called by AJs,ATs.
River ($18.25) 4 J T K K
Hero bets $4.75, MP+1 raises to $16.47 and is all in, Hero folds
Well.. I was wondering whether I wanna go smallish or just shove.
Final Pot MP+1 wins $26.50
Rake is $1.25

Sept. 23, 2020 | 3:13 p.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: 4b pot, OOP on Q89s flop
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BB: $36.73
UTG: $25.35 (Hero)
MP: $11.36
CO: $25.63
BN: $19.65
SB: $21.12
13/11 428
3b 5.5
Fold to 4b 20 (but prob small sample)
AGf 35 (so he isnt super aggro OTF)
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $0.87, MP folds, CO raises to $2.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $6.75, CO calls $4.25
I usually 4b KK+ here and sometimes QQ,AK and rarely KQo/A5s,A4s,AJo as a bluff (but need to have a read to do that)
Flop ($13.85) Q 8 9
Hero bets $4.75, CO raises to $18.88 and is all in, Hero
Sticking with my most common range here KK+, it makes sense to bet small OTF to push equity.. after we got raised, from the theory point of view, we are supposed to call all of our Aces and few Kings.
From the exploitative point of view, I dont think this line gets bluffed enough. In addition, I do think his range is already super tight due to the preflop action.. expecting mostly JJ-QQ,AK,AQs and probably slowplayed AA (KK). Therefore if he raises, I believe he has got either QQ or AA (sometimes AdKd and rarely JJ and KK).
With KK we arent dominating any portion of his valuebetting range and beating only few bluffs..
Holding AA gives us a little chance on domination KK and split equity with AA.. I am not a huge fan of this call either, but I would rather make a slightly -ev call with AA than folding everything and losing my whole vision regarding his range

Sept. 23, 2020 | 8:59 a.m.

I would be cautious with overbetting as you should be blasting a lot on turn - board is completely crushed by your range so if you check then he can be suspicious, especially if you overbet representing only Qx.

I totally agree with that, however, I think this applies against thinking regs or let's simplifies it against all regs..
Since I wouldn't categorize this player as a reg (vpip,pfr,WTSD,WSD), I don't think we should be that cautious about it.

Btw shouldn't we use more his WTSD and WSD? I mean the combination of both says that this guy is usually either bluffing too much (but not really, because of his AGf) or calling too much rivers which is imo this case.. soo I am just asking whether we should also takr this into consideration or not:)

Sept. 23, 2020 | 5:21 a.m.

Would be curious to see your results after a decent sample
I think (based on what I've seen here) you are a theory type of guy.. don't get me wrong, it's absolutely fine if it suits you the best..
I am basically playing the opposite style and sometimes just feel like you're printing what snowie says in situations where we already know that our villain plays a strategy totally far from gto..

Anyway, all it's just my opinion, so don't take it personally:)

Sept. 22, 2020 | 6:13 p.m.

Look at the hud stats we have, and think again:)

Sept. 22, 2020 | 4:27 p.m.

  1. Yeah, agree and know- I am just exploiting the pool tendencies- overfolding on blinds+ folding too much vs a flop cbet

  2. Given our reads and hud, I think it makes sense to go b/b/b and in general I think that either b/x/_ or b/b/b might be the way to go vs the pool.. because esp on this turn it's not that hard to be overcalling (all pair+draw type of hands..)

  3. Makes snese

  4. Agree, don't expect to get bluffed by PPs... at nl25

Sept. 22, 2020 | 4:26 p.m.

That's kinda why I asked OP what his pre-flop calling range would be

Not sure, definitely tight.. I will be overfolding to his 3bet a ton.. Sth like 99-QQ,AJs+,AKo.
But I wanna play hand vs range strategy vs this guy who seemingly isnt playing GTO..
Agree with what RaoulFlush said, that if he has Cb 83, it means that on this board we will see a range cbet quite often.. Even vs a range JJ+,AK we have 26.98% equity, so it becomes pretty clear call.
Might check his turn cbet stat, but after flop range cbet, the turn is supposed to be checked pretty often.
Also this guy doesnt seem to be a wild donkey, so we can expect pretty straightforward play I would say.

Sept. 22, 2020 | 10:36 a.m.

Haha, its very interesting that I made a play which is almost identical with what you are advocating Mudkip :))
Just used my timebank - to be perceived as trying to bluff him and then bet 1/2pot.
You can guess the result ;)
He had QTo.

Anyway I think there is a difference between aggro guys like this who are more inclined to think like: "oooh I have to call the split, because he wants to steal the pot with anytwo" so that their willingness to call with anytwo is much higher, therefore I would more focus on trying to find the sizing for which they are willing to call regardless of their holdings.

In a vacuum, I think we might be better off to just target their flushes and bomb it.. maybe even bigger than 1x pot.

Sept. 22, 2020 | 10:26 a.m.

Comment | MatoStar commented on Feeling call...

As mentioned, my feeling was to call which I also made in game and he had AKo.. which both of you guys kinda expected..

But agree with the point of indifference between calling and folding.. might be also mind game involved.. when you can get into the villain head and see whether he perceives you as a more nitty or aggro guy (a.k.a Matt Berkey style:))

Sept. 22, 2020 | 10:19 a.m.

Hand History | MatoStar posted in NLHE: Bluffing vs capped range - sizing?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) CO: $34.64
BN: $46.89 (Hero)
SB: $47.81
BB: $25.00
UTG: $11.62
UTG+1: $37.75
MP: $53.02
MP+1: $25.00
MP+2: $24.75
35/19 1.2k
3b 5.5
FCB 41/45/60 (based on that I could go for b/b/b line)
WTSD 30
WSD 45
Ag 34/36/32
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with 4 7
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.55, SB folds, BB calls $0.30
Flop ($1.20) K T J
BB checks, Hero bets $0.38, BB calls $0.38
Turn ($1.96) K T J 8
BB checks, Hero checks
I missed his fold to river cbet, so I played my general blue print - this turn card interacts so well with his flop calling range that I think we havent enough fold equity to bet here profitably.
River ($1.96) K T J 8 A
BB checks, Hero bets
Now, I would put him on very few straights (up to 10%), some twopairs (15-20%), top pairs (40-50%), weaker pairs (20-25%).
My gut feeling tells me that trying to fold out TP and worse might be the way to go, using 100-150% of the pot..
Maybe even 2.-2.5x to challenge twopairs as well.. what do you think about it?

Sept. 22, 2020 | 9:11 a.m.

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