Just trying to find some leaks in my game.. Even if I am a winning player, I think I could be better. Therefore I was trying to find some leaks.. and here is one. I found that 0-5bb and 5-10bbs pots are great in terms of winrate. However, 10-15,15-20.. all the way up till 60bbs, I am just losing a ton. Constantly in subgroups its around -40bb/100.
What kind of conclusion can I take away?
What should be my respond to sth like this in order to get better?
This was from nl2-nl20. 5max/9max
July 8, 2020 | 12:47 p.m.
BB: $25.40 (Hero)
SB is a tight reg
Now I think I like to just bet fold to get max value from 8x and weaker twopairs.. I would probably made it around 1/3 of the pot. Dont expect to get bluffed often enough.. maybe some T9, but I really think that this guy(60/8) is checking back such a hand like that pretty frequently. I also dont expect many thin value bets, so thats another reason for betting.
Rake is $0.24
July 7, 2020 | 9:32 a.m.
Snowie: well balanced limping range, GTO player --- button is isolating with much tighter range --- your defending range is much tighter
Population: Weak/capped limping range, usually rec player --- button isolates wider --- you can defend wider
I would rather 3bet hands like this which play poorly MW OOP, as well as AJo for instance. Calling rather pocket pairs, suited hands.
July 7, 2020 | 9:19 a.m.
Yep, folding turn seems okay.
Imo preflop is just a fold at these stakes, rake is so high. Especially having a shortstack on the button- you'll be playing a lot of spots with the marginal hand OOP.
At higher stakes with smaller sizing pre, it's okay (but still close) open.
July 6, 2020 | 1:27 p.m.
Thanks guys, I agree that the river is a fold and the flop is already pretty close, but I am.more inclined to call just because the reg is kinda tight, so that he doesn't have 88-99 all the time+ the weird sizing..
Anyway the reg folded - doubt that he would fold a set/flush so he either had a random bluff (really unlikely) or an overpair (most likely).
However, the fish had Ah7h.
July 6, 2020 | 9:29 a.m.
What are his natural bluffs? I can think of AdXd and 98s. Assuming 2:1 ratio, we need to find his value hands. In order to this, we need to ask ourselves: what is the bottom of his valuebetting range? I would guess it's Jx (not sure about AA, but seems a bit thin given the fact that AK is a close call for us).
JTs,J9s,QJs,KJs,AJ,QQ,ATs,T9s,JJ,KK= 24combos. Assuming that he isn't slowplaying any of the mentioned combos. Then we have to find 12 bluffs at least. 7 combos of AdXd + 98s (4) = makes in total 11 combos of bluffs.
That said, I think it's more likely that he isn't fastplaying all mentioned value combos than the probability that he isn't bluffing AdXd and 98s. So I don't mind calling here, but I would fold. I think that even for an aggro guy, it's hard to be massively overbluffing (what other bluffs we can add? There aren't many.. and the value remains the same).
On the other hand you might be dealing with a more nitty guy who is still vbetting the similar amount of hands, but he is really short on bluffs.
Combining these two scenarios together, I think we are slightly better off folding (but still dependent on your pool.
July 3, 2020 | 10:28 a.m.
I like to check the turn. With intention to check/call twice probably. There are some JTs, AcJx hands which he might turn into a bluff. We also have some split equity from AK (if called pre).
However, if you think that your opponent isnt capable of bluffing it OTR, then I like the option to bet the turn with 1/3-1/2 sizing and bet 1/3 OTR. Because you are assuming that he is short on bluffs, therefore I am no longer concerned about getting bluff/raised, so I would bet/fold.
June 30, 2020 | 10:20 a.m.
CO: $25.35 (Hero)
MP: 17/11, F3b 44, Agf 31/30/23, WSD 57, 1.2k
BB: 44/5 97
However, got raised by the reg player.. not sure why the hell he would use such a small size with sets? Also not sure if 88-99 are in his range preflop. I felt like its TT-QQ as a protection/value raise. Having a Kc I think we are getting really good odds - 12%, so cant fold right now I guess.
June 30, 2020 | 9:52 a.m.
UTG+1: $34.73 (Hero)
overall he is pretty passive and it looks like we should be pretty careful once this guy is showing an aggression
Dont expect that he is raising with worse flushes.. so then is he turning pairs into a bluff?
On the other hand, what value does he represent KQo?,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc?? It doesnt seem like a common line with these holdings to me.
June 29, 2020 | 2:03 p.m.
Whats your 3betting range preflop? How many Qx youve got? I think its kinda crucial whether you are 3betting AQ,KQ,QJs,QTs preflop or not.
To the hand: I would size it up OTT.. his range is mostly like compounded from pair+draw at least which are calling inelastically, so I would use maybe like a pot bet size or so.
The river is tricky as I said.. but I dont like check/calling though.. as I said earlier, most of his range are 1pair+ hands.. possibly 8s7s,7s6s,9s8s but some guys are folding those to a 3b preflop, some might raise the flop or turn.. soo from 3 possible combos, you are likely to see 1 at best.. compared with how many Qx they have got (QJs,KQs,AQ,QTs,Q9s). So he should be vbetting some worse hand in order to make a hero call with KK.
Well, do you really think he would value bet here TT.JJ with that sizing? Why he would go AI if he can use smaller sizing and get more calls from weaker hands?
So I would probably just go for a small bet/fold since I dont expect to get bluffraised nearly often.. and also you are choosing the bet size with your KK.. I dont want to be dictated by my opponent vs his TT-JJ hands.. so I would make it like 1/4 exploitatively
June 28, 2020 | 1 p.m.
Not sure how strong your read is regarding being one and done.. but if he really is, I would rather just float the flop - fold to another barrel/bet the river if check through.
The turn card in general doesnt really help us.. our bluffs didnt pick any additional equity.. only change is that, it decreased our value combos - 22,,K2s,J2s and KJ is now not that strong.. so I like to check here even a whole range after raising the flop.
The river is probably a player dependent decision. Vs a guy who is value betting any K, I prob like to bet.. but in a vacuum, I feel like people tend to check back KT and worse here pretty often (since they arent thin vbetting enough) and therefore I think that their range is pretty much Jx,Kx and some AQ,AT,AcXc type of hands. Expecting to fold out 33-TT OTF (if he cbets the flop with them).
That said, vs that range, I would be more inclined to use smaller sizing if so. But imo, I would prefer to just check since his range seems to be pretty strong and I dont expect substantial amount of fold equity once we bet
June 28, 2020 | 12:51 p.m.
Tough, but I dont think you can fold this river. You are blocking some flushes and also there is some non-zero chance that he might be value betting worse - 99-QQ,86s.82s,62s. (yeah, giving him some loose calls pre, since his line looks weak - flop, turn donks and the half pot sizing on all streets as well.
Also the river card is a good one - since you are dominating some twopairs now
Still its nl2, his line is indicating some kind of volatility.. and vs these player profiles, you want to be calling much wider in general.. they are valuebetting incorrectly, clicking buttons etc.. so instead of making some exploitative folds, you should be better off doing the opposite.
June 28, 2020 | 12:38 p.m.
Yep, agree with checking the turn.
Btw your 3b size is way too small.. BTN is getting really good odds to call.. I recommend to make it like 4x as you are OOP (9-9.5$)
June 28, 2020 | 11:07 a.m.
I would be trying to get it in preflop.. dont want to play oop in 4bet pot without the initiative. Your hand is just strong enough to 5b shove in these positions.
Flop I would just call.. not sure what your 4b calling range is, but he certainly has AK,KK and AA in his range, so it just favors him and also he could be potentially bet/folding with some bluffs (AQ,AJ) so I like to just let him bluff again OTT - to target our 99-QQ type of hands.
June 28, 2020 | 11 a.m.
the flop sizing is generally fine.. but vs this type of guy, I would rather cbet smaller - it looks like he is folding a ton no matter the sizing. Therefore I would cbet just 1/3 or so..
Not sure what is your question, but def value betting the river. I would probably go for 2/3 bet to get value from A2,A4,AT,42s, lower flushes and possibly 8x
June 28, 2020 | 10:54 a.m.
MP+2: $20.00 (Hero)
June 26, 2020 | 12:27 p.m.
I would just cbet 1/3 on this flop. As you said, you can comfortably barrel multiple turns, so it doesnt really matter if they float wide on this flop - since we are gonna attack their wider range OTT often enough.
The turn is kinda meh and I would probably just check, after the 2/3 bet OTF, I doubt you have any real fold equity.. the intention of barreling the river seems ok, but I dont have enough confidence that they do fold somewhat often enough to incentivize me to pull the trigger. You are also bluffing a hand like JT = 16combos as well as some 8x hands.
On this river I would deviate from our intention from the turn. I dont think this river gets overfolded.. he is well protected by 5x after calling the turn and also lot of pair+8x in his range which may consider heroing with the best blockers. I think I like to bet on a K,A,4,2,J,Q and diamond rivers.
June 25, 2020 | 11:08 a.m.
June 25, 2020 | 10:58 a.m.
Could be possibly thin vbetting TT? I would more likely see his 3b stat..
but yeah, if you are balanced OTT with your checking range, you shouldnt be concerned about folding the river. Vs this sizing its almost never a bluff and only possible worse value is TT I guess which could 3b preflop. So I would just fold.
When regs use these smaller sizings, at least in this case, its saying that they want calls, so I am eve more incentivized to do the opposite.
June 25, 2020 | 10:57 a.m.
Vs a more aggro guy I would just x/c (probably twice).
As played, calling once looks good (could be sth merge which would likely check the turn). You can also call any diamond turn and J (prob even K as well). That said, you have direct odds to call the flop with intention to call only mentioned turns
June 25, 2020 | 10:46 a.m.
Agree with most of your thoughts, except of the fact that 19/10 means that there is ahigher chance that he is a weaker reg. Mainly because those stats are from 9max and being a on a bit tighter side might be vs certain players the highest ev option.
If he is vbetting only flushes, then we should probably call (really few combos, based on his 3bet). On the other hand when you have a 3b stat of 5 in 9max, your 3bet SBvsBTN could be even 10 or higher. Therefore we can include more combos of flushes
Some players might value bet even KhKx or check the turn with non-nut flushes at some frequency. Tough to say whether guys at nl25 are turning pairs into a bluff in these lines. But my value range is also pretty strong, probably AJ+, so we are not getting exploited by folding 33 here. That said, I would rather pay for the showdown with better hand than a bottom set.
June 24, 2020 | 3:30 p.m.
Agree with all, but this is the guide we should use mainly vs thinking players/regulars, isnt it?
However, we are dealing with 78/8 fish. I believe that he might call the turn with a hand like AJ or so. If he slowplays QT OTF, or other twopairs, I think we have a value bet OTR. Also you might get called by other Qx. Thats a lot of combos, mainly the offsuit ones (QJo.KQo.Q9o)..
That said, I like it vs this guy. In a vacuum, I would stick with the lIlCitanul comment:)
June 23, 2020 | 11:39 a.m.
I wasnt sure about the flop raise since I was scared of his 3bet, so that I would be forced to fold set with some outs..
Agree that turn size could be larger.. on the other hand, if he did a range bet OTF, we dont need to be stabbing with such a large size, do we?
Just wasnt sure, since he raised the river pretty quickly.. but found a fold in game, just felt a bit exploitable.
June 23, 2020 | 11:32 a.m.
BN: $25.69 (Hero)
3b 4.5 (thats pretty low)
But what hands makes sense to take his line KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h and? QhXh flushes? are they check/calling the turn? Or is he vbetting even KK now?
Should we use this sizing when vbetting with flushes (or even with sets)?
June 22, 2020 | 1:54 p.m.
Yep, as you said you can bet/fold exploitatively and you'll immediately gain the advantage over the 80% of the pool who are just not capable of folding overpair at any point of the hand.
There's no value in his range which you would dominate except of slowplayed QQ and KK, but the frequency with which they take this line isn't that high to justify calling here.
At higher stakes you can consider checking turn for protection, but at these stakes just go bet/bet/bet and if they raise (esp OTT and OTR, just fold and feel happy about it:))
June 20, 2020 | 8:52 a.m.
Why did you bet so small OTF?
At these stakes I would just go 2/3 bet, because if they have a heart - they will call you.
If they hit a pair, the same result.
Turn I would cbet again, value betting vs pair+gutter/draw hands or even weaker two pairs. On safe river I would just go bet/fold, bet/fold. Why he would ever raise worse vs your strength? This board just smashes your range.. even stupid villain knows that after you 3bet, you have KK,AA,AK and they barely expect to fold out you from these hands..
They are generally underbluffing in these lines (even at higher stakes though).
Dont look at your absolute value of your hand and rather focus on what your opponents could be raising ( or what would you raise being in V shoes). I think you can get better idea of what type of range is playing against after he raised the turn
June 19, 2020 | 11:23 a.m.
BN: $28.15 (Hero)
But still he is probably on a nitty side. Also not sure how many FDs am I raising OTT.. mainly the nut ones I would say.. not sure think I should call having possibly some split equity and sometimes dominating a portion of his vbetting range.